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Thin Volume, Two-Way Trade, and No Clear Sailing for the ES
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I think the bottom line on all this is that everything is thrashing, it’s the middle of July, volume has dried up, and the geopolitics and the ongoing selling in semiconductors remain front and center.
Yes, the bonds and notes rallied slightly, and crude was higher. It’s hard to gauge what’s going to happen next. Late in the day, Trump started talking about increasing the strikes on Iran and mentioned putting troops on the islands around Iran. Currently, there are no active negotiations taking place.
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Dan @ GTC Traders
GTC Traders Portfolio Performance and New Premium Feature
I thought this week, we could talk a little bit about the performance of GTC Traders portfolio. Share a few highlights now that we are more than halfway through the year.
And as the title of this article suggests, we are also sharing a new feature we will have for premium members of GTC Traders.
First, let’s review the portfolio a bit.
GTC Traders Sample Portfolio
Before we get too much into the specifics it’s important for new and aspiring traders to know there is something we refer to in the industry as a ‘return profile’. In other words, what is the ‘personality’ and characteristics of the returns of a particular portfolio.
You can have ‘linear’ return profiles. And ‘absolute’ return profiles.
In an ‘absolute’ return profile, the manager seeks to simply "win the game" with the highest nominal numbers humanly possible. They aren't trying to manage a smooth ride or shelter investors from volatility; they are chasing raw, unadulterated performance. The goal is to print massive absolute gains by taking aggressive, high-conviction swings. Volatility is just the price of admission for capturing the biggest numbers on the board.
The ‘Absolute’ Returns of Vanguard’s VIGRX Mutual Fund
For a ‘linear return profile’, the manager is attempting to achieve a remarkably high Sharpe ratio. Because suppressing volatility is the only mathematical way to achieve a Sharpe ratio of that caliber, the manager's primary focus is on smoothing out the ride. They are hunting for low-volatility, highly consistent gains to construct a return stream that climbs in a beautiful, predictable, straight line.
For the GTC Sample portfolio at the present time, we are aiming for a ‘linear’ return profile. But it needs to be stated and stressed that the mandate of the portfolio will not keep us permanently ‘stuck’ seeking the lower returns indicative of a ‘linear’ return profile. We have a heuristic that will cause us to ‘shift’ from linear, to absolute, and back to linear again depending on the market regime. A heuristic that has worked well for the last 120 years, so we are rather confident not only in our performance, but in our ability to produce performance wherein we aim for linear returns during markets in which we feel are in a bubble so as to protect the linearity of our returns against downside deviations, and absolute returns when markets are ripe with value.
As we have stated, since 2023, we are aiming for ‘linear’ returns. So how have we done? Let’s look at a few highlights. First, the total portfolio, with all programs running together …
Remember … that is the total portfolio, comprised of three different accounts (The Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core, the Long-Short Valuation Account, and the Short Term Trading Account). It is a multi-strat portfolio, presently seeking linear returns. And the above is about as linear as one could hope for. In a higher interest rate environment, we have an achieved a Sharpe of 1.08. But of real note is that the non-target return Sortino Ratio has hit 3.93. Anything above 2.0 to 3.0 is usually considered excellent and top tier performance.
When you start printing Sortino ratios that are above 3.0? These are typically achieved by elite institutions. Printing a Sortino ratio above 3.0 is considered so good, that it is either considered ‘Legendary’ … or it’s under suspicion. It’s so difficult to achieve that many begin to suspect the manager is doing nothing but selling OTM options, and the program is hiding a tremendous amount of gamma risk. And as premium members of GTC Traders will tell you? That is not the case here. Simply a blend of well thought out individual models, and programs.
We decided to have a linear return profile. And we simply returned, what we were aiming for. And beyond that, with world class performance.
We have our ‘beast’ of the Account of the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core. An account whose objective is not higher returns, but seems to be doing so anyway …
At the present time, despite not attempting to ‘beat’ the S&P 500 Index, we have returned 13.17% in 2026 … to the S&P 500’s 9.55% at the end of June. We have accomplished this with a maximum drawdown of 0.21 times the annualized return (anything under 2x is rare to see), a Sharpe of 0.94 and a Sortino Ratio of 6.96.
And this is in account, where we hold the assets for long, long periods of time. There is no ‘cheating’ with ‘coulda / shoulda / woulda’, as any premium member will tell you. A tiny $28,000.00 account that is liquid, and producing income that is twice the price of the Premium Service.
And our Long-Short Valuation Account? It doesn’t look like much to the untrained eye … but one phrase on the grid should jump out at anyone with experience …
s the title suggests … it has been ‘short-only’ since November of 2023. It will not always remain a ‘short-only’ account. In an environment like 2010, this account model was buying every undervalued stock it could seek to find. But since November of 2023, this account has been short-only.
In a raging, raging bull market.
We’re not aware of any short-only fund … doing this well. But if you are aware of any … please … let us know. We would honestly and legitimately enjoy reviewing it. Most short-only accounts purposefully ‘bleed and hemorrhage’ money intentionally to work as a non-correlative ‘buffer’ to a larger parent account.
