The Bulls Knocked on 7784 Thursday. Can They Kick It In Today?

September 25, 2026

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The ES heads into Friday with a better outside tone, but the bulls still have a level to prove. Yesterday’s cash session rallied from 7725.25 to 7783.50, stopping just half a point short of the 7784.00 BTS bull/bear line we were watching. ES closed the regular session at 7765.50 and slipped to 7759.50 during the cleanup hour. That leaves Thursday’s high as the first test of whether the recovery has more room to run.

Oil and Treasury yields are giving equities some help this morning. At 7:55 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.4%, the 10-year yield was near 5.18%, and crude was pulling back. The relief matters, but yields remain sharply higher for the week, so we will watch whether bonds continue to support the bid after the cash open.

The calendar gives traders two chances to change direction. August durable-goods orders were scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET; the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading arrives at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary sentiment reading was 47.8, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is also scheduled to speak at 2:00 p.m. We want to see how ES and Treasury yields respond to the releases, especially if the first move reverses.

Today’s earnings calendar is light. Earnings Whispers lists three companies before the open and none after the close. Costco’s report from last night may draw more attention: it posted earnings of $6.75 per share, while its shares were modestly lower in premarket trading.


Our approach is to let the opening trade confirm the overnight optimism. If ES holds above yesterday’s 7758.75–7765.50 closing area, we will look for a push through 7772.50 and a test of 7783.50–7784.00. A sustained move above that high, with yields still easing, would strengthen the case for continuation. If ES reaches that area and stalls again, we will respect Thursday’s rejection and avoid chasing the rally.

On the downside, losing 7758.75 puts the cleanup-hour low at 7748.75 and yesterday’s 7729.50 lower-range level back in view. Below there, 7707.25 is Thursday’s overnight low. These are reference levels from yesterday’s trade, not a fresh BTS calculation. Friday’s job is to see which side can hold its ground after the data and the 10:00 a.m. sentiment release.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

Renewed oil and bond volatility spilled over into equity volatility today. The 10-year yield continued its move from yesterday, rising to 5.22% today—the highest reading since July 2007.

Fed funds futures trading suggests a nearly 71% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will lift its key rate once more in October, per the CME FedWatch tool. That compares to a roughly 55% probability just a week ago.

SPX traded within a 74-bps intraday range and closed at 7,704, holding above our Risk Pivot of 7,690. Volatility picked up, with the VIX rising 3% to close at 15.68, and the VVIX rising 2 points to close at 90.57.

A 7K-lot Iron Condor at 7,735/7,740 and 7,620/7,615 provided positive dealer gamma in that zone, driving the mean-reverting price action we observed throughout the session.

Our S&P 500 HIRO indicator registered -$12bn in options delta on the day, mostly driven by 0DTEs (teal line). Although this was a large negative delta reading following yesterday’s -$20bn delta reading, the short-term tenor suggests this flow is tactical in nature rather than driven by longer-dated hedging demand.

S&P 500 Single Stock Equities showed +$2bn in delta on the day, driven by longer-dated call buying. This longer-dated call buying flow (orange line) was concentrated mainly in META, which rose 5% today following yesterday’s “Meta Connect 2026” product launch event.

META pushed through both the 750 Key Gamma Strike and Key Delta Strike today, igniting momentum toward the 800 gamma level, where traders currently hold 108K long call Open Interest.

SPX Fixed Strike Vol rose 1-2 vol points on the day as the market pulled back from record highs. SPX ATM IV for tomorrow is 13.7%, suggesting an 86-bps implied intraday move.

Our Opening Setup winner of the day was in META calls. A 5K-lot block of META October 820 calls stood out in today’s report due to the large premium associated with the trade. As META rallied 5% on the day, these calls gained 65%.

It’s also notable that META ATM Vol has risen above its 30-day range, making options relatively expensive right now. However, we noticed that short-dated fixed strike vol (<=2DTE) dropped 10-15 vol points on the day, likely due to an event vol release. 

META closed at 778 today, gaining 14% this week following the successful launch of its new AI Agent, Muse. Meta’s current market cap is around $2 trillion.

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Market Recap

The ES traded between 7707.25 and 7779.25 during the overnight session. It opened Thursday’s regular session at 7734.25, down 39.50 points, or 0.51%, from Wednesday’s 4:00 p.m. close of 7773.75.

