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The NQ Can’t Catch a Bid and NVDA Won’t Stop Bleeding — All Eyes on Wednesday
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The NQ is down 6 of the last 7 for a total loss of -1,082.75, or -3.59%, vs. the 7-day NVDA chart. While the ES has sold off, NVDA has fallen 7 sessions in a row, -16.82 points, or -7.47%, for its longest losing streak since September 2022.
Is there a correlation? It sure looks that way to me. Is the selling tied to Wednesday’s earnings? I don’t know, but if you go back to a longer time frame, like 3 weeks to a month or longer, it’s clear that when NVDA is down, the NQ is down, also.
I think what stood out about yesterday was that, in most cases, when oil falls and the bonds rally, the ES and NQ rally, but that was not the case. My question: Is the NQ and NVDA weakness reading into what could be a weak earnings report, or is it a setup that will catch the shorts off base?
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Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
Midstream Energy
Williams Companies (WMB)
Williams (WMB) is the cleanest picture in the group.
Price migrated out of the high 50s into the mid 70s and has done nothing since. Six months of balance.
Five trips down to the 70 area, five holds. Not one produced acceptance below. The upside has been less generous. Two attempts cleared the top and both came back inside.
Balanced, not exploring. Sellers own the highs. Buyers own 70.
Kinder Morgan (KMI)
Kinder Morgan (KMI) is the same story.
Price ran from the high 20s to the mid 30s, then stalled. Five months of balance.
Six trips down to 31.00, six holds. Like Williams, buyers own the low end and have not missed. The upside got one clean look above the top and it came right back in.
With the energy sector stocks being one of the better performers in the markets I expect both WMB and KMI to challenge the tops of their balance areas
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here
The ES traded in a 7664.50 to 7703.25 Globex trading range. It printed the Globex high of 7703.25 at 8:00 p.m. ET Sunday and the Globex low of 7664.50 at 7:05 a.m. Monday. The ES opened Monday’s 9:30 ET regular session at 7681.75, down 6.00 points, or -0.08%, from Friday’s 7687.75 settlement.
After the open, the ES sold off 26.75 points from 7681.75 at 9:30 to the 7655.00 initial-balance and regular-session low at 9:45, reversed 20.50 points up to 7675.50 at 10:40, then pulled back 17.75 points to 7657.75 at 11:20. It rallied 28.75 points from 7657.75 at 11:20 to the 7686.50 regular-session high at 12:20.
It reversed from the high and declined 22.00 points to 7664.50 at 1:45 before recovering 20.75 points to 7685.25 at 2:30, sold off 12.75 points down to 7672.50 at 3:00, traded 7676.75 at 3:15, then declined to 7668.00 during the 3:50 bar as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.5 billion to buy. The imbalance flipped to $800 million to sell, and the ES traded 7669.75 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES rallied to 7673.50 at 4:05, declined to 7666.50 at 4:20, traded 7671.75 at 4:45, traded up to 7675.00, and settled at 7674.25, down 13.50 points, or -0.18%. The NQ settled at 29,131.25 at 5:00, down 242.75 points, or -0.83%; the YM settled at 53,517, up 187 points, or +0.35%; and the RTY settled at 3005.30, down 15.80 points, or -0.52%, on the day.
In the end, and despite lower oil prices and higher bond prices, Nvidia (NVDA) fell for the 7th day in a row. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, there were some big rotations: BUY YM / Sell RTY and NQ. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low at 1.04 million contracts traded.
People Have Choices $BTCU26 vs $GDXY
When I bought the GDXY chart two weeks ago, I was also looking at Bitcoin. I remember being on TikTok and hearing a woman trader who has a large following say that she was bearish and talking about a head-and-shoulders formation.
I have to admit, I am not a big fan of Bitcoin or the BTCU26 futures, but—and in trading, there are always buts—the chart really looked like it was trying to hold the 63,000 level, and I told the PitBull this, and he agreed.
I looked up 3 Bitcoin ETFs, $IBIT, $FBTC, and $GBTC. None of that matters, though, because I never pulled the trigger.
It’s 8:30 PM, and if you include tonight’s Globex session, the BTCU26 has been up 7 days in a row, up a whopping 16,955 points, or +26.81%, vs. the 7-day GDXY chart.
As the old saying goes, you are only as good as your last trade...
MOC Opens With Wholesale Buying, Reverses Into the Close
The MOC opened with a strong $2.1B buy imbalance, driven by $4.0B in buys against $1.9B in sells. The all-market dollar lean was +68.2%, putting the opening firmly in wholesale-buy territory, while the symbol lean was only +56.1%, with 381 buy symbols versus 298 sells. That difference showed a concentrated dollar program rather than a broad-based rush into everything.
The S&P 500 carried a +$2.0B imbalance with a +68.6% dollar lean, while Nasdaq showed +$1.5B and an even stronger +76.6% dollar lean. NYSE was positive at +$653.4M, but its +60.6% dollar lean was more rotational. The Nasdaq reading was especially notable because the dollar flow was far more aggressive than the +63.5% symbol lean.
The opening buy program was concentrated in several sectors. Communication Services led with +$523.3M and a +96.6% dollar lean. Consumer Discretionary posted +$267.6M at +76.6%, Energy +$82.2M at +72.8%, Materials +$56.3M at +72.3%, Utilities +$44.3M at +67.1%, and Information Technology +$635.3M at +66.5%. Those readings point to aggressive institutional buying, although Technology was internally mixed.
