Zooming Out to Look at the Rally

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Our View

I looked at some longer term charts of the ES and the NQ. 

• On May 2, the ES traded 5100.75 and on June 19 the ES traded up to 5588.00 — that’s a 587.25 point rally in 33 sessions. 

• On May 31, the ES traded 5270.00 and on June 19 the ES traded 5588.00 — that’s a 318 point rally in 14 sessions. 

• On Friday June 14 the ES traded 5462.25 and on Monday June 17th, it traded 5561.00 — a 99 point gain in just three days. 

These are just a few examples and it's been an incredible run, but if you go back six months ago, the ES made a low at 4825.00 on Jan 4 and traded up to 5479.25 on 2/27/24 — a 653.75 point rally. 

Zooming out even more, the ES traded 4291.00 on 10/26/2023, climbing 1,297 points to the current high of 5588. 

Where am I going with this? The S&P has outperformed Wall Street analyst expectations by a long shot and no doubt is in need of a pullback/selloff at some point. There is an abundance of talking heads saying we could go lower — but that's what the talking heads have been saying all year.