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Trump’s TACO Tape Is Wearing Thin — and the Street’s Starting to Smell the Pump. Watching ES 7650
Danny Riley
May 27, 2026
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Maybe I am wrong, but I think the public is tired of the Trump TACO. There have been way too many occasions where Trump has falsely said things that are part of his disinformation/BS policy.
The Pit Bull usually backs Trump, but he has not been saying that lately. In fact, he says he is “off his rocker,” and if he is saying that, what are the other big Trumpers saying?
His overall approval rating has slid into the 34% to 37% range. This is down from the roughly 47% approval he held at the start of his term in early 2025.
I think the main driver is two words: economic anxiety. Roughly 64% of voters express disapproval of his handling of the economy, driven heavily by ongoing frustrations over the cost of living, inflation, and a sharp spike in energy/gasoline prices.
The other factor is geopolitical friction, as public dissatisfaction has also grown regarding foreign policy, specifically his management of the escalating conflict and military actions involving Iran.
Our View
I think it is especially important to give a good, hard look at what I am going to say in today’s view. Maybe some do not know this, but when big IPOs hit, such as SpaceX, there is a tendency to pump up the markets in front of them, and then the markets dump.
Yesterday, Micron closed at 916.80, up 144.88 points, or 19.29%, and reached a $1 trillion market cap. It is now on pace to surpass Walmart as the 11th largest company in the U.S.
I am not going to take credit for this post from @0xbeehive, but as I said a few weeks ago, I clearly remember all the big IPOs that hit in 1999–2000 before the Nasdaq fell 78% and lost $5 trillion in market cap.
I know things are different now, but Pets.com, Webvan, and WorldCom went entirely bankrupt or saw their stock prices plunge by 95% or more. Amazon plummeted over 90% from its bubble peak of around $100 down to a low of just $7, while infrastructure stalwarts like Cisco dropped roughly 88% from their peak.
The illusion of a diversified market is fading. Right now, a staggering 35% of the entire S&P 500 rests entirely on the shoulders of just eight mega-cap giants:
Apple
Microsoft
Nvidia
Amazon
Meta
Alphabet
Tesla
Broadcom
The Cracks Are Showing
This extreme concentration means the index is highly vulnerable. We are already seeing the first signs of weakness—Meta alone recently wiped out 10% of its market cap. If this selling pressure spreads to the remaining seven giants, this transitions from a standard pullback into a major correction.
Technical Analysis Confirms the Risk
The charts paint a clear, bearish picture for the index:
Broadening Wedge: The price structure is fully formed and widening, signaling extreme instability.
Double Top Sealed: A clean rejection at 7542 has locked in a major bearish reversal pattern.
The Verdict: Phase 7 is officially in motion.
Downside Target: 6200
I’m not saying this is going to happen, but I am a firm believer that history repeats itself. Will it happen? I don’t know, but with the continued global liquidation in the U.S. Treasury markets and all the uncertainty, I don’t think the stock market can just keep going up unabated.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
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The ES traded in a Globex range of 7525.25 to 7565.75 with approximately 200k contracts traded. It opened the regular session at 9:30 a.m. at 7534.00, down 30.50 points.
After the open, the ES traded up to 7538.00 and sold off 13 points down to 7525.00 at 9:35 a.m. It then rallied 30.25 points up to 7555.25 at 10:38 a.m., sold off 38.25 points down to 7517.00 at 11:55 a.m., made a few higher lows, and rallied up to a 7534.00 double top at 12:35 p.m.
From there, it sold off 17 points down to 7517.00 at 1:30 p.m., slowly stutter-stepped back up to 7533.75 at 2:30 p.m., sold off 11.75 points down to 7522.00, and then rallied 19 points up to 7541.00 at 3:48 p.m. It traded 7539.25 as the 3:50 p.m. cash imbalance showed $2.8 billion to buy, traded up to 7542.50 at 3:55 p.m., and closed at 7539.25 on the 4:00 p.m. cash close.
After 4:00 p.m., the ES sold off down to 7534.25, flatlined, and settled at 7532.75, dn 28.25 points or -0.33%. The NQ settled at 30,073.50, up 514.75 points, or +1.74%. The YM settled at 50,547, down 115 points, or -0.23%, and the RTY settled at 20,925, up 52.90 points, or +1.84%, on the day.
