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They Crammed the Week, Flipped the MIM, and the ES Still Wants Higher
Danny Riley
June 18, 2026
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As I have said many times, they cram a lot into a 4-session week, and so far that’s been spot on. My theory about the big buy and then big sell imbalances has also been correct: Friday buy, Monday sell; Tuesday buy, Wednesday sell. It’s all cash front running.
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Goldman Sachs
Here are some links from what Goldman Sachs say is a “Special Edition.”
Harvard Business Review:How to Have a Successful Career Alongside AI
Dan @ GTC Traders
Exceptionally Encouraged
We have made no secret of our criticism of the Federal Reserve over the last several years.
We believed and stated many times that rates were lowered much too quickly and too aggressively. That there was far too much language towards an easing bias … despite all of the evidence that policy was too loose. We nearly called every single ‘flare up’ of higher inflationary prints … beforehand … to a ‘T’. We have hammered home again and again … with many positive proofs … that we are clearly within a structural inflationary environment.
We have a new Chairman at the Federal Reserve. And after Chairman Warsh's first press conference?
I have to say that I am exceptionally encouraged.
Both because of what he said, and also because of what he refused to say.
The last 20 years has been a clear example of horrendous style-drifting, and the standardization of deviations on the part of the Federal Reserve. To now in recent years we have arrived at a point where market participants have become accustomed to a Federal Reserve that practically spoon-feeding future policy intentions to investors. Every word was dissected. Every adjective scrutinized. Every speech parsed for clues. We were having to stop what we were doing and listen to Fed Speakers that seemed to have speeches every 4 minutes. Every appearance became an exercise in trying to divine what policymakers might do six months from now.
Somewhere along the way, markets stopped trading and they started waiting for instructions.
Yesterday felt like it could possibly be an actual admittance to such style-drifting, the errors that have been made, and an attempt to correct such errors. The policy statement was shorter.
Most importantly ... forward guidance was removed.
I am old enough to remember when the Federal Reserve occasionally surprised people on purpose. Imagine that.
The market's job is to price probabilities. The Fed's job is to conduct monetary policy. Those are not the same thing.
Yet over the last decade, a generation of traders has grown up believing the central bank exists primarily to explain every future move in advance. The result has been an unhealthy dependency upon guidance rather than analysis.
A market observer noted that Chairman Warsh spoke for nearly an hour and yet revealed almost nothing about his personal views regarding the economy.
Excellent!
The Chairman's job is not to tell us what he personally thinks. His job is to lead the institution and execute policy consistent with the mandate. If you left the press conference feeling slightly uncomfortable ... perhaps even a little lost?
Good.
The market immediately began repricing probabilities. Looking over at the CME’s Fedwatch for Federal Serve probabilities, we saw the odds shift quickly. Rate expectations adjusted. Participants were forced to think instead of simply waiting to be told what to think.
That is how markets are supposed to function.
There was another aspect of the press conference that I found equally encouraging.
12-0
No dissents.
None.
We went from an institution that had become increasingly divided in its communication strategy, and one a historical dissension votte previously? To a unanimous vote behind an abbreviated statement and a new Chairman. And that Chairman had everyone on board. That’s good leadership.
Also? Many people outside the Federal Reserve do not appreciate the sheer intellectual firepower that exists within the System. Some of the research and working papers produced by Fed specialists are extraordinary. Yet for years there has been a persistent criticism that much of that expertise remained disconnected from policy formation.
Chairman Warsh appears determined to change that. Excellent. That strikes us as both humble and practical.
Now, does this mean Chairman Warsh will ultimately be successful? Who knows? Maybe. Maybe not. One press conference proves nothing. As is the case with trading, it is execution that matters.
But if you asked me for my initial reaction after watching the press conference?
Exceptionally encouraged.
Now … if they can just keep this great momentum moving forward.
Until next time, stay safe, and trade well ...
The ES traded in a 7581.25 to 7612.50 Globex trading range on low volume of 177k and opened Wednesday’s regular session at 7595.75, up 7.75 points or +0.10%.
After the open, the ES sold off down to 7583.25, rallied 17.00 points up to 7600.25, sold off 21.75 points down to 7578.50 at 10:00, rallied 25.75 points up to 7604.25 at 10:20, sold off 43.75 points down to a new low at 7560.50 at 10:40, rallied up to 7588.75, and sold off 20.75 points down to a higher low at 7568.00 at 11:05.
