Will Santa Come to Town?

Fed's on tap.

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Our View

When you take the ESZ/ESM spreads out of the ES’s overall volume, it’s pitiful. There is little doubt that the lower volumes have been playing a role over the last few days — AKA, the “thin to win” we’ve been talking about.

The higher the ES goes, the lower the volume. I know there have been longer rallies, but since November 1st, there have been 29 sessions: 21 up and 8 down. In other words, 72.4% were up and 27.5% were down. In the next few days, I will elaborate further on that.

Below in the Lean, I have a very special Q&A with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade

This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.

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MiM and Daily Recap

ES 15-min

The ES traded up to 4696.25 on Globex just after the release of the CPI number for November rose 0.1%, while core gained 0.3%. The ES then sold off down to new lows at 4670.50 at 9:29 and opened Tuesday's regular session at 4672.25. After the open, the ES traded 4675.75, sold off down to a 4662.25 double bottom at 9:45 and slowly but surely ground its way up to 4689.00 at 2:01. 

Yes, there were some small 4- to 6-point pullbacks, but it was 'slow' grind higher. After the high, the ES pulled back to the 4684.25 level at 2:19 and then rallied back up to a new high at 4687.50 at 12:37, did an hour and a half of chop, and then blasted up to 4697.50 at 3:21. The ES traded 4649.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.2 billion to sell and traded 4698.00 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 4701.75 and settled at 4600.50, up 23.50 points or +0.50 % on the day.

In the end, the ES and NQ were in “buy mode” all day. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was firm. In terms of the ES's trade, volume was low again: 285k traded on Globex and 874k traded on the day session for a total of 1.159 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 37% Upside Volume 

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 47% Upside Volume 

  • Advance/Decline: 46% Advance 

  • VIX: ~12.00

S&P 500 — ES Futures

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Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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