Weekly Survey: 3rd Week in June

Author

Danny Riley
June 15, 2025

Weekly Breadthalyzer - Friday, June 13th, 2025

For the week ending June 13, 2025, the NYSE saw a noticeable decline in upside volume and advance percentages compared to the week ending June 6. NYSE upside volume dropped from 58% to 48.75%, and the NYSE Advance/Decline advance percent fell significantly from 67% to 39.85%. This indicates a clear shift towards more declining issues and selling pressure on the NYSE. Similarly, Nasdaq's advance percent decreased from 68% to 36.52%. However, Nasdaq's upside volume showed resilience, increasing from 61% to 66.82%, suggesting that while fewer stocks advanced, larger-cap tech stocks continued to see strong buying interest.

Overall total upside volume saw a slight increase to 61.17% from 60%, but the total advance percent across all exchanges decreased sharply from 69% to 39.66%. The number of NYSE new highs (168) and Nasdaq new highs (385) were lower than the week prior (188 and 411 respectively), while NYSE new lows (73) decreased and Nasdaq new lows (195) increased. The TRIN values for NYSE (0.70) and Nasdaq (0.29) were significantly lower last week compared to the week prior (1.44 and 1.32 respectively). This decline in TRIN values is generally a positive signal, indicating that a larger proportion of trading volume was in advancing stocks, suggesting improved internal market strength despite the decrease in advancing issues. This could imply a concentration of buying power in fewer, larger names.

While the overall uptrend in the S&P 500 remains intact, its breadth (percentage of stocks above 200-day SMA) saw a minor decline of 2%, and the Russell 2000 breadth experienced a more significant drop of 21%, suggesting a weakening in broader market participation, particularly among small-cap stocks. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are also showing modest negative divergence, suggesting a potential slowing of the "melt up" mode.

Breadth Stats:

  • Breadth Status Table (Week Ending June 13, 2025 vs. June 6, 2025):

    Metric

    Current Week's Status (Week Ending June 13, 2025)

    Previous Week's Status (Week Ending June 6, 2025)

    Change (Week-over-Week)

    S&P 500 Breadth (% above 200-day SMA)

    47%

    49%

    -2.00%

    Nasdaq Composite Breadth (% above 200-day SMA)

    64%

    64%

    0%

    Russell 2000 Breadth (% above 200-day SMA)

    44%

    65%

    -21%

    NYSE Breadth upside volume

    48.75%

    58%

    -9.25%

    Nasdaq Breadth upside volume

    66.82%

    61%

    +5.82%

    Total Upside Volume

    61.17%

    60%

    +1.17%

    NYSE Advance/Declines Advance Percent

    39.85%

    67%

    -27.15%

    Nasdaq Advance/Decline Advance Percent

    36.52%

    68%

    -31.48%

    Total Advance Percent

    39.66%

    69%

    -29.34%

    NYSE New Highs for the week

    168

    188

    -20

    Nasdaq New Highs for the week

    385

    411

    -26

    NYSE New Lows for the week

    73

    83

    -10

    Nasdaq New Lows for the week

    195

    191

    +4

    NYSE Trin

    0.70

    1.44

    -0.74

    Nasdaq Trin

    0.29

    1.32

    -1.03

    Note: The SMA-based breadth percentages are derived from market commentary citing Bloomberg. Detailed daily/weekly breadth metrics such as upside volume, advance/decline percentages, new highs/lows, and Trin values are based on FactSet and Dow Jones Market Data for Friday, June 13, 2025, and user-provided data for the week ending June 6, 2025.

CNN Fear and Greed Meter: The CNN Fear and Greed Index, a gauge of market sentiment, currently stands at 60 (Greed) as of June 13, 2025. This indicates a continued optimistic sentiment in the market, though slightly pulled back from the previous week.

  • Previous Close (June 12, 2025): 61 (Greed)

  • 1 Week Ago (June 6, 2025): 63 (Greed)

  • 1 Month Ago (approx. May 13, 2025): 69 (Greed)

  • 1 Year Ago (approx. June 13, 2024): 44 (Fear)

Key Economic Events

The upcoming week is packed with significant economic data releases that could influence market direction. The highlight will undoubtedly be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and forward guidance.

  • Monday, June 16, 2025:

    • G7 Summit: Leaders from the Group of Seven nations will convene, likely discussing global economic stability, trade policies, and geopolitical issues. Outcomes from this summit could impact investor sentiment, particularly regarding international cooperation and trade relations.