In the end, the only thing I can say is that in a world of chaos, the trade was fairly orderly.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it had some dips and rips, but the main show was in the NQ. Regarding the ES’s overall volume, there was decent-sized Globex volume of 290k contracts, but day-session volume slacked off, with only about 1.05 million traded on the day session, for a total of 1.34 million contracts traded.
On Tap Today
There are no major economic reports, but there are three Fed speakers:
• 4:00 a.m. – Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech in Japan
• 3:55 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speech
• 8:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
Cycle Day 3 — “Anti-Gravity Markets” Continue as BTFD Crowd Pushes to Fresh All-Time Highs
Somewhere between institutional liquidity flows… and possible extraterrestrial assistance… the market appears to have completely suspended gravity.
Once again, the BTFD crowd showed up with laser precision — absorbing every shallow retracement and levitating the tape right back toward new all-time highs.
At this point, one has to wonder:
Is this still a traditional market structure…
or has UAP Trader officially joined the desk?
👽 The Tape Continues to Behave Like a Strong Market
Strong markets typically:
✅ Refuse weakness
✅ Punish hesitation
✅ Trap aggressive shorts
✅ Force late money to chase higher prices
And right now?
That script remains fully operational.
Every dip continues getting bought almost immediately — not emotionally, not dramatically… just persistent institutional accumulation with a hint of anti-gravity propulsion.
💰 The Dominant Script Remains: BTFD
The Buy-The-Dip crowd remains firmly in control.
Despite:
• volatility spikes
• geopolitical headline roulette
• stretched sentiment
• endless “this has to be the top” commentary
…the market continues rewarding trend alignment while punishing overthinking.
📊 Why Cycle Day 3 Still Matters
Historically, a Positive 3-Day Cycle carries a:
🚀 92.72% Performance Rate
And until proven otherwise:
Probabilities continue favoring higher prices over premature hero calls against momentum.
🛰️ PTG Tactical View
Current posture remains:
✅ Trend intact
✅ Momentum intact
✅ Dip-buying behavior intact
✅ Big Tech leadership intact
✅ Shorts remain vulnerable to further squeeze dynamics
Until the price says otherwise…
Respect the trend.
Respect momentum.
Respect the possibility that the aliens may, in fact, be running overnight inventory management.
The trend remains guilty until proven innocent.
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance above 7520 ±5
If buyers defend value north of this pivot, upside continuation remains viable.
🎯 Initial Upside Objectives
7535
7545
7555
Expectations:
Orderly trade
Controlled tempo
Clean inventory
Trend continuation
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance below 7520 ±5
Failure to hold the pivot opens the door for rotation and balance repair.
🎯 Initial Downside Objectives
7510
7500
7490
Expectations:
Increased two-sided trade
Inventory correction
Balance development
📊 Key Reference Levels
PVA High Edge: 7543
PVA Low Edge: 7525
Prior POC: 7536
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
The 3:50 p.m. MOC opened with a $2.824 billion net imbalance across 689 symbols. The opening lean was notable because the dollar side came in at +66.4%, right on the wholesale-buy threshold, while the symbol lean was +56.5%, showing broad participation but still somewhat rotational by count.
The buy pressure expanded into 3:54, when total imbalance peaked near $3.885 billion. Buy dollars reached $6.653 billion against $2.768 billion for sale, pushing the dollar lean to +70.6%. That was the strongest wholesale buy read of the session. After that, the auction began to fade. By 3:56, the net imbalance had dropped to $492 million, and by 3:59 the book flipped negative to -$714 million. The final 4:00 print settled at -$1.107 billion, with a -64.4% dollar lean and -57.1% symbol lean, just shy of the -66% wholesale sell threshold.
Sector action was split. Information Technology was the dominant buy sector, with $2.443 billion net to buy and an +89.6% dollar lean. Semiconductors were heavily represented, led by AVGO, NVDA, AMD, INTC, ADI, and QCOM. Consumer Discretionary also showed strong buy interest at +$594.68 million, helped by AMZN and TSLA. Industrials, Real Estate, Energy, and Materials were also positive, with Energy and Real Estate both showing notable buy-side leans above +66%.
The sell side was concentrated in Health Care, Communication Services, Utilities, and Financials. Health Care finished as the largest sector sale at -$481.49 million with a -74.8% dollar lean, led by MCK, UNH, JNJ, and TMO. Communication Services showed a -74.0% dollar lean, with META, GOOGL, and GOOG appearing among the larger sell imbalances. Financials were also weak, led by Visa. Overall, the MOC opened as a strong buy program, transitioned into late-day liquidation, and closed with a meaningful sell-side reversal.