At the symbol level, MU was the largest buy at +$339.8M, followed by GOOG +$311.5M, V +$238.0M, NVDA +$209.6M, SNDK +$161.8M, MSFT +$90.3M, TSLA +$86.1M, AMZN +$71.6M, PLTR +$71.0M, and SBUX +$70.6M. On the sell side, LRCX led at -$96.9M, followed by TXN -$92.6M, KLAC -$81.9M, MDT -$61.1M, WDAY -$54.9M, and WDC -$52.9M. The semiconductor split was striking: MU and NVDA were bought while LRCX, TXN, and KLAC were sold.
The key story was the transition. The imbalance fell to +$650.0M by 15:53, flipped negative at 15:54, reached -$728.0M at 15:57, and recovered to nearly flat at -$10.0M by 16:00. What began as a wholesale buy program ultimately turned into late rotational selling. That reversal erased nearly all of the initial buy imbalance and left the closing cross essentially balanced overall.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, August 24, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 64 / 67
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 150 / 138
NYSE TRIN: 1.03
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.76
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, August 21, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 202 / 259
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 473 / 446
NYSE TRIN: 0.64
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.62
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
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BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, August 24, 2026
Monday developed into a lower-volume, choppy balancing session that matched David’s early warning about vacation-week “snaps n traps.” The best results came from staying patient, respecting key reference levels, and taking only clearly defined PTG setups rather than forcing directional trades.
Morning Outlook
David identified the session as Cycle Day 3.
Price remained above the CD1 low at 7657.75, keeping the probability of a positive three-day cycle very high at 92.92%.
Overnight price held between the DTS “bookends” of approximately 7660 and 7705.
The key Line in the Sand for the session was 7695.
David warned that the final major vacation week of summer could produce thinner participation and deceptive “snaps n traps” price action.
A busy economic calendar and upcoming Nvidia earnings also remained part of the broader market backdrop.
Positive Trades and Targets
The strongest early opportunity developed on the short side.
The DLMB setup triggered during the morning and “shot and scored,” drawing positive feedback from several room members.
The successful trade reinforced the importance of waiting for recognizable PTG setups instead of chasing movement inside a balancing market.
Later in the session, the 7680 target was filled.
The combination of the early short-side opportunity and the later target achievement provided the clearest positive trade outcomes of the day.
Intraday Market Structure
David tracked the Open Range midpoint near 7675 as an important reference.
VWAP was near 7681, and price became stuck around that area.
Bulls attempted to regain control, but David noted they still needed to convert the Open Range High into support before meaningful upside expansion could develop.
The inability to create sustained expansion helped confirm that the session remained rotational rather than directional.
By early afternoon, David characterized the market as another choppy balancing-day rhythm.
Volume and Market Conditions
Bruce noted that ES volume had declined from roughly 1.5 million contracts per day at the end of July to about 1.01 million.
The reduced activity fit David’s early warning about summer vacation conditions.
Lower participation increased the likelihood of false breaks, sharp reversals, and less reliable follow-through.
The session rewarded traders who adjusted expectations to the environment instead of expecting a large trend move.
Order Flow and Wyckoff Lessons
The room spent considerable time discussing Wyckoff-style analysis.
David emphasized the relationship between effort and result when reading price and volume.
Traders discussed trapped buyers, trapped sellers, absorption, delta, and order-flow imbalances.
Profile shape was highlighted as an important factor when interpreting the broader auction.
The “Pac-Man effect” was discussed as a useful concept for recognizing how aggressive buying or selling can be absorbed.
The lesson was to evaluate order flow in context rather than relying on a single imbalance or isolated bar.
Indicator and Trend Lessons
David confirmed that the PTG Leading Line is the 13 EMA.
The discussion reinforced using moving averages as part of a broader directional framework rather than as standalone trade signals.
The room also reviewed how PTG tools can help determine whether buyers or sellers are controlling the auction.
Trading Psychology
David shared the idea that a “difficult market” only becomes difficult when traders abandon their rules or overcomplicate their process.
A market either fits a tested setup or it does not.
Too many indicators, too many screens, and too much discretionary interpretation can create unnecessary confusion.
David also emphasized persistence and patience through the Chinese Bamboo Tree analogy.
The message was to remain faithful to a sound process even when immediate progress is not visible.
Key Takeaways
Respect the market environment before choosing a strategy.
Expect more traps and reversals during thin, vacation-week trading.
Let key references such as LIS, VWAP, and the Open Range guide trade decisions.
Wait for clearly defined PTG setups instead of forcing trades in balance.
Use order flow and profile structure to understand who may be trapped or absorbed.
Keep the trading process simple, repeatable, and rule-based.
Monday showed that even a choppy session can produce quality opportunities when patience and discipline remain the priority.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Market Setup
US futures are recovering ahead of Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering.
Compressed volatility could amplify any surprise from NVDA guidance or Fed commentary.
Treasury yields remain the main macro headwind, while softer oil and a weaker dollar are providing some support to risk assets.
Trade tensions are back in focus after Trump threatened 50% auto tariffs on Canada.
ES Levels
ES remains in a sideways range, with no significant overnight whale bias.
Key support: 7618/15.
A clean break below 7618/15 could put the 7500 area in play over the next couple of sessions.
The 50-day MA at 7591.75 remains loose support.
Key resistance: 7847/52.
Additional supports: 7460/65, 7306/01, and 7115/10.
Economic Calendar
8:15 ET: ADP Weekly Employment Change.
9:00 ET: HPI and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI.
10:00 ET: Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and Richmond Manufacturing Index.
Earnings
Today premarket: BMO, BNS, BKS, WDS.
After the bell: HEI, INTU, GFI, ZM.
Wednesday morning: DCI, DY, LI, SJM, WSM.
Wednesday after the bell: NVDA, HPQ, CRM.
Risk Watch
Long-end Treasury yields remain the key macro catalyst.
Watch for headlines involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel, the West Bank, Fed or Treasury commentary, and Trump social media posts.
ES 5-day average daily range has eased slightly to 63.25 points.
