Two-Way Trading Is On Tap

TSLA reports tonight

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Our View

I sold the open, got out too early but then went long the NQ. I had a good day and I started talking ES 5080 early in the day — the high ended up being 5076.25. 

That was the good part…the bad part was the late-day drop. 

With ~30% of the S&P reporting earnings this week the big question is, will stocks try to regain their footing after the Magnificent Seven stocks shed nearly a trillion dollars in market value since the Nasdaq 100 hit its peak? 

With things quieting down in the Middle East, the yield on the 10-year note edged higher to 4.622%, brent crude oil slipped 0.3% to $87 a barrel, Bitcoin climbed to $66,602 and gold futures slid 2.8% after reaching an all-time high on Friday. 

It was a good day for the S&P, but today's earnings are going to put that to a test. 

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade

This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.

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MiM and Daily Recap

ES Recap

The ES traded up to 5036.50 on Globex and opened Monday's regular session at 5030.25. After the open, the ES traded 5024.25, and then traded up to 5034.25 at 10:10, sold off down to 5019.25 at 9:45, rallied up to the old high at 5034.24 at 10:15, and then sold off down to 5006.00 at 11:30. From there, it made a series of dips and rips up to 5037.25 at 12:30, dipped down to 5024.75 and then made 4 new highs at 5037.75 at 1:15, 5044.00 at 1;15, 5053.25 at 1:30, and 5056.00 at 1:45.

The ES then rallied up to 5072.00 at 2:00, and then up to 5076.75 2:45. It was one buy program after another. After the high, the ES sold off down to 5054.75 at 3:15, traded up to a lower high at 5066.25 at 3:00, and then sold off down to 5043.25 at 3:45 and traded 5054 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.5 billion to sell and traded 5048.50 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded down to 5040.75 (5041 was the 50% retracement) and settled at 5049 on the 5:00 futures close, up 43.75 points or 0.87%, the NQ settled at 17,350, up 169.25 points or 0.99%.

In the end, we had a trade that worked unbelievably well on the trading floor and it was called Mutual Fund Monday. I noticed how when the ES closed firm on Friday the mutual funds would put the money to work that hit people's accounts on Thursday and Friday to work on Monday, the trade worked for several years until the algo's grabbed hold of it. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was one big short squeeze / upside-stop run. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was lower, 270k traded on Globex and 1.271 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.54 million contracts traded. 

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 72% Upside Volume 

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 67% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 74% Advance 

  • VIX: ~17

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Guest Post — Tradrr


Closing out the day for Tuesday will be the earnings for Tesla.

Having been considered one of the the major catalysts for the recent uptrend in tech places TSLA results at the forefront of many traders minds. The rumor touting that the Model 2s having been canceled could make for a surprise should anything be spoken contrary to that belief that could give TSLA a boost out of this recent slump dragging the market up with it.

Large chunk of March was spent in balance only recently broken down and out of starting within the 2nd week of April leaves behind a visually poor high above 5333's

and the prior months Point of Control.

The 3rd week of April confirms a Low volume area creates a double distribution profile gatekeeping ES from the broken balance and POC.

Starting the week off with some higher highs leaving a drastic and potentially weak taper at the lows of this profile puts some weight in balancing out this lower distribution to either gain ground to burst back through towards the higher balance or establish a lower balance pulling the POC in and creating grounds to trade further down.

Several tech earnings past TSLA to continue any spark for a clear direction with the likes of META, MSFT, GOOGL and INTC to name a few.

For more from Tradrr, please visit here.

Economic Calendar

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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