2026 November Mid-Term MESS On Tap

Straight up, politics and trading don’t mix, but the November 3 midterm elections are only 28 calendar days away, so at least in my book, I think it’s fair game. I want to remind everyone, I didn’t vote for Biden and I didn’t vote for Trump. In the end, this all comes down to one thing: who gains seats and who loses seats in the Senate and the House. The PitBull says it's going to be a wipeout. That is his prediction, and we will see how the votes come in.

With about a month to go, I would not assume either party has an easy road. For traders, the question is how the result changes expectations for policy and the economy.

What would it mean if Democrats take control of the House and Senate while Trump remains president? The first market reaction would most likely be more about gridlock, taxes, regulation, and fiscal policy than "Democrats = bearish." But the largest issue for the S&P may actually be rates, not politics. If a Democratic Congress is viewed as restraining large new deficit-financed programs, that could help bonds and become supportive for growth stocks and the Nasdaq.

For the ES, my read is: a Democratic sweep could cause an initial knee-jerk selloff, especially if it is unexpected, but I would not automatically treat it as a major bearish event. If the result produces Washington gridlock and pushes Treasury yields lower, the S&P could actually rally after the initial reaction.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

The Clash
(XLP)

XLP spent roughly seven months building a well-defined balance area between about 81 and 86, and last week's break below that range signaled an attempt by sellers to move price into a new, lower value area. Today's action, however, showed a lack of follow through as price rejected the lower levels and closed back near the bottom of the old range, suggesting the break may be a failed auction rather than the start of a new trend.

(KO)

KO has been rotating inside a well defined value area of roughly 86 to 89.50 since the late July earnings gap, and last week's push below that range found no follow through as sellers failed to attract new business at lower prices. Today's session showed a clear imbalance of demand, with buyers lifting price off the 85.60 area and returning it back inside the established value area. Like XLP, this action suggests the move below value was a failed auction, and acceptance back inside the range would point to a rotation toward the middle of the balance area.

(ADM)

ADM has been balancing between roughly 78.50 and 87 since mid July, and the lower edge of value has now rejected three separate probes in August, late August, and again last week. This latest test produced the most dramatic response yet, with a strong imbalance of demand carrying price from below 78.57 all the way back to the middle of the value area. The market is telling us that remaining inside established value is easier than exploring for new value, and until sellers can generate acceptance below the range, the path of least resistance is continued rotation within it.

About

With 35+ years of trading experience, Tom Incorvia brings a practical, real-world perspective to market analysis. Trained in Market Profile under Peter Steidlmayer, his approach centers on reading market structure through volume and price.

Download Tom’s Free Book : Reading the Auction

Globex: a dip before the buyers took over

The ES opened Sunday evening at 7781.50 and traded up to 7793.00 overnight, but the early lift did not hold. The session low, 7760.25, came in the 6:35–6:40 a.m. ET five-minute window. Buyers recovered enough ground to bring the final Globex bar back to 7778.50, just 1.25 points above Friday’s 7777.25 official settlement. The overnight session finished 3.00 points below its own open with volume of 237,605 contracts.

Cash trade: a strong advance, then a late shakeout

Monday’s cash session opened at 7778.50, dipped only to 7778.25, and built a substantial advance. The high, 7847.50, came in the 3:15–3:20 p.m. ET bar. The final stretch was less comfortable: the 3:45 bar closed at 7830.25, the 3:50 bar at 7824.50, and the 3:55 bar dipped to 7821.00 before recovering to 7831.25 at the cash-session finish. The separately measured 4:00 p.m. last-trade snapshot was 7829.00.

The Regular session gained 52.75 points from its open and 54.00 points against Friday’s settlement, with volume of 986,565 contracts. Cleanup ended at 7830.00. Monday’s official settlement was 7826.25, up 49.00 points, or 0.63%. Full-session volume totaled 1,273,298 contracts; official cleared volume was a separate 1,859,407 contracts, down from Friday’s 2,214,495.