Fair Values for May 27, 2026:
SP: 15.19
NQ: 70.48
Dow: 58.02
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Tuesday, May 26, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 164 / 29
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 559 / 95
• NYSE TRIN: 1.13
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.74
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the week ending Friday, May 22, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 216 / 206
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 555 / 536
• NYSE TRIN: 1.18
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.22
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, May 26, 2026
The day followed a clean Cycle Day 2 rhythm, with the market respecting the major reference levels laid out by PTGDavid. The best opportunities came from trading the planned levels, staying disciplined, and responding when price confirmed the expected rotations.
Pre-Market Targets Hit
ES downside target at 7525 was “nailed perfectly.”
NQ downside target at 26750 was also “nailed perfectly.”
This gave the room an early confirmation that the Daily Trade Strategy levels were highly relevant for the session.
Opening Lean and 7525 Retest
David’s opening lean was to sell/probe for a retest of the overnight low near 7525.
Price quickly tagged 7525, validating the opening expectation.
This level became a key reference for both downside pressure and later rotational behavior.
Positive Long Opportunity
After the 7525 back-test, price rallied and then pulled back about 75% toward A10.
That pullback created a clean long opportunity.
The trade pushed higher toward the upper value area, reinforcing David’s point: “When Opportunity Knocks, You MUST answer the door.”
7555 Line in the Sand
David identified 7555 as the day’s “line in the sand.”
Price produced a perfect rejection from that level.
David framed this as a Cycle Day 2 reversion trade, sending price back toward the opening range.
Key Intraday Battle Levels
Bulls needed to hold the opening range and later reclaim 7540.
Bears were working to force liquidation below 7525.
David noted 7517s as the next downside area on deck if sellers gained traction.
Afternoon Structure
By late day, David described the session as textbook Cycle Day 2 rhythms.
Back-tests of value-area edges produced the expected responses.
Price settling near the middle of the range was considered normal Cycle Day 2 behavior.
Closing Note
The session ended with a notable MOC buy imbalance of $2.8 billion.
Despite intraday pushes from both sides, the market largely stayed rotational and respectful of the key reference levels.
Main Lessons
Prepare key levels before the session and trust the process when price confirms them.
Cycle Day 2 often rewards reversion and rotational trades rather than chasing extremes.
The best trades came from patience, structure, and acting decisively when planned opportunity appeared.
The room also emphasized mindset: better thinking, research, and process are central to better trading.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Macro Focus
US equity futures are modestly higher, with major indexes up roughly 0.1%–0.3%.
The VIX is steady near 17, signaling no major pickup in hedging demand.
Overall tone remains cautiously constructive, though conviction is limited by macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
Geopolitical / Energy
Crude remains a key macro swing factor as traders monitor US–Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz headlines.
Brent’s pullback suggests some easing in near-term supply fears.
Unresolved geopolitical risk continues to keep energy markets and cross-asset correlations unstable.
Tech / AI Trade
AI-linked semiconductors remain a major focus.
Micron’s surge reinforces strength in the AI-memory trade, with SK Hynix also rallying sharply.
Nvidia remains one of the most active names and continues to act as a liquidity anchor for the broader tech complex.
Market Movers
Speculative flows remain active in small-cap and thematic names.
Strength is showing in space, energy-transition, and AI-adjacent stocks.
Top gainers included Braiin, T1 Energy, and Redwire, while weakness showed in Octave Intelligence and AutoZone.
Earnings
Premarket reports include DKS, BMO, BNS, DY, PDD, and TLK.
After the bell, traders will watch A, HPQ, MRVL, CRM, SNOW, and SNPS.
Thursday morning reports include BBY, BURL, DLTR, HRL, LI, CM, RY, TD, and XPEV.
Economic Calendar
ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8:15am ET.
Richmond Manufacturing Index at 10:00am ET.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 3:00pm ET.
ES Levels
Volatility remains elevated, with the ES 5-day average daily range near 81 points.
Whale bias is leaning bullish on light overnight large-trader volume.
ES continues to test the former short-term uptrend channel top at 7548/53, which remains the key pivot.
Holding above 7548/53 keeps the “blue sky” upside scenario in play.
Rejection at that area could open room toward 7470/75 support.
The 50-day MA remains above the 200-day MA, keeping the longer-term moving-average structure bullish.
Potential ES Resistance
7548/53
7855/60
Potential ES Support
7470/75
7405/10
7320/25