The ES fell into a sideways-to-up back-and-fill pattern and traded into a 7593.25 double top at 12:25, sold off 24.75 points down to 7568.50 at 1:05, fell into another 5-to-7-point back-and-fill from 7572.00 to 7579.50 until 1:45, rallied up to the VWAP at 7590.50, and then dropped 76.00 points down to a new low at 7514.50 after these 2:00 Fed headlines hit the tape:
*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE
*FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
*FED SAYS COMMITTEE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY
After the drop, the ES rallied 69.75 points up to 7584.25 at 2:40, sold off 60.01 points down to 7524.25 at 3:10, rallied 27.25 points up to 7551.50 at 3:15, and then dropped down to 7497.50 at 3:25, rallied up to 7513.50 at 3:28, sold off down to a new low at 7472.25, rallied 20 points up to 7492.25 at 3:45. The ES traded 7488.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $5.5 billion to sell, sold off down to 7474.00, and traded 7492.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 7504.50, sold off 14.5 points down to 7490.00 at 4:16, rallied 15.5 points up to 7515.50 at 4:40, and settled at 7511.00, down 76.25 points or -1.0%. The NQ settled at 30,141.75, down 172 points or -0.57%, the YM settled at 50,049, down 421 points or -0.80%, and the RTY settled at 2,951.60, down 12.60 points or -0.43%.
In the end, it was a very choppy, low-volume two-way trade until the Fed flunk-a-dunk. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the NQ, YM, and RTY were all trading higher on the day, while the ES was down before the Fed, and then all four got slammed. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was around 750k just before the Fed and ended up at 1.7 million contracts traded.
It’s not just the $5.3 to $5.5 trillion June Quad Witching today; there is also some decent-sized rebalancing they are going to throw into the mix.
This week’s June Quad Witching is expected to generate significant volume and volatility across the major indexes as quarterly index rebalancing, options expiration, and institutional portfolio adjustments converge. The largest impact comes from the S&P 500 rebalance, with index funds and ETFs executing large buy and sell programs at Thursday’s close, including the addition of $MRVL (Marvell Technology) and $FLEX (Flex), and the removal of $POOL (Pool Corporation) and $CPB (Campbell Soup Company).
June also marks a key mid-year portfolio realignment period for institutional investors, prompting sector rotations and exposure adjustments. With the Juneteenth holiday falling on Friday, expiration and rebalancing activity will occur on Thursday, concentrating the heaviest market-on-close order imbalances and structural volume into the final hour of trading.
MiM
The MOC opened with a strong sell imbalance and never fully escaped that tone. At 15:50, the book showed only a small sample, with a -$77M net sell and a -100% dollar and symbol lean. Once the broader book populated at 15:51, the imbalance expanded sharply to -$5.206B, with $2.167B to buy against $7.373B to sell. That gave the market a -77.3% dollar lean and -62.4% symbol lean, immediately putting the auction into a heavy sell-bias condition.
From there, the imbalance stayed deeply negative through the final ten minutes. The largest sell pressure came between 15:51 and 15:55, with total net imbalances ranging from roughly -$3.94B to -$5.03B. The book then improved after 15:56, narrowing to less than -$1B, but the direction remained sell-side into the close. At 16:00, the MOC still showed -$391M, and 16:01 finished around -$516M, suggesting some offsetting buy interest but not enough to flip the tone.
The most aggressive sector selling was concentrated in Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary. Technology was the standout with a massive -$3.239B total and a -91.9% dollar lean, clearly wholesale selling. Communication Services was also extremely weak at -$650.32M and -87.5%, while Energy posted -$247.55M with an -82.0% lean. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary were also notable, both below -70%. Industrials sat near the threshold at -66.0%, making it meaningfully sell-biased but slightly less extreme.
On the symbol side, the largest sell imbalances were MU, NVDA, MRVL, AMZN, AVGO, AAPL, GOOG, AMAT, GOOGL, TSLA, and AMD. This confirms the pressure was heavily mega-cap and semiconductor-led. Buy-side offsets were much smaller and more defensive or idiosyncratic, led by PM, META, COHR, ORCL, SRE, IBM, NSC, APD, CIEN, and UNH.
Overall, this was not a rotational close. The -77.3% dollar lean and major sector skews point to a broad institutional sell program, especially in tech and growth leadership.