The NQ reinforced the advance: official settlement rose 256.00 points, or 0.82%, to 31317.75, with a 31371.00 session high and a 31339.50 final price. Its official cleared volume was 581,527 contracts. In terms of the overall tone, buyers controlled most of the cash day and kept a solid gain despite the late pullback. Participation improved in advancing share volume, but fewer than half of NYSE advancing-and-declining issues rose. It was a firm day with a narrower foundation than the index gains alone suggested.

In the end, I think it’s fair to say no news is good news. The ES felt firm through the cash session, with buyers sustaining the advance despite narrower NYSE issue participation. ES five-minute volume fell from 1,762,002 contracts on Friday to 1,273,298 on Monday — 488,704 fewer contracts, or 27.74% lower. The rally had a clear bid, but it came on lighter volume.

Sellers Keep Control After a $5.3 Billion Peak

At 4:00 p.m. ET on Monday, the MIM All Markets snapshot showed a $3.1 billion net sell imbalance, with $0.3 billion to buy against $3.4 billion to sell. The displayed dollar lean was −91.4%, and the symbol lean was −75.5% across 638 names. Selling remained dominant into the final indication.

The first broad reading at 3:51 showed $3.6 billion net selling across 682 symbols, with 257 buys and 425 sells. Pressure eased to $3.1 billion at 3:53, then expanded to a $5.3 billion sell peak at 3:54. It backed off to $4.0 billion at 3:55 and $3.4 billion at 3:59 before the final $3.1 billion reading. The dollars improved from the peak, but never flipped to buying.

The separate 3:51 summary cards showed $0.9 billion net selling in NYSE and $4.3 billion in the S&P 500 universe. NASDAQ displayed $2.7 billion net selling alongside a PENDING badge. These overlapping market views should not be added together.

In the displayed individual tables, WBD led sells at $2.1 billion; NVDA and MSFT followed at $438.3 million and $399.8 million. TWLO led buys at $1.3 billion, followed by MU at $254.5 million. Communication Services showed $1.8 billion net selling, while Information Technology offset some pressure with $501.5 million net buying.

The flow was broadly defensive, with concentrated buyers offering resistance. For Tuesday, watch whether price holds up if another heavy sell indication appears; this dashboard alone does not establish the next session’s direction.

Market Summary

Four-market leans

Real-time imbalance chart

Market imbalance snapshots

Top Buy imbalances

Top Sell imbalances

Sector imbalances

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, October 6. All times Eastern.

• 8:15 a.m. — ADP NER Pulse weekly employment estimate. ADP release schedule.

• 8:30 a.m. — U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026. Census release schedule.

• 10:45 a.m. — Speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman. Federal Reserve calendar.

Earnings Calendar

Selected earnings for Tuesday, October 6.

• RPM International (RPM) — fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on October 6. Company announcement.

• Constellation Brands (STZ) — fiscal 2027 second-quarter results after the close. The earnings call is Wednesday, October 7, at 8:00 a.m. ET. Company announcement.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, October 5, 2026

Monday’s PTG session began as a Cycle Day 3 “wild card” after the overnight target areas had already traded. David corrected an earlier cycle label to CD3, then focused on following the developing advance rather than assuming the morning objectives would cap the day.

From morning targets to an afternoon extension

• David reported that the overnight 7795 and 7765 target areas had been fulfilled. After the cash open, he marked 7795 and then the 7805–7810 zone as achieved.

• The afternoon discussion centered on expected range: David described 7820 as the 75% range level and noted that its successful retest around 1:00 p.m. supported the next leg higher.

• He subsequently reported completion of the 7831 CD3 objective and the full range target at 7839.70. Those were room strategy objectives, rather than exchange settlement prices.

Managing the move and the late reversal

• David reported holding an A4 long runner from 7806.75 and later said that runner had trailed out. He also said the DLMB short ultimately played out.

• Member discussion emphasized staying aligned with the trend, managing uncertainty and reducing size when anxiety affected decisions.

• Late commentary described a reversal after the range objectives were fulfilled. The lesson was to distinguish a completed target from a reason to chase the next move.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, October 6, 2026

The DTG group’s early Tuesday preview is constructive but cautious: it is watching whether technology strength can sustain the advance while bonds and crude create competing pressures. The following outlook and chart levels summarize the DTG group’s October 6 room preview.

