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Our View

Today, there are going to be four distinct parts to the trading session:

1. What happens on Globex

2. What happens after the 9:30 open

3. What happens in the final hour

4. What happens after $NVDA reports earnings

It's all eyes on Nvidia... Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect Nvidia to post another strong beat-and-raise quarter when it reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the close today.

The banks are aligned with Nvidia’s $54B revenue guidance (range $52.9B–$55B) and consensus EPS of approximately $1.25–$1.26, with both firms anticipating upside driven by continued AI data-center demand, Blackwell GPU ramps, and a massive order backlog.

Goldman (Buy, $250 PT) and JPMorgan (Overweight, $250 PT) each value the stock at roughly 42× 2026 earnings and see any near-term weakness around the print as a buying opportunity, maintaining that the multi-year AI infrastructure cycle remains firmly intact.

Options markets are pricing in a massive ±7% post-earnings move for Nvidia—one of the largest ever. The at-the-money straddle is implying a ±$12.68 swing from Tuesday’s $181.13 close (trading range: $168–$194). This translates to a potential $320 billion single-day change in market cap, the biggest dollar move ever tied to a corporate earnings event.

This 7% implied move is well above Nvidia’s recent average actual move of 4%, but it reflects heightened uncertainty around AI demand, Blackwell ramps, China restrictions, and hyperscale CapEx sustainability.

With billions in gamma exposure at stake, volatility across semis and the Nasdaq is likely to spike—regardless of direction.

Market Recap

After a solid finish to Monday's close, the ES picked up where it left off, going down to 6635.50 on Globex and opening Tuesday's regular session at 6656.75. After the open, the ES traded 6675.50 and dropped 29 points down to 6646.50 in the first minute, rallied up to 6679.00, and then dropped 75.75 points down to 6603.25 at 10:00. It then rallied up to 6639.00, sold off to a higher low 0.75 points at 11:00, rallied 20.5 points up to 6659.50 at 11:35, sold off 44.75 points down to another higher low at 6614.75 at 12:30, and just smoked 6680.50 at 1:10.

The ES made a series of higher highs up to 6659.75 at 1:40, and then traded up to a double top just below the previous high at 6685.50 at 3:00. After the push up, the ES reversed down to 6650.75 at 3:25.

The ES traded 6644.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.9 billion to sell, which increased to almost $4 billion to sell, and traded 6637.50 on the 4:00 cash close. The ES traded down to 6624.75 and settled at 6639.75, down 52.25 points, or -0.78%, down 4 sessions in a row, totalling -236 points, a loss of -3.47%.

The NQ settled at 24,595.75, down 283.25 points or -1.14%, down 7 of the last 8 sessions, totalling 1,154.50 points or 4.55%, and down 1,507.50 points or 5.77% since the first trading day of October.

In the end, it was another rough day of big rips and dips. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted better than the NQ — but that’s not saying much. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 2.459 million contracts traded, the highest volume since October 10th (2.57 million).

AI Recap: U.S. stocks fell for a fourth straight session, with the Dow dropping 498 points (−1.07%) to 46,091, the S&P 500 sliding 0.83% to 6,617, and the Nasdaq declining 1.21% to 22,433, as both mega-cap tech (Nvidia, AMD, Marvell, Micron) and old-economy names like Home Depot (−6% after slashing guidance) came under heavy pressure.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index officially entered correction territory, the VIX spiked 10.3% to 24.69, and investor anxiety over an AI bubble reached new heights, with 45% of fund managers now citing it as the top tail risk amid sky-high valuations and massive data-center debt buildup.

This sharp selloff stands in stark contrast to the past 16 years of quick, shallow bear markets that trained an entire generation to “buy the dip” aggressively, even in the junkiest names. Few participants today personally remember the deep, multi-year pain of 2007–09 or earlier recessions.

The rapid 4.3-month recovery from this year’s earlier swoon, led by AI and unprofitable speculative stocks, has only reinforced dangerous complacency. History shows that only long, recession-accompanied bear markets truly cleanse the system, destroy the previous mania’s excesses, and re-teach the market what capital is actually for. Until that painful but necessary lesson arrives, the stage remains set for an even bigger reckoning.