    • China Industrial Production & Retail Sales (02:00 AM ET): These key indicators provide a snapshot of China's economic health. Stronger-than-expected figures could signal a rebound in the world's second-largest economy, potentially boosting global growth prospects and commodity demand. Conversely, weaker data could reignite concerns about a slowdown.

    • US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 PM ET): This regional manufacturing survey offers an early look at the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A positive reading indicates expansion, while a negative one suggests contraction, influencing expectations for broader industrial activity.

  • Tuesday, June 17, 2025:

    • Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision (03:00 AM ET - exact time can vary): The Bank of Japan's decision is crucial for global monetary policy. While a rate hike is generally not expected, any shifts in their forward guidance or bond-buying program could have significant implications for the JPY and global bond markets.

    • US Retail Sales (12:30 PM ET): This report is a critical measure of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the U.S. economy. A strong reading suggests robust demand and economic momentum, potentially leading to hawkish Fed expectations, while a weak report could signal a slowdown.

    • US Industrial Production (01:15 PM ET): This data measures output in the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors. It provides insight into the health of the industrial sector and overall economic growth.

  • Wednesday, June 18, 2025:

    • UK Inflation Rate YoY (06:00 AM ET): This inflation data from the UK is vital for the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions. A higher-than-expected inflation rate could pressure the BoE to maintain a hawkish stance or even consider further tightening, impacting the GBP.

    • US FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Economic Projections & Press Conference (06:00 PM ET): This is the marquee event of the week. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the focus will be on the updated "dot plot" (individual Fed members' interest rate forecasts) and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. Any hints about the timing or pace of future rate cuts, or the Fed's stance on inflation and economic growth, will heavily influence equity, bond, and currency markets.

  • Thursday, June 19, 2025:

    • Australia Employment Change (01:30 AM ET): A key labor market indicator for Australia. Strong employment growth could boost the Australian dollar and reinforce expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy path.

    • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (11:00 AM ET): Following the UK inflation data, the Bank of England's decision will be closely watched. Given recent inflation figures and the overall economic landscape, the market will assess the BoE's commitment to its current policy stance and any signals about future rate adjustments.

  • Friday, June 20, 2025:

    • Germany PPI YoY (06:00 AM ET): Producer Price Index data for Germany, indicating inflationary pressures at the wholesale level. This can be a leading indicator for consumer inflation in the Eurozone.

    • UK Retail Sales MoM (06:00 AM ET): This monthly data reflects consumer spending in the UK. A strong rebound could signal resilience in the UK economy, while a decline might exacerbate recessionary concerns.

Corporate Earnings to Watch

The earnings calendar for the upcoming week features reports from several notable companies. These reports will provide valuable insights into sector-specific performance and broader economic trends.

  • Monday, June 16:

    • Lennar (LEN) - PM: As a major homebuilder, Lennar's earnings will offer insights into the health of the housing market, construction trends, and consumer confidence in real estate, especially given the current interest rate environment.

  • Tuesday, June 17:

    • Jabil Circuit (JBL) - AM: A manufacturing services company, Jabil's results can reflect trends in various industries, including electronics, healthcare, and automotive, providing a pulse on global supply chains and demand.

    • La-Z-Boy (LZB) - PM: This furniture manufacturer's earnings will indicate consumer discretionary spending patterns and the broader retail landscape for home goods.

  • Wednesday, June 18:

    • Korn Ferry (KFY) - AM: As a global organizational consulting firm, Korn Ferry's earnings can serve as a bellwether for corporate hiring, talent management, and overall business investment.

  • Thursday, June 19:

    • Carnival (CCL) - AM/PM: As a leading cruise operator, Carnival's report will shed light on the travel and leisure sector's recovery, consumer travel demand, and the impact of fuel costs and geopolitical tensions on the industry.

  • Friday, June 20:

    • Kroger (KR) - AM: As a major grocery retailer, Kroger's earnings offer insights into consumer spending on essentials, inflationary pressures on food prices, and the competitive landscape in the grocery sector.

    • Darden Restaurants (DRI) - AM: The parent company of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, Darden's results will reflect trends in casual dining, consumer discretionary spending on dining out, and labor cost pressures.

    • CarMax (KMX) - AM: As a used car retailer, CarMax's earnings will provide clues about consumer demand for vehicles, used car pricing trends, and the impact of interest rates on auto financing.

Chart of the Week:

Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical developments continue to be a significant wild card for global markets.

  • G7 Summit (Monday, June 16, 2025): As mentioned in the economic calendar, the G7 Summit is a key scheduled event. Discussions among the leaders of major industrialized nations often touch upon global economic stability, trade, climate change, and international security. Any coordinated policy announcements or shifts in diplomatic stances on contentious issues (e.g., trade disputes, support for Ukraine, Middle East stability) could trigger market reactions.

