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Treasuries Are Getting Smoked: Can Turnaround Tuesday Save the ES?
Danny Riley
July 14, 2026
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When It Rains, It Pours
I wrote all the right stuff about higher oil and bonds in yesterday's OP, but I stumbled when I said, “Buy the pullbacks.” Trump blockade headlines didn't help, and today's economic calendar may not help either, which includes the NFIB Optimism Index, CPI, and five Fed speakers.
Trump wants inflation down, but none of the above are helping his cause.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
HandelStats Levels:
OPEN
Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
Markets only do two things: they build value or they move in search of it. This daily chart of Caterpillar shows both phases cleanly. The two shaded regions are balance areas, where trade turned two sided, price rotated within a defined range, and the market reached a working agreement on fair value. Each time that agreement broke, price left the range, was accepted at higher levels, and migrated in search of new value before settling into the next balance. Balance, migration, new balance, migration again. That is the auction process in its purest form, and reading it correctly tells you the one thing that matters most: whether price is trading at fair value or moving away from it.
Fast forward several weeks and the same chart teaches the second lesson: old value never stops mattering. After migrating to new highs above 1080, Caterpillar found no acceptance up there. Sellers turned the auction back down, and price retreated until it reached a familiar destination, the upper edge of the prior balance area marked by the dotted lines. This is textbook auction behavior. When a directional move fails to build new value, the market returns to the last place buyers and sellers agreed on price. Previous value areas act as the market's memory, and the first question now is whether that old area of acceptance holds as support and produces new balance, or whether price re enters the range and puts the entire migration in question. Either answer will be visible in the profile before it is obvious on the tape.
The ES traded in a 7615.25 to 7566.50 Globex trading range and opened Monday's regular session at 7595.50, down 25.25 points or -0.33%.
After the open, the ES traded down to 7586.00 at 9:30. It rallied 24.50 points up to 7610.50 at 10:00, then sold off 37.00 points down to 7573.50 at 10:15. The ES rallied 30.25 points up to 7603.75 at 10:30, then sold off 43.75 points down to 7560.00 at 12:30. It rallied 18.00 points up to 7578.00 at 1:00, then sold off 27.00 points down to a new low at 7551.00 at 3:38. The ES rallied 11.25 points up to 7562.25 at 3:49 and traded 7560.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $4.5 billion to buy. It then traded up to 7568.25 and traded 7563.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES sold off 16.00 points down to a new low at 7547.25 at 4:15 and settled at 7554.25, down 66 points or -0.87%. The NQ settled at 29,428.75, down 603.50 points or -2.10%; the YM settled at 52,720, down 186 points or -0.53%; and the RTY settled at 2,965.30, down 28.70 points or -0.96%.
Gold $GC closed down 105 or -2.55%. The dollar index made new highs and settled at 101.28, up 0.33%. Bitcoin settled at 62,070.00, down 2.82%. The 10-yr note (ZNU26) closed down 0' 115 points or -0.33%, down 7, up 2, and 1 unchanged over the last 10 sessions. The bond futures (ZBU26) 16 points or -0.45%, down 8 of the last 9 sessions.
In the end, the bonds and notes were down again, and crude oil was up almost 9% as Trump said he is reinstating the blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
In terms of the ES and NQ's overall tone, every rally was sold. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was steady but not large at 1.198 million contracts traded.
Market-on-Close Recap
The MOC opened a sizable $3.7B buy imbalance, built from $6.5B of buy orders against $2.8B of sell orders. The dollar lean was +70.1%, a notably strong buy signal suggesting broad institutional demand by value. However, the symbol lean was -50.2%, with 343 stocks showing buy imbalances and 346 showing sells. That divergence indicated the opening flow was concentrated in larger names rather than a wholesale market-wide purchase.
The imbalance weakened steadily after the opening print. It declined to $3.0B at 15:52, $2.6B at 15:53, and $1.5B at 15:54. At 15:55, the MOC flipped to a $378.0M sell imbalance and remained mostly negative through the close. After briefly returning to a $48.0M buy at 15:58, it finished at 16:00 with a $417.0M sell imbalance. The final dollar lean was -63.9%, approaching a more decisive sell reading, while the symbol lean ended at -59.8%.
Technology led the buying. SNDK showed a $475.6M buy, followed by NVDA at $430.6M, AVGO at $286.5M, INTC at $206.3M, MRVL at $181.7M, KLAC at $153.8M, and AMD at $143.2M. TSLA, Visa, and XOM also attracted substantial demand.
Selling was concentrated in AAPL at $157.4M, BKNG at $128.4M, AMZN at $101.4M, MELI at $90.9M, MS at $78.5M, and MSFT at $72.1M.
