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Our View

The PitBull said there is structural rot in the market and that sometimes the end-of-year rally doesn't begin until the first week of December. He also mentioned there's "so much uncertainty." Adding to that, the Labor Department said Thursday that it will announce revised data release dates “as they become available,” though some believe it will come sooner, as it is based on data collected before the shutdown.

While I’ve been bullish and the ES has moved my way, the wild card was clear to see. During the ES rally up to 6900.50, the NQ was clearly lagging. Over the last 10 sessions, the ES has closed up 7 and down 3, or up 4 of the last 5 sessions. The NQ, however, has been down in 6 of the last 8 sessions, including 3 in a row. Was it a bad fall? It looked that way.

The Magnificent 7 took a hit, shedding approximately $198 billion in market cap from yesterday’s close. That’s a -1.3% drop from their combined $15.2 trillion valuation heading into the day. Is the selling over? I think the tech/AI selling has been persistent for the past two weeks, but now it seems the selling has caught up with the overbought, overextended, and over-invested sectors.

The markets are acting like crap, but the ES is only down 2.36% from its all-time contract high, and the NQ is about 4.8% off its all-time high. I heard someone mention the NQ could be on its way to a 10% correction. In the news, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has a solid plan to manage U.S. debt, which includes a growing reliance on money market funds and stablecoins. This is supposedly coming soon...

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Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

Founder's Note:

Futures are off 1%, with PPI on deck.

TLDR: While we were admittedly leaning long while SPX was above the 6,800 Risk Pivot, we are now all bearing witness to the "elevator down" dynamics present when flows shift from supportive to destructive. On this topic we have no clear risk-on level at the moment, as gamma is negative across the board and there is no clear sentiment/position clearing until Wed.

SPX gamma is negative across the full strike spectrum, which should keep volatility high. The key insight here is that gamma is pretty flat when you look south of current SPX levels (ref ~6,700, to the left of the yellow arrow). This suggests that traders are not long a lot of puts. Additionally, we don't currently see a strong downside level to latch on to in terms of support and todays expiration does little to relieve the negative gamma condition.

This highlights a key point here: what can relieve the downside pressure? From a positioning standpoint we'd start to look at Wed VIX Exp & Friday OPEX, with NVDA earnings also falling on Wednesday. That time frame seems to be the chance for a change in sentiment along with a clearing of the positions driving volatility.

If you look at top single stocks you get a similar idea in that there isn't a ton of negative gamma to the downside, but stocks are plunging (TSLA is 385 premarket!). You see this in the lack of GEX <375. The implication with this is that there is some "real money selling" - investors selling shares to escape with what they can into year end as AI sentiment has turned quite ugly after being euphoric just a week ago. For a bottoming signal we are looking for:

• Material put sellers step into these top single stocks.

• Put skews and IV ranks >50%

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Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Market Recap

It took four consecutive higher closes to trade up to 6900.50 on Wednesday. Everything looked fine… or did it? No—because while the ES continued grinding higher, up four sessions in a row for a gain of 1.9%, the NQ had closed lower in 6 of the last 8 sessions. It was either down 3 in a row, down 5 of the last 7, or down 3 in a row again—for a loss of 2.9% from Wednesday’s highs and you can tag on another +1.5% in globex as of now (7:30am ET Friday).

The ES sold off down to 6841.50 on Globex and opened Thursday’s regular session at 6847.25, down 28.75 points or -0.42%. It sold off initially, then traded up to 6849.25, dropped to 6816.75, rallied to 6850.25 at 10:15, and then sold off to 6783.00 at 11:42. From there, it bounced to 6806.00 at 12:33. After a lower high, the ES dropped to 6756.25 at 1:39, rallied again to 6777.50 at 2:30, and then sold off to a 6746.00 double bottom at 3:21. It bounced to 6771.50 at 3:39 and traded 6756.50 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $2.1 billion to buy, pulled back to 6748.50 at 3:54, and traded 6772.00 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES rallied to 6778.00 at 4:15, sold off, and settled at 6752.50, down 104.50 points or -1.42%. The NQ settled at 25,087.50, down 390.25 points or -1.53%—its largest decline (along with the ES and YM) since October 10.

In the end, the continued liquidation in the tech/AI stocks persisted. In terms of the ES and NQ's overall tone, there was steady selling in the NQ all day. As for ES volume, it was elevated, with 2 million contracts traded.

The markets giveth and the markets taketh—that's how the game is played. After Trump signed off on the government reopening, sellers showed up in force. Everyone knew that once the government reopened, a backlog of data would be released. That uncertainty has raised doubts about whether the Fed can lower interest rates in December. This pushed the YM down 821 points (-1.70%) and the RTY down 3%, marking its lowest level since May. According to CME Fed Funds, the probability of a December rate cut fell from 63% on Wednesday to 50%, down from 70% last week.