Macro Setup

• U.S. stocks enter Tuesday with a constructive tone after the Nasdaq pushed to new highs on Monday.

• Earnings optimism and lower oil prices helped offset rising Treasury yields.

• Overnight index futures moved higher, but yields remain near multi-decade highs and continue to pressure valuations.

• ES and YM remain especially sensitive to bond-market moves.

• Early flows suggest a cautiously risk-on tone into the U.S. session.

Oil and Geopolitics

• Crude is slightly higher as traders balance Gulf security concerns against strong Middle East exports.

• Regional exports are running above pre-war levels, helping offset some supply fears.

• Tanker-route instability and sporadic attacks continue to keep a geopolitical risk premium in crude.

• U.S. heating-cost inflation is also becoming a larger concern as winter approaches.

• OPEC+ holding output targets steady adds some stability, but crude remains an important swing factor for ES and RTY.

Dollar and Europe

• The euro is near a 17-month low amid political uncertainty and fiscal concerns across Europe.

• Rising French borrowing costs are adding to pressure on the currency.

• The U.S. dollar remains near recent highs as Treasury yields stay elevated and global risk aversion persists.

• Dollar strength continues to tighten financial conditions and weigh on multinational tech and industrial earnings.

• FX moves remain an important driver for NQ and ES.

Rates and Sector Rotation

• Higher rates continue to pressure consumer-discretionary and other rate-sensitive sectors.

• AI and megacap technology remain the strongest areas of the market.

• Historical seasonality provides a constructive counterweight, with midterm-election years historically followed by strong one-year equity returns.

• Seasonal tailwinds may help support sentiment into Q4 despite persistent macro headwinds.

AI and Corporate Catalysts

• AI remains the market’s strongest structural tailwind.

• Data-center operator DayOne reported surging revenue in its U.S. IPO filing, reinforcing strong infrastructure demand.

• Nvidia-backed Reflection AI introduced its first model, Beam, targeting competition with lower-cost Chinese open-weight models.

• TSMC reached a record high after Elon Musk confirmed Terafab manufacturing discussions.

• Boeing announced an approximately $14.7 billion undefinitized contract action for PAC-3 MSE seekers, adding an aerospace catalyst to the group’s watch list.

Today’s Market Focus

• The session blends AI-driven strength, elevated bond yields, mixed crude signals, euro weakness, and strong semiconductor and aerospace catalysts.

• Treasury yields and crude oil remain the most important cross-asset drivers.

• Middle East geopolitical headlines could quickly shift risk sentiment.

• Sector dispersion remains wide, with AI and megacap tech leading while consumer-discretionary and other rate-sensitive sectors lag.

• No whale bias is in place, as overnight large-trader volume was too light to be significant.

Economic Calendar

• 8:15 AM ET: ADP NER Pulse weekly employment estimate.

• 8:30 AM ET: Trade Balance.

• 10:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks.

Earnings

• Premarket: RPM International (RPM).

• After the close: Constellation Brands (STZ).

ES Volatility and Structure

• The five completed ES full-session high-low ranges through October 5 average 80.85 points. The DTG daily chart separately displays ATR (Smp, 5) at 72.55; the two measures use different definitions.

• ES continues to trade within its broader 7650–7850 range and tested the 7850 upper boundary on Monday.

• The short-term downtrend channel near 7811–7816 was probed and may now act as support on a pullback.

• The 7678–7683 trendline is the next notable support area below.

• The DTG daily chart places its 50-day moving average near 7751, below the displayed ES price — a bullish sign in the group’s outlook.

• The 50-day moving average remains potential loose support if the market pulls back.

Key ES Levels

• Potential support: 7811–7816 if the reclaimed channel holds, followed by 7678–7683, 7428–7433 and 7410–7415.

• Resistance: 7995–8000. A break below 7811–7816 followed by a failed reclaim would turn that channel back into resistance.

Risk Watch

• Iran, Ukraine, and Israel remain key geopolitical volatility risks.

• Fed commentary could shift rate expectations and bond yields.

• President Trump’s social-media posts remain a potential source of sudden headline-driven volatility.