Week 29: Fed's Rate-Hike Announcement on Tap

Hello members! We hope your weekend is going well. We’re looking to help get your game-planning on track by taking a few minutes to look at the week ahead.

That’s a quick glance at the econ reports, earnings schedule and the weekly charts in an effort to “zoom out” and get a better idea of where things stands on the larger timeframes.

Quick Recap

The stock market ripped off a quick three-day rally to start last week. The S&P hit new 52-week highs on Wednesday, but spent Thursday and Friday under some pressure.

This year’s stars — the Nasdaq and S&P — took a backseat for this year’s duds, as the Dow and Russell raced higher. Luckily for premium members, we were watching for a quarter-up rotation in the Dow, which sparked a quick 660-point rally to the week’s high.

There wasn’t much in the way of economic reports last week, with retail sales being the big one. That figure came in light, which is not all that surprising I guess as the inflation figures were also light earlier this month. It seems spending is, finally, coming under a bit of pressure. Let’s just hope the Fed doesn’t overdo it.

• S&P 500 climbed 30.9 points or 0.69%

• Nasdaq index fell 80.90 points 0.57%

  • ARKK fell 0.64 or 1.32%

• Dow climbed 718 points or 2.08%

  • Now up 1500 points in two weeks

• Russell climbed 29.1 points or 1.5%

• 10-year yields (TNX) climbed 0.45%

• Dollar Index (DXY) climbed 1.13%

• Bond futures (/ZB) flat (down 0.05%)

• Bonds ETF (TLT) climbed 0.43%

The Week Ahead

Banks kicked off earnings on Friday, July 14 and more earnings rolled in last week. The reactions were…subpar.

Banks rebounded a bit last week, which was encouraging. But the reaction we saw from tech — particularly TSLA, NFLX and TSM — was a bit of a concern, given the Nasdaq YTD leadership.

Also some bearish reactions from Discover (DFS) and Amex (AXP) may have investors a bit suspect about the consumer (especially when paired with the retail sales whiff).

That said, this week’s earnings reaction will be much more telling. We have a fair mix of everything, from big tech (MSFT, GOOGL and META), to consumer brands, automakers and energy firms. We’ll also round out the credit card companies with Visa and Mastercard.

Additionally, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday. While that is well-known, Powell’s presser certainly moves markets.

Earnings

Economic Reports

The S&P 500

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