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Trust Your Gut, Not the TV
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If we have learned anything, it's that even under some of the worst economic conditions since the 2007 credit crisis, the ES and NQ can still go up. I think the talking heads help condition us to think the worst, and that is why I do not watch Bloomberg, Fox Business, or CNBC on my TV.
No matter if we are right or wrong, the guests on these financial channels are often asked for a directional view: “Where is the S&P going?” “What will the Fed do?” or “Is this the top?” The problem is that the underlying outcome is almost impossible to predict. Like I have always said, the markets can change in minutes because of positioning, flows, options hedging, macro data, geopolitics, or a single headline.
Another problem is the time frame. A strategist may be bullish for the next 12 months, but the person watching hears it as if he is bullish today or this week. Those are two completely different things, especially if you are trading futures.
Then you have the institutional bias, where a lot of these guests work for banks, asset managers, brokerage firms, and research shops. I am not saying they are lying, but everybody has a book, a business, or a reason for looking at the market a certain way. A long-only money manager is naturally going to talk about why stocks can go higher. A bond guy is going to focus on rates. When the market is getting smoked, they bring on the bears.
But the biggest problem is that nobody keeps score. A guest can make 10 calls, be wrong on 7 of them, and six months later come back on TV talking about the 3 calls he got right. Nobody puts up their trading card showing what they said, what the ES was trading at when they said it, what their target was, and when they said it was supposed to happen.
That is why I have always believed the market itself tells you more than the people talking about it. Price, volume, order flow, yields, positioning, support, and resistance do not have an opinion.
I think it's hard enough to navigate the ups and downs, especially when the ES and NQ are stuck in a trading range that goes on for weeks or months. Every time the market rallies, it looks like it's going to break out, and every time it sells off sharply, it looks like it's going to continue lower.
The PitBull told me again that none of his trading tools work anymore and that trading has become too hard. As I have told him for the last 10 to 15 years, it's all automated high-frequency and bot trading now, and it's never going back to what it used to be.
There is an old saying that the PitBull used to use: they take the money out at the end of the month/quarter, and they put the money back in at the beginning of the month.
After the ES made its high and a few higher lows showed up, I questioned whether there was going to be a walk-away. Later, I tried buying the ES when the NQ was going bid, but after the ES rallied and made a quick U-turn, I posted that I thought the MIM would be $2.5 billion to sell. Little did I know there would be another $10 billion to sell on top of my $2.5 billion estimate.
I really should have been more on the ball, especially when I said the 7775-to-7790 area should be good resistance, and the high was 7782.00.
As I have said many times, and long before the current Treasury crash, I voiced my concerns. The bonds (ZBZ26) sold off to 102.16, down 7 sessions in a row for a total loss of 4.27 points, or -4.51%, pushing the yield up to 5.60%, the highest level since 2002.
The ZNZ26, the 10-year note, made a low at 104.040. It has been down 6 of the last 7 sessions, with 1 unchanged session, for a total loss of 4.27 points, or -0.51%, with the yield finishing around 5.27%.
The 2-year note (ZTZ26) has been down 11 out of the last 17 sessions, with 11 down days, 3 up days of no greater than +0.06%, and 3 unchanged sessions. That adds up to a total loss of -0.87%, with the yield settling at 4.68%. And that's with at least one more rate hike this year, if not two.
That was not a good close for the ES. After the imbalance, the ES sold off all the way down to 7706 on the 4:00 cash close. Like always, I do not doubt the ES and NQ can bounce on Globex.
According to the STOCK TRADER’S ALMANAC — MONTH-END / MONTH-START: The last trading day of Q3 has historically been weak, with the S&P down 18 of the last 28, although it has been up 6 of the last 10. The first trading day of October is mixed, with the Dow down 11 of the last 21. Historically, however, the last trading day of the month plus the first four trading days of the new month have benefited from fresh institutional and retirement-plan cash flows.
The bigger seasonal tailwind comes from October itself: in midterm-election years, October has averaged roughly +3.0% for the S&P, +3.2% for the Dow and +3.2% for Nasdaq.
Our lean: I know that’s a lot to take in but when it comes to today, the last trading day of September, I think we will see more weakness but again that doesn't mean the ES and N go straight down, I expect pops and drops especially the bonds and notes are weak again.
The US/Iran talks are alive and more substantive than they were several days ago because proposals and counter proposals are actually moving back and forth. But they remain stalled on the terms and sequence of concessions. Reuters today still describes the peace talks as stalled, and oil rose partly because traders have not seen an agreement yet.
Bullish Scenario
The bulls need to defend 7715.50 settlement and, more importantly, regain acceptance above the 7730–7744 value zone. The first upside hurdle is the vPOC near 7730, followed by VWAP around 7731.25 and the tPOC near 7744. If ES can reclaim those levels and hold above them, it would signal that buyers are beginning to regain control of the auction.