MiM

Market-On-Close Recap

The MOC flow opened the 15:50 window with a strong buy surge that immediately pushed both imbalances and price higher. Between 15:49 and 15:52, the imbalance flipped from flat to +$2.36B, and the ES responded with a string of green candles, lifting steadily as buy programs hit across the S&P and NASDAQ. That early thrust was driven almost entirely by tech and growth—AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, AVGO, AMD, AMAT, PLTR, and META all showed strong buy-side leans, and sector tables confirmed the same: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical were all heavily bid.

The tone shifted sharply at 15:53. The imbalance began to compress as the sell side expanded, and the price chart caught it instantly with consecutive red candles. By 15:54–15:55, the sell imbalance had ballooned to nearly –$4.7B, pushing the total to a deep –$3.23B. This aligns with the two strongest red bars of the sequence: heavy selling pressure, lower lows, and an air pocket where buyers stepped aside. That 15:55 bar marks the pivot—both on the imbalance table and the chart.

After that washout, the imbalance began to retrace. From 15:56 forward, sells softened and the total improved from –$1.17B to –$887M to –$266M by 15:58. The price action mirrored the unwind: stabilization at 15:56, then a progressive climb as green candles stacked into 15:57 and 15:59. By 16:00, a strong closing push lifted price back near the top of the recovery range even though the final imbalance remained slightly negative at –$258M.

Sector behavior validated the rotation underneath: tech remained the dominant recipient of buy flow, while semiconductors were unusually split—large-cap names like NVDA, QCOM, and KLAC printed heavy sell leans even as AMD, AVGO, and AMAT were bid. Defensive sectors (Utilities, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive) printed wholesale selling with leans below –50%.

In summary: early buy-side acceleration lifted markets into 15:52, a violent mid-window sell imbalance at 15:55 drove a sharp intraminute drop, and a steady unwind restored price into the close. The MOC dictated the entire sequence, and the price action tracked it minute for minute.

On the MIM:

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for November 14, 2025

• SP: 21.67

• NQ: 92.43

• Dow: 92.88

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, November 13, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 22.6% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 36.5% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 35.1% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 22.0% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 20.7% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 21.2% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 86 / 91

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 111 / 283

• NYSE TRIN: 1.09

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.45

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, November 7, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 48.4% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 47.0% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 47.5% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 44.1% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 30.6% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 35.5% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 223 / 242

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 345 / 608

• NYSE TRIN: 0.82

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.49

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Thursday, November 13, 2025

The day opened with a well-defined trade plan, and both bull and bear scenarios from the DTS briefing were fulfilled early. The session quickly turned into a heavy downtrend, with multiple high-probability short setups playing out successfully across ES, NQ, and CL. Key levels were respected, and traders capitalized on open range breakouts and failed support zones.

Key Trades & Highlights:

• Open Range Shorts (ES, NQ, CL):

  • All three indices hit OPR short targets. David confirmed a "Trifecta" of OR breakout winners by late morning.

  • ES short targets hit TGT 1 and TGT 2; CL also hit TGT 1 and trailed for more.

• PeterN’s Prop Account Success:

  • 5/6 OPR trades were winners on his prop evaluations. Strong validation of the setup.

• Bosier’s Execution Masterclass:

  • Initiated shorts near 6830s, scaled in efficiently down to 22, then built size back up near 45.

  • Covered skillfully and locked in gains. David and others dubbed it a “Trade of the Day.”

  • Flat by mid-morning, ending the session on a strong note.

• Cycle Day Analysis:

  • CD1 projected decline hit early (6833.66), then market plunged further.

  • David flagged the 6803 → 6788 → 6772 zone as critical — ultimately fulfilled.

  • Final low printed at 6747.75, hitting TargetMaster’s most extreme level.

• Late Session Imbalances:

  • Brief MOC buy imbalance ($2.1B) flipped aggressively to a sell imbalance ($3B), accelerating the late-day selloff into the close.

Lessons & Takeaways:

• Respect Range Triggers: Open Range setups across all instruments delivered strong returns — reinforcing the importance of executing around the opening structure.

• Cycle Day Stats Matter: CD1 statistical projections helped frame the downside potential accurately.

• Avoid Knife Catching: Repeated warnings throughout the day — fading without confirmation in a strong trend leads to trouble.

• Stay Nimble Post-Lunch: While bulls tried to counter, MOC shifts confirmed bears held control.

Sentiment:
Dominated by selling. Margin calls and MOC sell pressure drove price to extremes. No mercy for longs.

Summary:
A textbook trend-down day with well-defined short opportunities and disciplined execution. The room navigated it effectively with multiple members posting solid wins.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!

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