Sector flow was heavily buy-weighted in Information Technology at +87.2%, Financials at +72.2%, and Consumer Staples at +69.4%. Real Estate posted a wholesale-style -73.4% sell lean, while Utilities were the weakest group at -82.6% by dollars and -66.7% by symbols. Communication Services showed a sharp internal split, with a +63.3% dollar lean but a -76.2% symbol lean.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, July 13, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 38% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 78 / 57
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 94 / 222
NYSE TRIN: 1.00
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.85
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, July 10, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 254 / 114
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 477 / 390
NYSE TRIN: 0.86
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.79
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, July 13, 2026
Monday developed as a slow, rotational Cycle Day 3 session. With the projected downside objectives already completed overnight, David classified the day as a “wild-card” and encouraged the room to respect mid-summer trading rhythms, remain patient, and avoid forcing trades.
Morning Outlook
Overnight downside objectives from the Daily Trade Strategy had already been fulfilled.
The market was expected to begin with a “back-and-fill” rhythm.
David classified the session as a Cycle Day 3 “wild-card.”
Positive three-day cycle performance stood at 93.09%.
The room was reminded to proceed carefully because of slower mid-summer conditions.
Early Market Structure
David established an early ES sandbox between 7590 and 7610.
NQ showed relative weakness shortly after the open.
ES appeared slow and rotational, with limited early momentum.
The market remained contained within the outlined sandbox during the opening phase.
Positive Trades and Market Reads
The NQ Open Range Short reached TP1.
ES produced a strong buying response from the 7590 lower sandbox edge.
David began scaling into an A10 long structure after the 7590 response.
The 7590–7610 sandbox accurately defined the early trading range.
The 7610 upper edge was correctly identified as the key resistance pivot.
The room recognized that the market was ranging rather than trending cleanly.
Trades That Required Adjustment
The crude oil open-range trade was stopped early.
The ES long bias did not receive sustained follow-through above 7610.
Buyers later failed to hold the important 7565 level.
Once bullish support weakened, the market began a slow drift lower.
News-Driven Disruption
Headlines concerning Iran and the Strait of Hormuz interrupted the developing market rhythm.
The sudden news reduced the quality of several potential setups.
The market became more difficult and less technically orderly after the announcement.
The room was reminded that unexpected headlines can quickly invalidate otherwise sound trade structures.
Afternoon Price Action
After lunch, 7565 became the critical test of bullish resolve.
Buyers were unable to hold that level and produce a reversal.
ES then moved toward Friday’s 7552.75 low.
David noted that the morning 7610 sandbox edge had remained the key resistance pivot.
The session ultimately became a slow, persistent drift lower.
Trading Lessons
Follow the day’s classification and trade the conditions presented.
Do not expect clean continuation after cycle objectives have already been fulfilled.
Use sandbox edges as decision points rather than assuming a breakout.
Take available profits quickly during slow, rotational sessions.
Accept small losses when an open-range setup fails.
Use CCI as the triggering event and the stackers as supporting confluence.
Monitor the relationship between A4 and A10 for directional alignment.
Avoid staring at charts until subjective patterns replace objective structure.
Adjust quickly when unexpected news changes the market’s rhythm.
Continue following the plan rather than reacting emotionally to every movement.
End-of-Day Takeaway
The positive three-day cycle was completed.
Historical positive cycle performance remained at 93.09%.
Monday’s rotational weakness was consistent with its “wild-card” classification.
Tuesday begins a new Cycle Day 1.
The primary focus will be identifying a tradeable and secure cycle low.
David closed the session with “Turn Around Tuesday” on deck.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Geopolitical and Energy Risk
Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are pressuring global markets.
Crude oil has climbed to a one-month high on fears of supply disruption.
Higher energy costs are lifting inflation expectations ahead of CPI.
Energy and defense names may outperform, while technology and consumer-sensitive sectors remain vulnerable.
Semiconductor Weakness
Asian semiconductor stocks sold off sharply overnight.
Nvidia reportedly reduced its Asia buyer list amid tighter U.S. export restrictions.
Traders will be watching NVDA and the broader SOX group for confirmation of further AI-related weakness.
Continued pressure in technology could encourage rotation into energy, value and defensive sectors.
Today’s Key Catalysts
8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Weekly Employment Change
8:30 a.m. ET: CPI
10:00 a.m. ET: Fed Chair Warsh testimony
Additional Fed speakers include Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman.
Earnings
Premarket reports include JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.
Other companies reporting include Ericsson and Fastenal.
Wednesday morning earnings include ASML, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson and Progressive.
ES Technical Levels
ES remains inside a short-term rising channel.
Resistance: 7660–7665
Support: 7515–7520
50-day moving average: 7513.75
A break above resistance would bring the all-time high and the 7700 area into focus.
Additional trendline levels:
Resistance: 8100–8105
Support: 7180–7185
Volatility and Positioning
Volatility remains moderately elevated.
The five-day ES average daily range eased to 78.75 points.
Geopolitical headlines and political commentary remain key intraday catalysts.
Overnight large-trader activity was too light to establish a directional bias.