Above 7744, the next major target is the VAH near 7758, followed by resistance clustered around 7763–7773. That area includes the first pivot resistance, standard-deviation resistance and short-term moving-average resistance, making it an important decision zone. A sustained move through 7773 would improve the structure considerably and open the door to 7782, then 7793–7802, with 7810–7823 representing the next major resistance band.
The strongest bullish signal would be acceptance back above value, rather than just a quick short-covering rally. If price can build volume above 7744–7758, hold VWAP on pullbacks and begin establishing higher lows, the profile would shift away from liquidation and toward repair. In that case, the market could begin targeting prior distribution zones and unfinished business higher up.
Bearish Scenario
The bears remain in control as long as ES stays below the 7730–7744 value area and fails to reclaim VWAP. The key line in the sand is 7715.50 settlement. A sustained break below settlement would keep pressure on the downside and put the 7705.50 session low back in play.
Below 7705.50, downside risk begins to accelerate. The next support comes in around 7697, followed by the 7686–7682 area. That zone contains pivot support, moving-average support and the first standard-deviation support level. If sellers push through that cluster, the next objectives become 7679, 7668, and then the heavier support band around 7658–7645.
The biggest risk for the bulls is continued rejection from the vPOC, tPOC and VAH. If rallies continue to fail beneath 7730, 7744 and 7758, it would confirm that the market is accepting lower prices rather than repairing the selloff. A break below 7705 with expanding volume could trigger another liquidation leg toward 7686, then 7668, with 7645–7610 becoming the broader downside target zone.
With bonds still under pressure and long-end yields elevated, ES remains vulnerable to another risk-off move if rates continue to climb. The bears maintain the structural advantage until ES can reclaim and hold above the main value area rather than simply bounce into resistance.
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The stock market was mixed during the last trading session of September following cooler-than-expected inflation data. Short-dated Treasury yields barely budged, while those on 30-year bonds remained at their highest levels since 2002.
In equities, software (IGV +1.2%) and the Mag7 (+0.4%) showed relative strength, while semiconductors (+0.2%) and the memory sector (-1.5%) showed relative weakness.
The SPX traded within a 93-bps intraday range and closed at 7,652 (-0.3%), sitting below our Risk Pivot of 7,690. The 55-bps drop in the final 30 minutes of the session was likely driven by end-of-quarter pension rebalancing. Meanwhile, the VIX rose slightly to close at 16.33, while the VVIX remained relatively flat, closing at 89.48.
The 16K lots of 0DTE put selling at 7,525 established a Positive Gamma zone around that strike. However, as noted in the AM Note, if the SPX were to truly break down, we are watching ~7,400 as a wash-out low based on current options positioning.
S&P 500 HIRO registered -$20bn in Delta on the day, marking the most negative Delta reading of the past year. We noticed a ~$3bn spread between 0DTE put buying (light blue line) and all-expiry put buying (dark blue line), pointing to longer-dated hedging demand.
However, on the S&P Equities HIRO and Nasdaq HIRO fronts, Delta remained relatively flat. Because downside hedging is concentrated strictly on the S&P 500 Index side, it is likely tied to end-of-quarter rebalancing flows rather than a fundamentally bearish view of the broader market.
SPX fixed-strike vols remained flat on the day, reflecting muted volatility expectations ahead. SPX ATM IVs for tomorrow and Friday sit at 13.5% and 14.7%, implying 84-bps and 92-bps intraday moves, respectively.
After the close, Micron (MU) reported better-than-expected quarterly results as the memory maker continues to benefit from soaring AI infrastructure demand. The stock traded flat and remains within its implied move at the time of writing. We will be watching the Key Gamma Strike and Key Delta Strike at 1,000 heading into tomorrow.
Finally, Nike (NKE) will report earnings tomorrow after the close, with an options-implied move of 7%. NKE is currently trading around $35, where traders are short 31K lots of puts. To the upside, traders are long 21K lots of 41.5-strike calls and 16K lots of 47.5-strike calls. Nike is currently trading at its lowest level in the past decade, down 45% YTD.
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The ES gave buyers a morning run, then handed it back into quarter-end. December futures opened Globex at 7739.00, slipped to 7719.50 around 7:20 a.m. ET, then reversed sharply. The 8:30 a.m. bar reached 7771.25 before the cash-session opening at 7751.75.
Buyers kept pressing after the bell. ES tagged its 7782.00 session high around 10:50 a.m., but the upside stalled. The afternoon turned into a grind lower, with selling accelerating during the final ten minutes of cash trade. ES finished the cash session at 7712.75, down 39 points from the cash opening and 69.25 points below the morning high.