As I have always said, the Bull’s gotta eat too. Is the decline over? I don't know. But the Nasdaq has been down 6 sessions in a row three times in two years, and there were no 7-day declines over the same period.

On Tap:

The only major economic report of the day will be the delayed U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for August 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Earnings Before the Bell:

• TJX Companies ($TJX)

• Target ($TGT)

• Lowe’s ($LOW)

• Williams-Sonoma ($WSM)

• Viking Holdings ($VIK)

Earnings After the Close:

• Palo Alto Networks ($PANW)

• Nvidia ($NVDA)

Guest Posts

 Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: “The Blitzkrieg Assault” Director’s Cut

🎯 Session Synopsis

Cycle Day 1 didn’t just arrive — it parachuted in at dawn, kicked down the door, and shouted “Surprise inspection!” What began as your garden-variety CD1 softness detonated into a full-scale Blitzkrieg Assault: Director’s Cut, complete with bonus scenes the Bulls definitely didn’t ask for.

The opening bell rang and the tape charged forward like it had binge-watched Rocky I–IV on double speed. What should’ve been routine CD1 probing quickly devolved into a full-contact Rugby Match inside the 6665–6685 warzone — elbows up, helmets optional, egos absolutely bruised. Entry signals were sacrificed, stop orders died with honor, and at least three traders filed emotional damage claims against NinjaTrader.

Market Tape: Fast, Snappy, and Completely Unforgiving

Volatility was firing off 10-point uppercuts faster than a caffeinated kangaroo. You had two choices:

• Get green and stay green,
  or

• Stare at the chart like it was your first exposure to ancient Sanskrit.

Bulls tried to reclaim ground multiple times, but every rally attempt slammed face-first into a grizzled Bearish defensive line camped at 40–45. Their discipline was absolute: “You shall not pass.”

Price never convincingly held above ONL, never sniffed its way back into value, and never mounted anything resembling coordinated offense. The tape told the story plainly:

This CD1 belonged to the Bears, full custody, no visitation rights.

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 11.18.25 link.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: With CD1’s carnage dutifully archived in the war log and volatility now fully front-loaded, we rotate into Cycle Day 2 — the market’s traditional “clean up your room or you’re grounded” session. It’s the balancing day where both sides ice their bruises, recalibrate their ambitions, and pretend they didn’t just make questionable life choices at yesterday’s extremes.

Bulls must demonstrate actual vertebrae by reclaiming 6685–6690+ and finishing the day on the highs. After four straight red candles, a green close isn’t a luxury — it’s a reputational requirement. Fail to defend 6620 Value Low, and they’ll be handing Bears a morale boost wrapped in a gift bow.

Bears, for their part, maintain the tactical edge so long as price lives below 6665–6655. That’s their elevated firing position, and they’ll be more than happy to smack down any early-morning “reversal rally” the Bulls try to stealth-deploy before lunch.

Balance day? Absolutely.
Boring? You wish.
Opportunity? Always — if you stay sharp.

Discipline Mode: Flexible. Focused. Zero hero trades.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6640+-, initially targets 6655 – 6665 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6640+-, initially targets 6625 – 6620 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6679    PVA Low Edge = 6631         Prior POC = 6667

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM

MOC Recap

The MOC opened with a small positive imbalance but immediately flipped into a heavy sell program as NYSE flows dominated the tape. At 15:50 the market showed a modest +$23M buy imbalance, but by 15:51 the number declined to +$159M — the last positive imbalance on the MiM for the rest of the close. By 15:52 the auction reversed sharply to –$260M, and over the next three minutes the sell side accelerated to a session low of –$4.24B at 15:54. From there, the imbalance recovered but remained negative, settling near –$615M into the bell.

The sector profile confirms the rotation: Consumer Defensive (+74%), Consumer Cyclical (+78%), Technology (+55%), and Communication Services (+61%) showed clear buy lean, while Energy (–86%), Basic Materials (–76%), Real Estate (–76%), and Industrials (–64%) were aggressively sold. These extreme readings — many beyond ±66% — indicate wholesale repositioning rather than rotation.

