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The Magnificent 7 Are Not So Magnificent
Danny Riley
June 03, 2026
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1-Month Magnificent 7 Chart
NVIDIA Corp. $NVDA has closed lower 9 out of the last 12 sessions, down 12.92 points or -5.84%, and if you took at Monday’s 6.26% gain, it would be down -11.74%.
Microsoft Corp. $MSFT has closed lower in 10 of the last 17 sessions and is up 20.54 points or +4.88%, or 101.95 points off its last 2025 / early 2026 highs.
Apple Inc. $AAPL has closed higher 15 out of the last 23 sessions and is up 45.03 points or +16.67% — up 8.89% yesterday.
Alphabet Inc. $GOOGL has closed down 11 out of the last 16 sessions and is down 62.54 points or -16.10%.
Amazon.com, Inc. $AMZN has closed lower 11 out of the last 18 sessions and is down 38.10 points or -14.12%.
Meta Platforms Inc. $META is down 13 out of the last 25 sessions and is down 89.99 points or -11.93%.
Tesla, Inc. $TSLA has closed higher 8 out of the last 15 sessions and is down 21.26 points or -4.78%.
To this point, I physically went in and pulled the net changes of the Mag 7. While the number of days I pulled varied, I went back from when the winning or losing streaks started. When I was done, I asked Gemini to calculate the total market cap change of the Mag 7, and this is what it came up with:
To find out exactly how much market capitalization has been wiped out or added based on your figures, we can apply the point changes directly to each company's current shares outstanding.
Because these figures track different lookback periods, ranging from 12 to 25 sessions, this gives us a great snapshot of the individual damage—and resilience—across the mega-caps during this recent stretch of volatility.
Here is the breakdown of the market cap impact for each stock, based on your data and current share counts:
The Totals
Total Lost by the 5 Declining Names: Together, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and TSLA shed a massive $1.780 trillion in market cap over their respective down periods.
Total Added by the 2 Advancing Names: Microsoft and Apple bucked the trend, pumping a combined $837.07 billion back into the sandbox, driven largely by Apple's monster 16.67% run.
Net Magnificent 7 Impact: Across these various timeframes, the net impact on the cluster is a loss of -$943.31 billion.
A Few Technical Observations on Your Notes
NVDA's True Damage: If you strip out that Monday bounce, as you suggested, the structural decline expands from -12.92 points to roughly -26.75 points. On 24.5 billion shares, that means NVDA's peak-to-trough hit during this 12-session window was actually closer to -$655 billion before finding brief relief.
MSFT's Hidden Bleed: While Microsoft is technically up 20.54 points over its 17-session tracking period, your note highlights that it sits 101.95 points off its cycle highs. That means from its absolute peak, Microsoft has quietly shaved -$757.49 billion off the top.
It is a stark reminder of just how much absolute weight Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia carry right now—when they catch a cold, the broader market indices lose blood fast, even if Apple is out there putting up historic green sessions to try and cushion the fall.
Like I have always said, I am not a Wall Street analyst, I'm just a guy from Chicago who didn't go to college and ended up on the CME Group trading floor in the S&P 500 futures and options and has been part of every major correction since 1985. While the S&P 500 is posting its longest winning streak of 2026, both the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq have made new all-time highs, while the most important 7 stocks in the S&P, which roughly make up 35% of the index, are going down. I can't pretend to know how this is all going to pan out or when the “high is in,” but all of the above is something I don't think should be overlooked.
Our View
I was wrong in yesterday's lean. When the ES and NQ sold off their respective highs on Monday, sold off on Globex, and gapped lower on the open yesterday, I lost track of one simple rule: the trend is your friend. And both the ES and NQ fell into the support / back-and-fill areas. I thought there was a good chance of seeing lower prices, but there was a string of rotations into the YM, RTY, and NQ that dragged the ES up to new highs. I make no excuses about the call and some of my bad trading.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
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After the open, the ES traded 7596.50, traded up to 7605.25, pulled back to 7595.50 at 9:40, and then rallied 36.75 points up to 7632.25 at 11:20. It stutter-stepped down to the 7618.75 level at 12:35, rallied 8.75 points up to 7627.50 at 1:05, pulled back down to 7614.50 at 2:40, rallied up to 7623.75, and popped up to 7625.25 as the 3:50 imbalance went from $50 million to buy to almost $2 billion to buy and traded 7623.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7627.50 and then popped up to 7630.00 after Palo Alto Networks’ (PANW) earnings beat and jumped 12%. After the earnings bump up, the ES pulled back a few points and settled at 7625.25, up 27.00 points or +0.36%. The NQ settled at 30,123.50, up 118.25 points or +0.39%, the YM settled at 50,456, up 164 points or +0.33%, and the RTY settled at 2,342.10, up 18.50 points or +0.80% on the day.
