- The Opening Print
- Posts
- The Earnings Are Hot — But the Bond Market Is Sending a Different Message
The Earnings Are Hot — But the Bond Market Is Sending a Different Message
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
I have to admit, I went to my favorite spot last night and had...well, a few glasses of wine. I know sometimes I write too much and overexpress myself, but that’s because I love the markets. It doesn’t matter to me what you trade because it’s all about the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.
We get up at the crack of dawn, and we go to bed at the full moons; that will never change until we die. I assure you of that...
I don’t know where the Middle East war is going, but as I said yesterday, there is no way the U.S. or Trump can agree to the Iranian terms, and the president has lashed out with his own terms:
“I see that Representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran are asking for compensation for the damage done to them during the last five month Military Conflict (started because, THEY WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON), even though it was never mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings!” he wrote on Truth Social.
“Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years, not to mention the 52,000 that have been killed in the last five months. I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any and all future negotiations,” Trump concluded.
I hate posting something that was already in the mainstream news, but there was no way the administration could agree to Iran’s terms, and while I do not know how this will conclude, I know one thing: the U.S. will not submit to Iran’s demands.
Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
Valaris (VAL)
Where the balances sit. Both names ran hard in February and left thin trade behind. Valaris gapped from the low 60s into the mid 80s, skipping 65 to 78. Transocean covered 4.60 to 6.00 in a week with almost nothing in the middle.
July is where the market went back and filled it. Valaris balanced 72.50 to 80.50. Transocean balanced 4.85 to 5.55. Both sit inside their own February hole.
That is the difference between a base and a pause. Five weeks of two sided trade in a zone the market had skipped means value got built where none existed. Everyone who transacted there now has a reference to defend.
Transocean (RIG)
The excess day. Valaris ran two to three point days inside the balance and produced closer to five on the way out. Transocean roughly doubled its normal. Price had to travel to advertise because the sellers who showed up for five weeks were not there anymore. A slow grind out means the seller is still engaged. A wide range day with excess means he stepped away.
Plurality. One name doing this is a story about one company. Two names, same subsector, same balance duration, same week, is the market repricing offshore drilling. Both land on earnings, so this is not one buyer rotating. It is two independent auctions answering the same question the same way. Which also tells you the tell: if it is real they hold together, if it is coincidence they diverge.
Validation. The excess day is finished business, not an entry. Make the market violate today's high first. Above it, the auction is still hunting sellers higher and the departure is accepted. Rotate back toward the balance top instead and it is being rejected. Watch time spent back inside and how fast it gets there.
The balance top is the line. Hold above it and five weeks of value is support. Re enter and stay and the whole move was a failed advertisement.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here
The ES traded in a 7763.00 to 7796.25 Globex trading range, with 165k contracts traded, and opened Monday’s regular session at 7773.00, down 5.25 points or -0.07%.
After the open, the ES rallied up to 7783.50, sold off 12.50 points to 7771.00, rallied up to 7779.25 at 9:45, and traded back down to the 7771.00 low. It then rallied 27 points up to 7798.00 at 10:45, sold off 20 points down to 7778.00 at 11:30, and rallied 13.25 points up to a lower high at 7791.25. It then sold off 30 points down to 7761.25 at 12:30 and made two higher lows at 7765.75 at 12:45 after Trump posted this on Truth Social:
With respect to the Iran negotiations, Iran should be responsible for the damages and deaths caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza.
After the low, the ES rallied 8 points up to 7769.25, rallied 12 points up to the VWAP at 7781.25 at 3:25, and traded 7778.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.1 billion for sale. It sold off down to 7770.25 at 3:59—
IMPRO: Dboy: [3:58:42 PM]: here comes the 4:00 U-turn
—and traded 7778.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES sold off down to 7770.00 and settled at 7776.75, down 3 points or -0.04%; the NQ settled at 29,737.00, down 97.75 points or -0.33%; the YM settled at 54,063, down 89 points or -0.16%; and the RTY settled at 3025.00, down 16.6 points or -0.55% on the day.
In the end, it was a very low-volume chop, with the bonds down and gold up. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was follow the leader, the NQ. `In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was extremely low; at 3:00, it was only 686k, and total volume was 923k, which is almost hard to believe. The last time it was this low was on New Year’s or July 4th, 2026.
Market-on-Close Recap
MOC Recap: Nasdaq Selling Reversed Into a Late Buy Program
The MOC opened with a sizable $2.2B net sell imbalance. Buy interest totaled $2.5B against $4.6B for sale, producing a -65.2% dollar lean and a -52.2% symbol lean. The dollar reading was close to the -66.0% wholesale threshold, while the symbol count remained rotational. The S&P 500 registered a -66.1% dollar lean, but the real pressure was Nasdaq, where the imbalance reached -$3.0B with a -91.2% dollar lean and -79.2% symbol lean, clearly indicating wholesale selling. NYSE was the counterweight, showing an $865.4M buy imbalance with a more rotational +62.6% dollar lean.
Selling intensified into 15:53, with the overall MOC reaching -$2.5B and the dollar lean falling to -67.3%. Pressure then eased sharply. By 15:56 the imbalance flipped to +$371.0M, although the +53.1% lean remained rotational. At 15:59, buying accelerated to +$1.8B with a +70.3% dollar lean, signaling a genuine late buy program.
Information Technology dominated the early selling at -$2.0B with an -85.4% dollar lean. Communication Services was also heavily offered at -$385.1M with an -88.6% dollar lean and -70.0% symbol lean. Real Estate showed a notable -68.6% symbol lean, while Consumer Discretionary lost $200.7M.
