Trump Volatility, $80 Crude, and a $39 Trillion Debt Tab Nobody Wants to Talk About

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There are some things I have said that I probably can't remember, and there are some I have said over and over: as long as Trump is in office, it's going to be volatile, and that is what we have seen in his entire second term. One of the things about the bond decline is that it's not just the tech/AI liquidation, it's inflation, and guess what? Higher gas and diesel prices that jumped 11% after Russia said it was going to ban exports. Crude oil traded $80.00 for its biggest two-day gain since May, AND... the yield on the 10 Yr note jumped to its highest levels since May, rising 4 sessions in a row to 4.567%, the longest streak since 2024.

In yesterday's Fed minutes, the Federal Reserve officials highlighted rising inflation risks driven by the artificial intelligence boom. According to the latest FOMC minutes, central bankers are increasingly focused on how surging capital investment in AI infrastructure could put upward pressure on prices. I don't know enough about how this all works, but both the 3-year and 10-year Treasury note auctions drew solid, stable demand, with the 10-year reopening clearing cleanly at a high yield of 4.580% on a healthy 2.59 bid-to-cover ratio. And lastly, it's almost like the US debt isn't even being talked about as it hits a new high of $39.42 trillion.

At a massive $39.42 trillion in national debt, the U.S. government is now paying roughly $2.85 billion a day in net interest alone. To break down how fast this interest services the existing debt, it clocks out to approximately:

• Weekly: $20.00 billion

• Monthly: $86.65 billion

• Quarterly: $259.93 billion

• Yearly: $1.04 trillion

I have a saying I made up in the 2008 credit crisis: there is reason for concern, and I think that applies to today also.

SpotGamma: Founder's Note:

Futures are 15 bps higher. No major data is on tap for today.

Yesterday was another "buy the dip-day", as early equity market lows reverted back to opening highs.

This chart is making the rounds on X, likely via GS. It shows "record low put/call skew", and its very much related to the unusual vol dynamics we've discussed in recent days. "Level one" thinking is that traders are now gorging on call options, and selling puts. We think that was true... a month ago. We've shown several times how buyside traders are actually selling options in top stocks, which is providing dealers with positive gamma. Further, that positioning makes a lot of sense given the incredibly high call implied vols in those top single stocks into June.

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The ES had a 7554.75 to 7468.50 Globex trading range with 337k contracts traded and opened Wednesday's regular session at 7507.00, down 46 points, or -0.61%.

After the open, the ES sold off down to 7501.75, rallied 23.00 points up to 7524.75 at 9:45, sold off 54.75 points down to 7470.00 at 11:25, rallied, and then made a new low by 2 ticks at 7469.50 at 11:30. It rallied 18.00 points up to 7487.50 at 11:35, sold off down to a higher low at 7475.00 at 11:50, rallied 38.50 points up to 7513.50 at 12:30, sold off down to 7499.50 at 12:35, rallied 37.00 points up to 7536.50 at 1:30, sold off 22.00 points down to 7514.50 at 1:45, rallied 15.50 points up to 7530.00 at 2:00, and traded 7517.75 at 2:40.

The ES traded back up to 7532.50 at 3:05, traded back down to 7521.55 at 3:33 and then popped up to 7532.50 at 3:32 (it had been in this range since 12:45), sold off down to 7518.25 at 3:48, and traded 7522.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed small to buy. It rallied 14.25 points up to 7536.50 and traded 7526.75 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES traded 7529.50 and sold off down to 7508.00 after the US made new strikes on Iran and settled at 7515.50, down 35.75 points, or -0.47%. The NQ settled at 29,468.25, up 77 points, or +0.25%; the YM settled at 52,561, down 636 points, or -1.20%; and the RTY settled at 2963.90, down 34.90 points, or -1.16% on the day.

In the end, all I can say is oil, oil, oil. The CLQ26 made a low at 67.04 on 07/02/26, 4 sessions ago, traded up to 76.08 at yesterday's high. The ZBU26 September bond futures made a high at 114.22 on 06/30/26, closed down for the 6th in a row, and made its low at 110.27.

In terms of the ES and NQ's overall tone, they had a nice move down and a decent bounce. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was higher, with 337k ES traded on Globex and 1.09 million traded on the day session, for a total of 1.43 million contracts traded.

I am not going to do a big OP today. I think we all know where the weakness is coming from, and to tell the truth, I don't have much to say. One day they rotate into the ES, and the next day they walk away. Yesterday, they rotated out of the YM, and I bet they go the other way today. That's how the new world trading order works. Here today, gone tomorrow.

MiM

The MOC opened with a modest buy-side imbalance at 15:51, showing +$228M net to buy across all markets. That came from $3.916B to buy vs. $3.688B to sell, with 363 buy symbols and 325 sell symbols, giving the market a +51.5% dollar lean and +52.8% symbol lean. That was not a wholesale buy signal, but more of a rotational buy bias, with buyers slightly in control but not overwhelming the tape.