In the end, it was another day of buying the lower opens or early weakness. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, the NQ was clearly the leader. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the low side: 205k ES traded on Globex and 795k traded on the day session, for a total of 1.00 million contracts traded, the lowest volume in 18 sessions.
1-Month Magnificent 7 Chart
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Day 1 (Jun 9th): How the House Sets the Odds
Day 2 (Jun 10th): Play the Right Game at the Right Time
Day 3 (Jun 11th): Manage Your Bankroll like a Professional
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
🎯 Cycle Day 2 Expectations
🔄 The balance process begins
🎯 Range development starts to take shape
⚖️ Buyers and sellers square off for control
💥 Reversal potential quietly increases
In other words…
Cycle Day 1 builds the momentum…
Cycle Day 2 installs the shock absorbers.
This is where the market says:
“Alright… everybody calm down… let’s figure this thing out.”
And for PTG traders?
That’s your cue to shift gears:
✔️ Less emotion
✔️ More structure
✔️ Cleaner, more deliberate opportunities
No need to force trades.
No need to chase moves.
Just stay patient… stay disciplined… and let the market come to you.
⚖️ Cycle Day 2 Objective: Balance… Consolidate…
Stay Patient.
Stay Disciplined.
Stay PTG.
🎯 Scenarios in Play
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stabilize & Reclaim
Acceptance Above: 7625 ±5
Upside Objectives
7635
7640
7645
This signals responsive buying evolving into initiative control.
⚠️ But remember:
This is recovery mode — not dominance yet.
🔴 Bear Case — Continued Rotation / Controlled Reset
Acceptance Below: 7625 ±5
Downside Objectives
7615
7605
7595
This is not panic selling —
This is an orderly distribution… the kind that grinds traders down.
📊 Key Reference Levels
PVA High Edge: 7630
PVA Low Edge: 7613
Prior POC: 7624
👉 Important:
These levels cluster tightly — forming a decision zone, not noise.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
The MOC opened with a clear buy-side tone, but it did not finish that way. At 15:50, the imbalance was a positive to +$403M, and the buy pressure expanded aggressively into 15:54, when the total imbalance peaked near +$3.05B. At that point, the auction looked like a broad institutional buy program, with $5.19B to buy versus $2.13B to sell and a strong +70.9% dollar lean.
After 15:54, however, the imbalance began to unwind. The buy total steadily faded from $5.19B to $642M by 16:01, while sell pressure stayed persistent. By 15:59, the MOC had flipped back to the sell side at -$451M, then finished around -$257M at 16:01. This transition from a large buy imbalance to a late sell imbalance suggests the early buy demand was absorbed or paired off into the close.
Sector action was mixed, but Information Technology carried the most important sell pressure. Tech finished with a -$823.95M net imbalance, driven by $1.80B for sale, with a -64.9% dollar lean and -52.4% symbol lean. That is close to notable wholesale sell territory by dollars. Financials also leaned heavily negative at -$202.38M, with a -65.9% dollar lean, just shy of the -66% threshold. Energy was smaller in dollars but showed a notable symbol lean at -63.3%.
On the buy side, Consumer Staples stood out with an +85.3% dollar lean, indicating concentrated wholesale buy demand. Consumer Discretionary was also strong at +89.7%, helped by AMZN and TSLA. Industrials and Materials were solidly positive, both above +67% by dollar lean.
Individual buy-side leaders included AMZN, NVDA, MSFT, PLTR, TSLA, COST, CAT, LLY, ADI, and ORCL. On the sell side, the largest pressure came from semiconductors and tech names, led by MU, MRVL, AVGO, QCOM, AMAT, ON, and MSTR, with Financials also represented by BAC and BRK.B. Overall, the close began as a strong buy imbalance but transitioned into a rotational-to-sell finish, with Tech supply dominating the late move.