Mega-cap technology supplied most of the individual sell pressure: AVGO $331.9M, AAPL $301.0M, INTC $241.5M, NVDA $223.2M, AMZN $205.9M, META $155.5M, MSFT $153.6M and GOOG $114.8M.
On the buy side, UNH led at $101.0M, followed by JNJ at $77.5M, BKNG at $75.2M, VLO at $64.4M, EMR at $55.9M and PSX at $53.6M. Overall, the MOC transitioned from concentrated Nasdaq and mega-cap technology selling into a strong late-session buy program.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, August 10, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 86 / 85
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 240 / 107
NYSE TRIN: 0.60
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.75
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, August 7, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 67% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 312 / 160
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 669 / 411
NYSE TRIN: 1.18
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.26
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, August 10, 2026
Monday developed as a typical Cycle Day 2, with David setting expectations early for a balanced, rotational session rather than a strong directional trend. The day ultimately rewarded patience, disciplined trade selection, and respect for the PTG framework more than aggressive participation.
Overnight Action
Price held the 7765 Line in the Sand overnight.
The market pushed higher and completed the 7785 target.
Price then retreated back toward the 7775 area ahead of the regular session.
The overnight action gave the room a clear framework and confirmed the value of using predefined PTG levels.
Day-Type Expectations
David identified the session as a Cycle Day 2.
The expectation was for more normal, balanced market rhythms.
Price action ultimately matched that outlook well.
Traders were reminded not to force momentum trades when the market was rotating and lacking strong directional conviction.
Positive Trade Observations
The overnight 7785 target was successfully fulfilled after 7765 held.
The D-Level around 95 was reached during the morning session.
The room continued to focus on the 1SDT pullback as a preferred trade setup.
The session reinforced the benefit of waiting for higher-quality locations rather than trading from the middle of a range.
Trading Lessons
David shared an important W.D. Gann principle: the safest new trade often comes after the first correction to a new swing.
The lesson was to avoid chasing the initial move and instead allow structure to develop.
When price is trapped in the middle of a range, patience is often the better trade.
Balanced days require different expectations than trend days.
Understanding the 89 Signal
The room discussed the 89 indicator as the core signal.
Secondary indicators can provide additional confirmation or support probe trades.
When the 89 begins to flatten, the message is often no trade.
This reinforced an important principle: sometimes the strongest trading decision is choosing not to participate.
PTG Toolbox Discussion
Members discussed using the PTG Toolbox in simulation mode to evaluate strategies and build confidence.
Simulation was highlighted as a useful step before moving into prop or live trading.
Members also shared positive experiences using PTG strategies with Sierra Chart.
The broader message was to focus on process, execution quality, and familiarity with the tools before increasing risk.
Educational Highlights
David spent significant time explaining the relationship between the core and secondary indicators.
Members found the discussion around the 89 signal especially helpful.
The session became as much an educational day as a trading day.
Several members commented positively on the quality of the morning discussion.
Key Takeaways
7765 held and led to the 7785 target.
The D-Level around 95 was reached.
Cycle Day 2 expectations proved accurate.
The 1SDT pullback remained a favored setup.
The 89 signal remains the core directional reference.
A flattening 89 can be a clear signal to stand aside.
Avoid forcing trades in the middle of balanced ranges.
Patience and capital preservation were major wins for the day.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Market Tone
US futures are cautiously constructive ahead of key CPI and PPI data this week.
Gold near $4,400 reflects defensive positioning into inflation risk.
Treasury yields continue to rise while equities remain near record highs, creating a divergence that could be tested by upcoming data.
Asian markets were firmer overnight, supported by improving tech and semiconductor sentiment.
Macro & Geopolitical Risk
Oil is rebounding as hopes for a Hormuz agreement fade.
Iran/Oman negotiations remain stalled, keeping a geopolitical risk premium in crude.
Higher oil prices could pressure transportation, manufacturing and consumer margins.
Additional volatility risks include developments around Iran, Ukraine, Israel, the West Bank and President Trump’s social media posts.
Fed’s Beth Hammack said policy is not meaningfully restrictive, while rising yields continue to tighten financial conditions.
AI & Tech Focus
AI infrastructure remains a major market theme.
Anthropic announced a $9B cloud deal with Riot Platforms.
OpenAI’s $7B employee-share buyback adds to the broader AI capital-spending narrative.
JPMorgan warns the memory-chip shortage could persist for another two years.
Higher infrastructure and component costs could pressure AI hardware suppliers and hyperscalers.
NQ remains especially sensitive to AI-related headlines and moves in yields.
Earnings Focus
SMCI reports after the close and is the key AI-infrastructure earnings event.
Traders will focus on:
AI server demand
Backlog durability
Supply constraints
Pricing power
Forward guidance
Premarket earnings include ARMK, CAH, ESLT, IHG, ONON, SEA and TME.
Wednesday morning earnings include AMCR, SBS and PFGC.
Economic Calendar
8:15am ET: ADP Weekly Employment Change
10:00am ET: Existing Home Sales
Volatility & Positioning
ES volatility has declined for four consecutive sessions.
The ES 5-day average daily range has dropped to 75.0 points, down from 91.75 on Friday.
Volatility is now in the moderate-high range and could continue to contract if ES remains near its all-time high.
Whale bias is leaning bearish into the US open on moderate overnight large-trader volume.
ES Technical Levels
Resistance: 7829/34
Support: 7620/15
Additional Supports: 7449/54, 7313/08, 7127/22
50-day MA: 7550.50 — loose support below
Bottom Line
ES remains in a sideways consolidation near record highs.
The main drivers are inflation data, Treasury yields, oil/geopolitical headlines and AI-infrastructure developments.
A hot inflation print could pressure tech through higher yields, while cooler data could allow AI-related momentum to regain leadership.
