Two way street, look both ways before crossing.

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Our View

The OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) is slowly making its way to Trump’s desk. A large portion of domestic economic policy will finally be eliminated. The markets have already adjusted as if it is a done deal.

Tech and AI come out as big winners, and the green sector is the big loser.
Interest rates will remain a focus on the market as Trump nails down his whole market upheaval in international trade. The trader realignment is not only focused on the US; the entire world is using this time to negotiate with their trading partners. Markets need to have some better clarity on the outcome by this fall.

Until then, we will continue to move the market in fits and spurts.

Seasonally fourth of July week is bullish going into the holiday and bearish on the next week. We are sharing a study from our partners at Stock Traders Almanac:

StockTrader’s Almanac:

Trading the three days ahead of the July 4th Independence Day holiday has historically been stronger than the days after the holiday. Trading on the day before and after the holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and/or finish late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have recorded net losses on the day after.
This has become more pronounced in recent years and was the case again last year. However, over the past thirteen years since 2011, trading after Independence Day has softened notably. DJIA has declined ten times in 14 years on the day after. S&P 500 has slipped eight times. Average performance remains fractionally positive. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have more up days after the 4th, but R2K averages losses the two days after the 4th.