  • Ongoing Israel-Iran Tensions: The recent escalation of conflict, with Israel's "preemptive strike" on Iran's nuclear and military facilities and Iran's vow of retaliation, has already caused significant market ripples. While not a scheduled event for the upcoming week, the ongoing nature of this conflict means that any further developments, statements from involved parties, or actual retaliatory actions could lead to sudden shifts in oil prices, gold (as a safe haven), and broader equity market sentiment. Investors will remain highly sensitive to news from the region, making it a primary focus for risk assessment. The potential for disruption to oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, remains a significant concern, although OPEC+ spare capacity could theoretically offset some supply drops in the short term.

  • US-China Trade Dynamics: While no specific scheduled events for trade talks are highlighted for next week, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and trade relations with China continues to be a backdrop for market sentiment. The recent federal court ruling allowing the administration to enforce global tariffs and President Trump's warnings of reciprocal tariffs suggest that trade-related headlines could re-emerge as market drivers at any time.

Levels We Are Watching

S&P 500 Index (SPX)

  • Bull/Bear Line: 5975.75

  • Upper Target: 6082.75

  • Lower Target: 5869.00

Nasdaq-100 (NDX)

  • Bull/Bear Line: 21675.25

  • Upper Target: 22152.50

  • Lower Target: 21198.00

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

  • Bull/Bear Line: 42613.30

  • Upper Target: 43304.40

  • Lower Target: 41922.30

Crude Oil (USO)

  • Bull/Bear Line: 63.24

  • Upper Target: 65.70

  • Lower Target: 60.77

GLD

  • Bull/Bear Line: 306.57

  • Upper Target: 312.48

  • Lower Target: 300.66

Yield Curves

US Treasury Yield Curve (as of June 13, 2025): The U.S. Treasury yield curve shows a mixed picture. While shorter-term yields (1-month to 3-year) remain elevated, leading to some inversion at the very front end, longer-term yields have recently declined (e.g., 10-year yields down ~9 basis points last week). The 10-Year to 2-Year spread is positive at ~31.32 bps, suggesting some normalization after previous inversions, but the complex dynamics across the curve reflect ongoing uncertainty about inflation, economic growth, and the future path of monetary policy. The strong reception to recent long-term Treasury auctions indicates demand for duration despite current yield levels.

Global Interest Rate Outlook and Implications: The overarching theme for central banks globally, especially heading into next week, is a "wait-and-see" approach amidst various headwinds:

  • Federal Reserve (FOMC Meeting: June 17-18): The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. The key focus will be on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot," which will reveal individual policymakers' views on the future path of interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in more rate cuts in 2025 (around 50 bps) than the Fed's likely projection (perhaps just one 25 bps cut). This divergence could lead to volatility, especially if Chair Powell's press conference maintains a cautious tone regarding inflation and the impact of tariffs on the economy.

  • Bank of Japan (BoJ Meeting: June 17): The BoJ is anticipated to keep its policy unchanged, holding the interest rate at 0.5%. While the BoJ has begun to normalize policy, the ongoing global uncertainties and domestic economic conditions suggest a cautious stance. Any unexpected dovish or hawkish shifts could significantly impact the Yen and global liquidity.

  • Bank of England (BoE Meeting: June 19): Following the release of UK inflation data, the BoE is also expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4.25%. Despite persistent inflation concerns (CPI around 3.4%) and signs that tax increases and tariffs are weighing on growth, the MPC is likely to reiterate its "gradual and careful" approach to any future rate reductions.

  • Broader Implications: The collective stance of central banks indicates a period of cautious assessment. Persistent inflationary pressures, coupled with geopolitical risks (e.g., Israel-Iran conflict driving oil prices) and trade uncertainties, make central bankers hesitant to commit to aggressive easing cycles. This "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, even if rates are not actively rising, implies continued pressure on borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could temper economic growth and corporate earnings in the coming quarters. The market will be looking for any signs of a synchronized global shift in monetary policy, but for now, individual country-specific factors and global risks remain dominant.

Conclusion:

The week ahead promises to be dynamic, dominated by key economic data, a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Market breadth has shown underlying expansion, suggesting some resilience, but momentum indicators warrant caution. The Fed's updated projections will be critical in shaping interest rate expectations, likely maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach that may differ from market pricing for aggressive cuts. Corporate earnings will offer granular insights into sector health, while the G7 Summit and developments in the Middle East will heavily influence risk sentiment and commodity markets.

Stay alert, stay nimble.