- The Opening Print
- Posts
- Wild Week Ahead
Wild Week Ahead
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
From July 1 through July 24, there were 17 trading sessions: 6 positive sessions totaling +1,883.00 points and +6.43%, and 11 negative sessions totaling -4,224.00 points and -14.25%, for a net decline of 2,341.00 points, or 7.82%.
From July 13 through July 23, there were 9 trading sessions: 3 positive sessions totaling +857.25 points and +2.96%, and 6 negative sessions totaling -2,268.75 points and -7.68%, for a net decline of 1,411.50 points, or 4.72%.
While there are daily or constant rotations—last Friday, it was buying the YM—the weakness in the Nasdaq is the prevailing wind.
That all said, we are not in a bear market, nor are we even close to a 10% correction. But what I can say is that the week ahead could be very telling for the markets.
Monday Breakdown: Past 8 Weeks
Date | Net Change | Performance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
07/20/2026 | +5.50 | +0.02% | Higher Close |
07/13/2026 | -556.50 | -1.85% | Lower Close |
07/06/2026 | +385.00 | +1.30% | Higher Close |
06/29/2026 | +684.50 | +2.33% | Higher Close |
06/22/2026 | -66.25 | -0.22% | Lower Close |
06/15/2026 | +909.50 | +3.04% | Higher Close |
06/08/2026 | +433.00 | +1.48% | Higher Close |
06/01/2026 | +161.75 | +0.53% | Higher Close |
Trump is known for pushing things to the brink, and after 13 straight days of attacking Iran, he ordered the U.S. military to hold off its strikes to give diplomatic negotiations room to progress, specifically Oman-mediated talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting that Iranian officials are getting “more and more serious,” while at the same time he continues to send more U.S. troops, medics, and weaponry to the Middle East.
Through Friday, July 24, all 4 major stock indexes were down for the month, led lower by tech and small caps: the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.72% (1,237.90 points), the Russell 2000 is down 3.12% (94.37 points), the S&P 500 is down 1.17% (87.38 points), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.71% (371.95 points).
I know the markets don't look great, and this week could be a make-or-break moment that includes the PCE number, the two-day Fed meeting, two Treasury auctions, and Trump needing to get a ceasefire and deal.
During the 13 days from July 13 to July 26, the U.S. national average for regular gasoline has gone up by approximately 25 cents per gallon, according to AAA Fuel Data. We all know that, with bonds and notes down sharply, the U.S. debt nearing $40 trillion, and rising energy prices, it all spells higher inflation and higher interest rates.
Can the markets overcome the deluge of news this week?
The final week can benefit from normal month-end buying, but the last trading day of July has developed a modest bearish bias. This year, seasonality could easily be overwhelmed by the FOMC decision, GDP, PCE inflation, major technology earnings, and month-end portfolio rebalancing.
My main concern is that Trump has really backed himself into a corner, and the next 4 months before the midterm elections have higher volatility written all over them.
Goldman Sachs said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted for over 10 weeks and leads to persistent output losses of approximately 2M bpd, Brent could spike toward $120–$135 per barrel, which we all know won't act as a positive.
Our lean: That all said, I think we can bounce today. 6 of the last 8 Mondays have been up, but can the ES and NQ hold the rally? That is the million-dollar question. What I can say is that the ES is trading at the same price it was on 05/06/26, or 41 sessions ago, when it settled at 7446.50.
The ES traded in a narrow 7469.00 to 7533.75 Globex trading range, with 185k contracts traded, and opened Friday's regular session at 7444.00.
After the open, the ES rallied 11 points up to 7455.00, sold off 23.50 points down to 7431.50, rallied 27.25 points up to 7458.75 at 10:15, sold off 26.50 points down to a higher low at 7432.25 at 10:45, and rallied 64.25 points up to the high of the day at 7496.50 at 12:00.
The ES then sold off 35.50 points down to 7461.00 at 1:00, rallied up to 7481.00 at 1:30, sold off 49.00 points down to 7432.00 at 3:29, rallied up to 7451.00 at 3:45, and traded 7442.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2 billion to buy. It traded 7447.75 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7439.25 and settled at 7444.00, up 2.5 points, or +0.03%. The NQ settled at 28,282.25, down 338.50 points, or -1.18%; the YM settled up 230 points, or +0.44%; and the RTY settled at 52,124, down 1040 points, or -0.35%, on the day.