From there, the imbalance built aggressively. By 15:55, the total imbalance expanded to +$1.420B, the strongest reading of the sequence, with buy dollars rising to $4.331B against $2.911B to sell. The market then backed off, dropping to +$916M at 15:56, +$815M at 15:57, and +$222M at 15:58, before rebounding into the close. The final 16:00 print showed +$851M, with a stronger +73.9% dollar lean and +64.9% symbol lean, close to a more directional buy imbalance, though still just under the 66% wholesale symbol threshold.

Sector-wise, the buy side was broad. Energy had the strongest sector dollar lean at +79.5%, followed by Utilities +74.5%, Communication Services +74.4%, Consumer Discretionary +71.8%, and Health Care +69.7%. Those are notable because they were above the +66% threshold, indicating more aggressive institutional buy interest. On the sell side, Information Technology stood out with a heavy -$1.381B net sell imbalance and a -79.3% dollar lean, showing clear wholesale selling pressure. Basic Materials was also a full sell read at -100%, though only one symbol was represented.

At the symbol level, the largest sell imbalances were concentrated in semiconductors, led by NVDA, MU, AVGO, INTC, AMAT, MRVL, TXN, and ADI. The buy side was led by GOOGL, ABBV, AAPL, TSLA, JPM, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, and C. Overall, the MOC was a buy-biased close, but with a major rotation out of technology and semis into energy, health care, communication services, discretionary, and financials.

How to read the MiM

Today’s Links:

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, July 8, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 33% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 39% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 29% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 31 / 63
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 70 / 209
• NYSE TRIN: 0.84
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.65

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Thursday, July 2, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 338 / 144
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 712 / 357
• NYSE TRIN: 1.40
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.99

Today’s Economic Calendar

PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, July 8, 2026

The PTG room began the day with a clear cycle-based roadmap: price had already tested lower overnight into an important Cycle Day 3 violation area, where buyers stepped in aggressively. The main expectation was that the market had a strong chance to reclaim the Cycle Day 1 low, though the session required patience, risk control, and careful execution.

Overnight Setup

• Price pushed lower overnight into the 7474.75 Cycle Day 3 violation level.

• The decline also reached the Cycle Day 1 projected average decline zone of 7485–7467.

• Buyers responded aggressively in that zone, cleaning up sellers and reversing price back toward the 7510 area.

• David’s early expectation was that odds favored reclaiming the Cycle Day 1 low.

Early Session Bias

• Shortly after the open, David stated that the early lean favored long opportunities.

• The main upside objective was a move back toward the Cycle Day 1 low near 7538.25.

• The market was not immediately clean, and the morning developed into a choppy, two-sided trade environment.

Trade Management and Risk Lessons

• David gave an important risk reminder:

  “Stop Loss Orders = SMA — Save My Ass Orders.”

• The lesson was that even when the cycle bias is strong, traders still need to protect themselves.

• Stops are essential because the market can stay choppy or move against the expected thesis before eventually resolving.

• The room also discussed the importance of not mixing too many methods, such as ATR calculations and floor-trader pivots, without a clear framework.

Open Range and Tool Discussion

• Members asked questions about the PTG open-range tools and Sierra Chart setup.

• David confirmed that the open-range display is part of the PTG toolbox.

• For CL, David clarified that the OPR did not officially trigger because the ATA was not initiated before RTH.

• From a tracking perspective, the CL long would have triggered but then stopped out.

Midday Market Read

• By late morning, David noted that bears had ball control.

• The key area for bulls to reclaim was the 7505–7510 zone.

• The market remained difficult and choppy, with room members describing the action as stuck and later jokingly calling it a “steel cage death match.”

• Despite the chop, the broader cycle expectation remained focused on a potential reclaim of the Cycle Day 1 low.

Turning Point

• Around midday, David called out a successful retest of the low.

• He then stated that the run could begin toward reclaiming the Cycle Day 1 low.

• This became the key positive development of the day.

• The market began following the earlier roadmap more clearly after defending the lower area.

Target Fulfillment

• By midafternoon, David stated that the run to the Cycle Day 1 low had essentially been fulfilled.

• The key target area was 7538.25 plus or minus 5 points.

• This confirmed the main trade thesis from earlier in the day.

• The best opportunity was recognizing buyer defense near the lower projected decline zone and staying aligned with the reclaim objective.

Key Lessons

• Respect the cycle roadmap, but do not ignore risk.

• A valid trade thesis can still take time to develop.

• Choppy conditions require patience and disciplined execution.

• Stops are not optional; they are protection.

• The best trades often come from waiting for key levels to be tested and confirmed.

• Tool effectiveness depends on how well the trader applies them.

Overall Summary

• The day started with buyers defending an important lower cycle zone.

• David’s early expectation favored a reclaim of the Cycle Day 1 low.

• The session was choppy and required patience.

• Bears controlled part of the morning, but bulls needed to reclaim 7505–7510.

• A successful midday low retest helped set up the move higher.

• By midafternoon, the primary upside objective near 7538.25 was essentially fulfilled.

Overall, it was a constructive PTG session. The room identified the key levels early, managed through a difficult intraday environment, emphasized risk control, and ultimately saw the main cycle objective achieved.

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, July 9, 2026

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!