The full-session low, 7705.50, came just after 4:00 p.m. A modest bounce left the final price at 7721.50 at 5:00 p.m. Official settlement was 7715.50, down 16.50 points, or 0.21%, from Tuesday’s 7732.00 settlement.
The morning strength failed to stick, and sellers controlled the finish. The full-session range stretched 76.50 points. Quarter-end finished with a small recovery off the low, but well below the day’s best levels.
In the end, it was all about the end-of-Q3 rebalancing and rotations and the $12 billion 3:50 sell imbalance. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was a gap up, small pullback, and go. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was the highest since the rollover at 1.9 million contracts traded, excluding spreads.
So far the drop in the treasury markets has not had a big effect on the indices but how long can that last?
MiM
MOC Recap: Heavy Sell Program Sweeps the Close
The September 30 MOC opened with an unusually aggressive sell program and stayed heavily offered into the bell.The opening imbalance hit $-11.9B, with just $985.4M to buy against $12.9B to sell. The symbol lean was -92.9% and the count lean was -72.7%, putting both well beyond the -66% threshold and signaling a broad wholesale sell program rather than normal rotational activity.
The pressure intensified into 15:55, when the total imbalance peaked at $-12.4B. From there, some of the selling was paired off, reducing the imbalance to $-9.2B at 15:56, $-7.2B at 15:58 and $-6.7B by 15:59. Despite that reduction, symbol leans remained near -90% throughout the sequence, showing that the underlying direction never really changed.
The selling was broad across exchanges. At 15:51, the NYSE showed $-5.7B with an -89.5% dollar lean, while the S&P 500 was $-11.4B at -93.2%. Nasdaq was even more one-sided at $-6.2B and -96.8%, with 80% of its symbols for sale.
Technology took the biggest hit. Information Technology showed $-4.6B with a -97.0% dollar lean and -80.2% symbol lean. Financials were $-1.5B, Health Care $-1.3B, Communication Services $-1.1B, and Industrials $-1.1B. Consumer Discretionary also saw $891.2M for sale.
Interestingly, the largest individual paired flows were concentrated in major names, including MSFT at $1.1B, AAPL $796.8M, NVDA $499.2M, META $488.3M, and JPM $328.3M. The takeaway was clear: this was not sector rotation. The extreme dollar and symbol leans showed institutions broadly using the quarter-end close to sell equities, with technology bearing the largest load.
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, September 30, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 23 / 301
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 91 / 368
NYSE TRIN: 0.67
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.58
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, September 25, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 70 / 575
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 323 / 769
NYSE TRIN: 0.59
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.56
Today’s Economic Calendar
Today’s earnings watch
Issuer | Verified timing · EDT | Source |
|---|---|---|
Accenture (ACN) | 8:00 a.m. call; exact release time not established | |
McCormick & Company (MKC) | 8:00 a.m. call; exact release time not established | |
NIKE (NKE) | Approximately 4:15 p.m. results; 5:00 p.m. call |
PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Wednesday was an active but uneven session, with the quarter-end backdrop creating difficult trading rhythms. The room had several positive individual trades and useful market-structure discussions, while David emphasized how end-of-quarter rebalancing made it harder to string together consistent winning sequences.
Overnight setup and key levels
David identified the session as Cycle Day 3, with the primary objective of trading above the 7726 Cycle Day 1 low.
The Line in the Sand was 7745.
Initial upside targets were 7755 to 7775.
The 7755 upside target was fulfilled overnight.
Downside targets were 7735 to 7715.
By approximately 7:25 AM, both 7735 and 7725 had been reached, with price approaching 7715.
Following the PCE report, the 7765 upside target was also fulfilled.
Economic data reaction
The reported year-over-year PCE Price Index came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast and prior reading cited in the room.
The market reacted quickly to the release.
David noted that the 7765 upside objective was fulfilled on the PCE move.
The reaction reinforced the importance of having predefined targets before major economic releases.
Early session trading
The opening portion of the regular session was relatively inactive.
John B noted that he was positive because he had followed his plan, despite limited activity.
That was an important theme for the session: profitability did not require constant participation.
The room also discussed chart structure, including a possible bull flag and interpretation of large block trades.
Market structure and order flow discussion
David confirmed that a block represented a single trade of 400 contracts in the context being discussed.
The room spent time discussing what large block trades might indicate about buyer and seller behavior.
Members considered whether sellers participating in large blocks could simply be taking profits rather than necessarily expressing a bearish directional view.
Savann asked about identifying buyer or seller absorption at specific levels.
This discussion highlighted the value of using order flow and market structure as context rather than treating a single large transaction as a standalone signal.
Quarter-end conditions
David later explained that quarter-end rebalancing rhythms were making it difficult to string together winning trade sequences.
This helped explain the irregular and less predictable price action.
The session became a good example of why traders should recognize when structural flows are dominating normal intraday rhythms.
