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I do not want to re-explain my bearish February call. I think there is a good possibility that we see some weakness.
I am not saying the ES is going to tank or crash.
What I am saying is, there could and should be some down days. The S&P is up in 13 of the last 14 weeks. Some pullbacks here should not be ruled out.
Further, I don’t think ES 5000 to 5020 won't be so easy. If the ES does rally above there, the higher it goes the greater the chance of pullbacks and selloffs.
That does not mean the ES can't run to a new high — it most certainly can! — but we are only 4 sessions into the month and I never said it would just unfold right this minute. I’ll put my key levels in the Lean.
I just want to post a note on seasonality, after I ran into a post by Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Below is an excerpt, while the full post is linked here:
Up January has much more outperformance versus when it’s down than any other month in the year on the following 11-months or 12-months return. Since 1938, when the S&P 500 was up in January the next 11-months average a gain of 11.6%. When January is down, the next 11-months average plummets to just 1.2%.