We have a larger parent account that is beating the S&P 500 index, and a short-only (for now) account that is providing positive returns.
GTC Traders Premium Member Feature
We’re pretty pleased with the performance thus far. And we were thinking. What about sharing some of our good performance with premium members of GTC Traders?
So … moving forward?
We’re introducing a performance-backed feature that aligns our business goals directly with our screen performance. We don't just want to excel at managing the portfolio; we want to deliver a standard of excellence as a company, too.
If the GTC Sample Portfolio experiences a down month in any particular calendar quarter? We may choose to refund premium members their service subscription for a single month. To keep things realistic and mathematically sustainable: if we hit a tough market regime and log two or three months of minor drawdowns in the exact same quarter, only a single month's subscription fee may be refunded. The philosophy here is simple. If we aren't delivering the steady, linear growth we target, we want to share that downside with you. We want to be a world-class firm, and that means standing behind our work.
Until next time, stay safe, and trade well ...
The ES traded in a 7592.50 to 7619.75 range on Globex with 155k ES traded and opened Wednesday's regular session at 7612.50, up 22.50 points, or +0.30%.
After the open, the ES traded 7611.75, rallied up to 7626.25, and sold off 25.00 points down to 7601.25 at 9:52. It rallied 24.75 points up to 7626.00 at 10:18, then sold off 35.00 points down to 7591.00 at 11:15. It then rallied up to 7608.50, sold off 36.75 points down to 7571.75 at 12:30, and rallied 48.00 points up to 7619.75 at 2:30. It sold off down to 7600.50 at 3:00, rallied up to 7612.75 at 3:44, and traded 7607.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $4.7 billion to buy. The ES rallied up to 7618.00 and traded 7617.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded 7619.75, pulled back a few points, and settled at 7616.00, up 24.75 points, or +0.33%. The NQ settled at 29,707.50, down 82.75 points, or -0.28%; the YM settled at 52,897, up 106 points, or +0.20%; and the RTY settled at 2,933.70, up 13.80 points, or +0.46% on the day.
In the end, when the ES and NQ rallied on Globex and gap up, the semiconductors are weak. The PHLX Semiconductor Index ($SOX) fell 3% in afternoon trading as $ASML gave up its early gains alongside declines in $MU, $MRVL, $INTC, and $AMD.
In terms of the ES's overall tone, it held together despite the tech/AI weakness. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was higher, but not by much, at 1.227 million contracts traded.
MiM
The MOC opened with a strong $4.6 billion buy imbalance, driven by $7.3 billion to buy against $2.7 billion to sell. The dollar lean was +73.3%, a notable wholesale buy signal. However, the symbol lean was -50.7%, with 340 stocks to buy and 350 to sell, showing that the buying was concentrated in a relatively small group of large-cap names rather than spread evenly across the market.
The imbalance steadily weakened after the opening print. It declined to $4.3 billion at 15:52, $3.5 billion at 15:53, and $3.2 billion at 15:54. Selling continued to offset the original demand, reducing the imbalance to $1.4 billion at 15:55 and just $190 million by 15:57. The MOC briefly flipped to a $154 million sell at 15:58 before rebounding to a $955 million buy at 15:59. By 16:00, only $82 million remained, indicating that most of the opening demand had paired off before the close.
Technology dominated the buying. Information Technology posted a $3.9 billion net buy with a +95.1% dollar lean and +68.8% symbol lean, both strong wholesale-buy readings. Communication Services added $351.7 million with a +83.9% dollar lean and +71.4% symbol lean. Consumer Discretionary gained $258.7 million, while Consumer Staples added $172.4 million.
The largest individual buys were NVDA at $878.2 million, MU at $545.6 million, AAPL at $330.6 million, MSFT at $310.5 million, SNDK at $293.4 million, and TSLA at $252.2 million. GOOG, AMD, AMZN, and MRVL also attracted substantial demand.
Selling was led by PH, KO, GOOGL, TJX, MA, GM, SCHW, TMO, HUM, OTIS, and ORCL. Real Estate showed a notable -73.1% symbol lean, while Energy reached -66.7%, signaling broad selling across those sectors. Overall, the MOC began as a concentrated institutional technology buy but transitioned into a largely paired and rotational close.
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, July 15, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 60% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 103 / 29
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 144 / 150
NYSE TRIN: 1.38
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.12
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, July 10, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 254 / 114
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 477 / 390
NYSE TRIN: 0.86
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.79
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
BTS are daily generated levels created using a combination of proprietary calculations and AI to define an upper range target and a lower range target, split by a bull/bear line. You receive daily charts along with clear descriptions of each level to help guide your trading.
Take a Free Premium Trial to see them in action.
Today’s Economic Calendar
PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Wednesday’s session developed as a typical Cycle Day 2 balancing session, with quiet summer conditions, two-sided price action, and several quality opportunities around clearly defined levels. The best results came from patience, level awareness, and disciplined trade management rather than chasing momentum.