Fair Values for June 3, 2026:
SP: 9.93
NQ: 47.05
Dow: 55.63
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Tuesday, June 2, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 54% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 144 / 60
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 422 / 146
• NYSE TRIN: 1.13
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the week ending Friday, May 29, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 267 / 104
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 858 / 256
• NYSE TRIN: 1.09
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.97
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, June 2, 2026
On Tuesday, the PTG room followed a well-defined Daily Trade Strategy map. David identified Cycle Day 1, marked the Line in the Sand at 7595, and tracked both downside and upside targets as price worked through the session. The strongest takeaway was that the day rewarded traders who respected the plan, stayed flexible, and kept execution simple.
Opening Framework
David opened with the key context for the day: Cycle Day 1.
The Line in the Sand was 7595, giving the room a central reference point.
Overnight action had already fulfilled the downside 7575 target and upside 7605 target.
David noted that bulls needed price above the 7605–7610 zone or the market could pause or consolidate.
Morning Market Tone
The session began with a fairly balanced internal backdrop.
David reported the AD Ratio at 49% advancing and 48% declining.
XLK showed a directional push higher, providing support for the broader index.
The room discussed the importance of not overcomplicating the read, especially when trading short-term price action.
Positive Trade Development
The 7615 target from the DTS Briefing was tagged.
David then identified the next upside target at 7625.
By late morning, David confirmed that both major DTS targets had been fulfilled:
Bear target: 7575
Bull target: 7625
This was the clearest success of the day: the preplanned trade map provided actionable targets on both sides.
Member Trade Highlights
Slatitude39 shared a short taken around 10:21 using a reverse BLT.
He then reversed long around 10:29 at 7605.50 off the A7 Bull RSPR.
Barbara recognized the quality of the setup, calling out a “beautiful first pullback” and congratulating the BLT work.
These trades highlighted the value of reading structure, adapting quickly, and using PTG tools with discipline.
Lessons Learned
Simplicity was a major theme. John B noted, “The more I add the worse I trade.”
The room reinforced that simple concepts often work best when paired with patience and verification.
Traders were reminded to verify first, rather than chase assumptions.
The discussion around psychology emphasized that internal feelings and perceptions can be one of the biggest trading challenges.
Key Takeaway
The day was a strong example of following the Daily Trade Strategy from preparation through execution.
Both bull and bear targets were fulfilled, confirming the value of the premarket map.
The best results came from respecting levels, keeping the process simple, adapting to price, and maintaining a steady mindset.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Market Tone
Index futures are modestly softer as traders balance geopolitical risk, tariff headlines, mixed tech flows, and a busy macro calendar.
Safe-haven demand is showing up with gold higher and Bitcoin weaker.
Oil has climbed for three straight sessions as Middle East tensions remain a key volatility driver.
Geopolitical & Macro Risk
US–Iran headlines remain the primary intraday catalyst.
Public friction between Trump and Netanyahu adds uncertainty around US–Israel alignment.
New US tariffs affecting 60 countries could pressure global supply chains, margins, and multinational stocks.
Markets will watch for retaliatory measures, exemptions, or escalation headlines.
Tech, IPOs & Market Breadth
AI and IPO speculation remain supportive themes, with SpaceX and DeepSeek drawing attention.
Most-active names include Nvidia, Nokia, Intel, SoFi, and Ford.
Breadth remains mixed, with tech strength offset by weakness in cyclicals and EVs.
Earnings Focus
Premarket: Medtronic.
After the close: Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Five Below, and Icon.
Thursday morning: Ciena.
Earnings could drive sector-specific volatility in semis, cybersecurity, DevOps, med-tech, and networking.
Economic Calendar
8:15am ET: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
9:45am ET: S&P Global Services PMI.
10:00am ET: ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders.
10:30am ET: Crude Oil Inventories.
2:00pm ET: Fed Beige Book.
Fed speakers: Michael Barr at 9:00am ET and Mary Daly at 3:00pm ET.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on Trump’s 2027 budget plan.
ES Technical Levels
Volatility continues to contract as ES trades near all-time highs.
ES 5-day average daily range fell to 58.25 points from 62.75.
Whale bias is bearish into the 8:15am ET ADP report on notable overnight large-trader volume.
ES is grinding along the former short-term uptrend channel top at 7605/10, which remains both support and resistance.
A hold above 7605/10 and break through 7655/60 could open room for a larger upside extension.
Key trendline support below sits near 7546/51.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7605/10, 7655/60, 7950/55
Support: 7546/51, 7458/63, 7407/12