In the end, it was sort of a mishmash. The NQ was weak early, but the ES kept going bid, and that's when I posted this, with the ES trading around 7445.00:
IMPRO:Dboy:[10:05:49 AM]: I think a rip is coming.
Two hours later, it rallied 51.50 points up to 7496.50 but reversed back near its lows late in the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, despite the rally and the NQ weakness, the ES and YM closed higher on the day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was decent but not big, at 1.37 million contracts traded.
Can Things Go From Bad To Worse This Week?
After Google and TSLA reported earnings, both stocks tanked. GOOG dropped another 6% on Friday, and TSLA was down 14%, but that only added to the overall weakness of the Magnificent 7, as it suffered its largest daily drop since April 2025.
According to Bloomberg, the group of mega-cap stocks that includes Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta (META) lost roughly $797 billion in market value.
And guess what? Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) report on Wednesday, July 29, and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) report on Thursday, July 30.
In addition to the “mega” earnings:
Monday, July 27, 8:30 AM: June Durable-Goods Orders
Tuesday, July 28, 9:00 AM: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Tuesday, July 28, 10:00 AM: July Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, July 29, 2:00 PM: FOMC Interest-Rate Decision
Wednesday, July 29, 2:30 PM: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference
Thursday, July 30, 8:30 AM: Second-Quarter GDP
Thursday, July 30, 8:30 AM: Weekly Jobless Claims
Thursday, July 30, 8:30 AM: Personal Income and Consumer Spending
Thursday, July 30, 8:30 AM: June PCE and Core PCE Inflation
Friday, July 31, 8:30 AM: Second-Quarter Employment Cost Index
Friday, July 31, 9:45 AM: Chicago PMI
Friday, July 31, 10:00 AM: Final July Consumer Sentiment
The three biggest market-moving events are Wednesday’s Fed decision, Thursday’s GDP and PCE inflation releases, and Friday’s Employment Cost Index.
The current median forecasts include 2.1% GDP growth, 3.7% headline PCE, 3.3% core PCE, and a 0.8% quarterly Employment Cost Index increase.
MarketWatch Economic Calendar
New York Fed Calendar
Treasury supply will also be heavy: 2-year and 5-year note auctions Monday, a 7-year note auction Tuesday, and a 2-year floating-rate note auction Wednesday.
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, July 24, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 36% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 88 / 73
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 108 / 262
NYSE TRIN: 1.18
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.37
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, July 24, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 36% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 175 / 212
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 271 / 633
NYSE TRIN: 0.75
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.59
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
DTG Room Preview – Monday, July 27, 2026
Market Tone
US equity futures are higher as renewed Strait of Hormuz talks and a pause in US strikes on Iran ease geopolitical concerns.
Oil prices are pulling back, reducing inflation pressure and supporting tech, transportation, manufacturing, and cyclical stocks.
Sentiment remains sensitive to any change in the tone of regional negotiations.
Rates and Inflation
Sticky services inflation and recent upside price pressures are keeping the possibility of a more hawkish Fed in focus.
Higher rate expectations could pressure equity valuations, particularly in tech and consumer discretionary.
Front-end Treasury yields remain an important intraday signal for ES and NQ.
Nvidia and AI
Nvidia is in focus following reports of a major multi-year memory and AI infrastructure agreement with SK Hynix and SK Telecom.
The deal supports Nvidia’s long-term demand outlook and could help semiconductors regain market leadership.
Investors remain cautious around the cost of AI-related capital spending and potential regulatory pressure.
Economic Calendar
Durable Goods Orders: 8:30 a.m. ET
Earnings
Before the open: AstraZeneca, Coca-Cola FEMSA
After the close: AMKR, BRO, CDNS, CLS, CINF, FFIV, NUE, SANM, VIV, TFII, ENSG, TIMB, WELL
A larger group of companies, including Coca-Cola, PayPal, Boeing, UPS, Barclays, and Royal Caribbean, reports Tuesday morning.
Volatility and Positioning
ES volatility eased Friday but remains moderately elevated.
The five-day average daily range fell to 83.75 points from 91.75 points.
Overnight large-trader activity leaned bearish but was too light to establish a meaningful bias.
Geopolitical headlines and political commentary remain potential volatility catalysts.
ES Technical Outlook
ES remains constructive after holding above the 7417–7422 support trendline late last week.
The 50-day moving average near 7536 is the main nearby resistance and could be tested today.
The upper resistance trendline at 7619–7624 is less likely to come into play unless momentum strengthens.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7536, 7619–7624, 7790–7795
Support: 7417–7422, 7155–7160