Market Context
Overnight trading was very quiet, reinforcing the slower summer environment.
David identified 7590 as the key line in the sand.
The initial upside objective near 7615 ± 5 points had already been fulfilled.
The prior regular trading session was an inside day.
The market remained range-bound and continued to behave like a “trader’s market.”
Economic Data
June PPI came in weaker than expected:
Headline PPI: -0.3% month over month
Expected: 0.0%
Year-over-year PPI: 5.5%
Expected: 6.2%
The report briefly increased volatility but did not create a sustained directional breakout.
Indicator Discussion
David emphasized that the Cycle Trender is best used as a confirming signal.
The group clarified the relationship between indicators:
CCI identifies the event or setup.
Cycle Trender provides confluence.
Traders were encouraged to experiment with ATR and Trender filters rather than assuming one setting is always best for a specific cycle day.
Morning Trade Activity
Price action remained slow, choppy, and rotational.
Slatitude39 reported catching the D Level trade, using the prior high as a target.
Bruce identified an A10 short setup.
The room remained patient while the market continued to move back and forth inside the established range.
Best Afternoon Opportunity
During the lunch period, price declined into the previously identified 7570 ± 5-point target zone.
David later described this area as a strong long opportunity following a bullish shift.
The market then began a steady grind higher from the lower portion of the range.
Standout Trade
Bruce entered long at 7587.
He stayed with the trade through the afternoon advance.
Room members encouraged him to tighten his stop as price moved higher.
Bruce exited at 7614.
The trade captured approximately 27 points.
David and other members praised the trade for its patience and management.
Afternoon Structure
Bulls attempted to reclaim and convert the opening range.
Price moved from the lower portion of the Cycle Day 2 range back toward the upper range.
The market later rotated toward Mid-VWAP.
David noted that this range-to-range movement and return toward the midpoint was consistent with normal Cycle Day 2 balancing behavior.
Closing Conditions
Price remained trapped within the broader range.
David described the environment as a continued “trader’s market.”
Sustained breakouts remained difficult, but solid intraday swings were still available.
A $4.7 billion market-on-close buy imbalance was reported, largely concentrated in technology names.
David expected much of the imbalance to be paired off into the close.
Positive Takeaways
The room identified and respected several important price zones.
The 7570 target area provided the clearest long opportunity of the session.
Bruce’s long from 7587 to 7614 was the strongest reported trade.
Traders worked together by sharing targets, stop-management ideas, and market observations.
The market rewarded disciplined execution rather than aggressive prediction.
Lessons Learned
Trade from established levels instead of chasing price.
Use indicators as part of a confluence-based process.
Treat the Cycle Trender as confirmation, not as a standalone entry signal.
Allow winning trades room to develop while tightening risk as price advances.
In a range-bound market, focus on rotations between support, resistance, VWAP, and target zones.
Quiet conditions can still produce excellent trades when patience and structure are maintained.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, July 16, 2026
Market Tone
US equity futures are modestly higher as strong bank earnings and continued AI optimism offset geopolitical and inflation concerns.
Sentiment remains cautiously constructive, but markets are highly sensitive to Middle East headlines and oil prices.
ES and NQ remain supported by momentum, though both are vulnerable to sudden headline-driven reversals.
Geopolitics and Energy
Escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf are keeping crude oil elevated.
Higher oil prices may support energy stocks but pressure technology, transportation, industrial, and consumer-related sectors.
United Airlines expects roughly $6 billion in additional fuel costs, highlighting the margin risks facing airlines and logistics companies.
A breakout in crude above recent resistance could shift the broader macro tone more bearish.
Earnings and AI
Morgan Stanley reported a strong quarter, driven in part by AI-related dealmaking and advisory revenue.
Nvidia’s partnership with Japanese robotics firms reinforces continued demand for AI infrastructure and automation.
Rising electricity costs for data centers remain a potential headwind for hyperscalers and other AI-intensive companies.
Earnings Calendar
Before the open
Abbott Laboratories
Citizens Financial
GE Aerospace
Prologis
State Street
Taiwan Semiconductor
US Bancorp
UnitedHealth
Wipro
After the close
Alcoa
Intuitive Surgical
Netflix
Friday morning
Fifth Third
Regions Financial
Travelers
Truist Financial
Economic Calendar
8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 a.m. ET: Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Pending Home Sales
12:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
1:25 p.m. ET: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks
ES Technical Levels
ES remains inside a short-term uptrend channel.
Resistance: 7697–7702
Higher resistance: 8120–8125
Support: 7548–7552
50-day moving average: 7531.50
Lower support: 7170–7175
A move above 7702 would bring the all-time high and the broader 7700 area into focus.
Volatility and Positioning
Volatility remains moderately elevated but is beginning to ease as ES approaches its all-time high.
The five-day average daily range has contracted to 72 points from 80 points.
Geopolitical developments and political headlines remain potential volatility catalysts.
Overnight large-trader volume was too light to establish a meaningful whale bias.