Today’s Links:
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, June 17, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 22% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 34% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 26% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 35% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 115 / 73
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 170 / 149
• NYSE TRIN: 1.24
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.92
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, June 12, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 266 / 197
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 556 / 511
• NYSE TRIN: 1.79
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.27
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Today’s Economic Calendar
Earnings:
PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, June 17, 2026
The session was a classic Fed Day “wild-card” trade: early PTG levels worked cleanly, the room stayed flexible as the market shifted, and the post-FOMC volatility created both risk and opportunity. David’s key guidance centered on respecting targets, avoiding panic, and using the dip-buying setup once the Cycle Day range projection was fulfilled.
Opening Framework
David identified the day as Cycle Day 3 “Wild-Card.”
The early upper target at 7610 and lower target at 7580 had both been tagged precisely.
The room was reminded that it was Fed Day, making preparation and discipline especially important.
Key reference level: prior close at 7583.
Morning Trade Action
David noted that the DLMB was playing out precisely.
Initial downside objectives were identified at:
7580
7565
7555
A strong member example came from taking a long on reclaim of the D+ level, then flipping short at the ATR 7 Bear RSPR.
Lesson: the room was trading level to level, not forcing a fixed bias.
Midday Shift
David identified the Open Range Low at 7585 as the next hurdle to reclaim.
As price stabilized, he called it another solid BTFD opportunity.
The room shifted to a long lean before the Fed announcement.
Lesson: flexibility mattered; the market required traders to adjust as conditions changed.
FOMC Reaction
At 2:00 PM, the Fed held rates unchanged but removed language about additional rate adjustments.
The dot plot showed nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one 2026 hike.
ES reacted with a sharp nose dive.
David noted price was retesting the weekly gap-up low, calling it a key test of bull resolve.
Best Positive Trade
The key opportunity came after the post-Fed flush.
David called out: “Gotta BTFD.”
The Cycle Day range projection was fulfilled at 7518 and reversed.
Price later worked back toward important reclaim areas:
VWAP near 7576
Prior low near 7578
Lesson: traders who avoided panic and waited for the projected support zone had the cleaner opportunity.
Afternoon Volatility
David warned that 20–30 handle swings were active.
He explained that negative gamma conditions were increasing volatility.
Dealers were adding to volatility as they needed to sell.
The 7497 VPOC was filled, which David said officially closed the “I-RAN gap.”
Into the close, a $5.5 billion MOC sell imbalance hit.
Closing Tone
David summed up the session as a “fun day” and referred to the move as “The Great Fed RESET.”
The S&P finished down about 1.25%.
The day showed how Fed headlines, gamma conditions, and closing imbalances can quickly reshape market structure.
Key Lessons Learned
Prepared levels matter: PTG’s targets and projections gave the room structure during a volatile headline-driven session.
Do not panic at extremes: The 7518 Cycle Day projection reversal rewarded patient traders.
Stay flexible: The room moved from downside objectives to a BTFD long lean as conditions changed.
Fed Days demand caution: Smaller size, quicker decisions, and respect for volatility were essential.
Trade the reaction, not the emotion: The best opportunity came from waiting for price to reach a meaningful level instead of chasing the initial FOMC move.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, June 18, 2026
Market Tone
US equity futures are higher after the US–Iran interim deal eased immediate geopolitical tail risk.
Risk appetite is improving, with volatility lower and markets shifting from crisis-pricing toward normalization-pricing.
Traders are watching whether the deal holds and how quickly Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions normalize.
Macro Headwinds
Fed commentary remains hawkish, with officials still signaling openness to another hike due to sticky inflation and tight labor conditions.
Kevin Warsh’s early tone as Fed Chair is being viewed as more inflation-focused and hawkish than markets had priced.
This may limit upside momentum ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
Tech Leadership
Semiconductors remain a key support for the broader market.
Analysts raised targets on Micron and Marvell, citing AI demand, better memory pricing, and stronger data-center orders.
Tech is likely to lead if the risk-on tone holds.
Today’s Calendar
8:30am ET: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Jobless Claims
10:00am ET: CB Leading Index
Premarket earnings: Accenture and Kroger
Reminder: US stock markets are closed tomorrow for Juneteenth.
Volatility & Flow
Volatility remains elevated after yesterday’s Fed-driven range.
The 5-day average daily range eased slightly to 126.75 points from 128.5 points.
Conditions may quiet into the afternoon as markets shift into holiday mode.
Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30am data on light overnight large-trader volume.
ES Levels
ES bounced above the intermediate uptrend channel bottom near 7470/75, which is constructive.
The rising 50-day MA near 7401.25 remains loose support below.
Resistance: 7575/80, 7635/40, 7900/05
Support: 7470/75, 7255/60