Savann also noted that keeping NQ visible provided useful broader-market context.
Closing imbalance
Late in the session, David reported a $12 billion MOC sell imbalance.
He tied the large imbalance directly to end-of-quarter rebalancing.
The size of the imbalance helped explain the aggressive late-day selling pressure.
The close reinforced how quarter-end institutional flows can overwhelm normal technical behavior.
Trading lessons
Predefined levels proved valuable, with several overnight and post-data targets being fulfilled.
Following the trading plan remained more important than being highly active.
Positive individual trades showed that opportunities were available, but selectivity mattered.
Large block trades should be interpreted in context rather than assumed to be purely directional.
Cross-market context, including watching NQ, can help clarify ES price behavior.
Quarter-end rebalancing can distort normal intraday rhythms and reduce the reliability of otherwise familiar setups.
When the market makes it difficult to string together wins, reducing trade frequency and protecting capital can be more productive than forcing additional trades.
DTG Room Preview – For Thursday, October 1, 2026
Macro Setup
U.S. equities enter October on a defensive footing after the Dow and S&P 500 posted September losses amid a historic bond rout.
Treasuries logged their worst quarter since 1994, with yields still near multi-decade highs and financial conditions remaining tight.
Goldman Sachs now expects the next Fed rate hike in December, adding another layer of policy uncertainty.
Futures are mixed as traders brace for continued rate-driven volatility.
Treasury and Policy Risk
Smaller-than-expected Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt have raised questions about liquidity support and the government’s debt-management strategy.
With yields elevated, markets remain highly sensitive to any Treasury-related surprise.
Capitol Hill has shut down for midterms, while votes on data-center regulation and a lawmaker stock-trading ban both failed.
Political gridlock may reduce some near-term legislative catalysts, but fiscal uncertainty remains a factor for YM and RTY.
Oil and Geopolitics
Crude is moving higher as President Trump continues to reject easing Iran sanctions, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated.
Middle East oil exports reportedly rebounded in September as Saudi Arabia increased shipments.
Rising exports and geopolitical tension are pulling energy markets in opposing directions, keeping volatility high.
Crude remains an important macro swing factor because higher energy prices can reinforce inflation concerns and rate pressure.
Dollar and Gold
The U.S. dollar remains near a two-month high as higher oil prices and elevated yields reinforce hawkish Fed expectations.
Gold is near a seven-week low as real yields remain elevated.
Dollar strength continues to tighten financial conditions and pressure multinational earnings, particularly in technology and industrials.
Weak tourism activity is adding another drag to the broader services backdrop.
AI and Tech
Political support for slowing AI development on safety grounds is adding to regulatory scrutiny around the sector.
The FTC is examining whether leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, harmed consumers.
Google announced its Gemini 4 Argon model, intensifying competition among frontier-model developers.
Anthropic remains a major focus for investors, while its IPO prospectus also highlights significant dependence on large technology partners.
Micron beat Q4 expectations and issued a strong Q1 outlook, providing support for semiconductor sentiment.
Boeing gained after securing a $20 billion Navy fighter-jet contract, adding strength to the industrial sector.
Today’s Market Focus
The session combines bond-market stress, geopolitical energy risk, dollar strength, AI-regulation headlines, and selective earnings strength.
Treasury yields and crude oil remain the most important cross-asset drivers.
Traders are also watching for early signals from the U.S.–China summit.
Sector dispersion remains wide, with AI and megacap tech leading while rate-sensitive and consumer-facing sectors lag.
Whale bias is slightly bearish into the U.S. open on decent overnight large-trader volume.
Economic Calendar
8:30 AM ET: Weekly Unemployment Claims.
9:05 AM ET: Fed speakers Barkin, Collins, and Schmid.
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
1:30 PM ET: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks.
3:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Bowman speaks.
3:30 PM ET: Fed Governor Cook speaks.
Earnings
Premarket: Accenture (ACN).
Premarket: McCormick & Company (MKC).
ES Volatility and Structure
The ES 5-day average daily range eased to 71 points from Tuesday’s 72.75, though overall volatility remains elevated.
ES continues to trade inside the roughly 7650–7850 range that has contained price action for about five weeks.
The former short-term downtrend channel near 7816–7821 remains the primary resistance area above.
On the downside, bears have room toward the 7650–7655 trendline if support fails.
ES closed below its 50-day moving average near 7733.50 but rebounded overnight.
The 50-day moving average is still acting as loose support for now.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7816–7821, then 7980–7985.
Support: 7650–7655, 7465–7470, then 7410–7415.
Risk Watch
Iran and broader Middle East developments remain key geopolitical volatility risks.
Ukraine and Israel-related headlines also remain potential market catalysts.
Fed speakers could create rate-driven intraday swings.
President Trump’s social-media posts remain a potential source of sudden headline volatility.