Symbol-level flows reflect this divide. Heavy buyers included NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, and NVDA. On the sell side, large outflows hit LLY, MDT, GS, AXP, CRM, CSCO, AVGO, and META. The strongest buying clustered in Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer groups, while Financials and Energy were hit with broad liquidation.

Price aligned with the imbalance path. ES traded 6650–6647 through the build, then slipped into the 6630s as the –$4B imbalance peaked. A mild bounce followed as sell pressure eased into the close, but not enough to offset the earlier downside.

In all, the MOC showed aggressive institution-driven selling concentrated in NYSE and cyclical sectors, offset by targeted NASDAQ accumulation in large-cap tech and communication names.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for November 19, 2025:

• SP: 18.83

• NQ: 78.11

• Dow: 70.84

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, November 18, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 61% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 57% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 54% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 50% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 52% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 38 / 170

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 60 / 393

• NYSE TRIN: 0.73

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, November 14, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 45% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 41% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 43% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 286 / 170

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 401 / 522

• NYSE TRIN: 0.85

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.71

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Tuesday’s session was marked by early opportunities on the long side, platform disruptions mid-morning, and increasingly volatile, whippy price action that demanded precision and adaptability. The day ultimately trended weaker, with bears dominating into the close as a large MOC sell imbalance sealed the session’s tone.

Positive Trades & Wins:

• Early Long off Support Buy Zone (6648–6652 ES):
  This zone triggered nicely around 8:30 AM, producing a solid +5 pt move. Manny called it out live, referencing a strong bid and buyer defense—excellent confirmation of the morning’s trade plan.

• PeterN Passed an Evaluation Account:
  A standout achievement. He capitalized on early ORB setups and chose to step away after success—model discipline.

• Manny and Others Booked Early Gains:
  Manny reported a small win early and stayed green despite technical issues. Later in the morning, he emphasized the principle: “Take what you can, get green, stay green.”

Challenges & Lessons Learned:

• Platform Disruptions (NinjaTrader & Data Feeds):
  Several members, including Manny and PTGDavid, lost connection mid-morning, with NinjaTrader particularly affected. Cloudflare outages seemed to be the root cause. A key takeaway: having backup platforms and understanding the fragility of trading tech is critical.

• Missed Fills & Volatile Tape:
  A few traders narrowly missed fills (3 ticks off before a "gnarly" bounce).
  Lesson: “These occurrences rarely work in one's favor”—highlighting the importance of managing slippage and using well-placed orders.

• Fast Markets Required Fast Decisions:
  David repeatedly reminded the room of the whippy volatility: 10+ point swings in seconds. Many traders opted to preserve gains rather than overtrade in such conditions—a wise choice.

• Mixed Signals into the Close:
  Bears retained control through most of the day. A tug-of-war around the 6665–6685 range was described by David as a “Rugby Match” with heavy volume and broken momentum.
  The close brought a massive $4B MOC Sell Imbalance, confirming sellers’ dominance and sealing the day as a Cycle Day 1 Weakness.

Key Lessons:

1. Mastery over Quantity:
   David reinforced: “Master one setup and practice it 10,000 times.” Focus on repetition and consistency over chasing multiple trade ideas.

2. Tech Preparedness Matters:
   Platform failure is a real risk. Multiple traders highlighted the importance of not disconnecting once connected, and some leaned on backup platforms like Sierra or DeltaTrader.

3. Mental Composure is Part of the Edge:
   Manny wisely said, “Getting upset won’t help you trade better.” Staying emotionally stable helped several members stay out of poor trades.

Summary:

Despite tech issues and a very fast tape, the room extracted value from early setups, especially the Support Buy at 6648–6652. Adaptability and emotional control were the day's real edge. The afternoon favored bears, with large sell imbalances confirming downside pressure. The PTG team navigated the session with professionalism, discipline, and an emphasis on protecting capital.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!