The overnight trade kept the bearish BTS setup in place. ES began Wednesday evening at 7774.75, never reached the 7784.00 bull/bear line, and slid below the 7729.50 lower range target. Selling drove it to 7707.25 during the 5:40 a.m. bar, but the market held well above the next BTS support zone at 7681.50–7678.25. By the cash open, ES had recovered to 7734.25.

Buyers pushed higher after 9:30, lifting ES to 7758.00 by the 10:05 bar. That move reclaimed 7729.50 but fell just short of the 7758.75 resistance level. The advance then faded. At 11:10, ES dipped back below the lower range target to 7725.25, the regular-session low.

The break did not bring another leg down. ES recovered 7729.50 and spent the next hour trading around that level. Then the 12:15 bar delivered the day’s sharpest move, running from 7739.50 to 7778.00. That surge cleared 7758.75 and 7772.50, turning the morning’s failed recovery into a strong midday rally.

ES continued to press higher and reached 7783.50 during the 12:55 bar—just 0.50 points shy of the 7784.00 BTS bull/bear line. Bulls had recovered nearly the entire overnight decline, but they never cleared the pivot. The market rolled over through the early afternoon, falling to 7749.50 during the 2:00 bar before finding buyers again.

Late trade was choppy. ES worked back toward 7772.50, touched that level during the 3:20 bar, and briefly reached 7774.50 in the 3:50 bar. Selling in the final five minutes left the regular-session close at 7765.50. That was 31.25 points above the cash open but 8.25 points below Wednesday’s 4:00 p.m. close.

The full 6:00 p.m.–4:00 p.m. window ranged from 7707.25 to 7783.50, a 76.25-point spread, on approximately 1.63 million contracts. Regular-session volume was approximately 1.32 million contracts.

From a BTS Levels standpoint, 7729.50 was the key recovery level. ES was below it overnight, reclaimed it before the open, tested it again at 11:10, and held it before the midday rally. The rally cleared 7758.75 and 7772.50 but stopped half a point short of 7784.00. That left the bearish bull/bear line intact, even as buyers erased most of the overnight selling. The deeper 7681.50–7678.25 support zone was never tested.

MOC: Big Buy Dollars, Rotational Breadth

The MOC opened with a $4.1 billion net buy imbalance. That was a strong dollar headline, but the symbol count told a more measured story: 365 buys against 322 sells produced a +53.1% symbol lean. By our measure, that is closer to rotation than a wholesale market buy.

The buy imbalance briefly grew to $4.3 billion at 15:52, then began to fade. It stood at $3.4 billion by 15:55, when the symbol lean had flipped to -51.2%. The dollar side was still firmly positive, but more names were leaning toward the sell side. At 15:56, the net buy imbalance dropped to $1.2 billion while the symbol lean reached -57.1%. The auction finished at 16:00 with just $145.0 million of net buying and a -54.9% symbol lean. Buyers retained the dollar edge, but the broad buying seen in the headline never developed across symbols.

The opening buy list was led by NVDA at $597.7 million, followed by MSFT at $277.9 million, AVGO at $264.8 million, AAPL at $251.2 million, and AMZN at $245.7 million. On the sell side, SPCX led at $166.6 million, with GOOG at $80.7 million; GE, SNDK, and HD followed at smaller amounts.

Sector flows show where the concentrated buying sat. Information Technology carried a $3.0 billion net buy imbalance and a +67.1% symbol lean, clearing the +66% threshold for a more wholesale sector buy. Consumer Discretionary added $510.0 million, while Financials added $401.5 million despite a -51.5% symbol lean. Utilities had a $125.1 million net sell imbalance and a -66.7% symbol lean, crossing the wholesale sell threshold. The overall MOC was therefore a large, tech-led buy at the open that narrowed sharply as the close approached

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ES-Z Levels

ES is trading around 7786.25 in the current Globex session, just above the prior session’s high of 7783.50. The bull/bear line is 7758.25. Holding above it keeps the near-term bias bullish, but ES needs to stay above 7783.50 to show that the breakout can hold.

The upper range target is 7814.75. A sustained move through that level puts 7868.00, the next resistance, in view. If ES slips back below 7783.50, watch 7774.75 and 7767.00 for support before the bull/bear line at 7758.25.

A break below 7758.25 would turn the setup bearish and bring the prior low of 7707.25 and today’s lower range target of 7701.75 into focus. Below that, the next marked support is 7648.75.

NQ - Z Levels

For the September 25 NQ chart, the bull/bear line is at 30699.50. NQ is displayed at 30922.00, above that pivot, giving the setup a bullish bias.

The first support is 30827.50. Below it, watch 30780.00 and 30766.75, then the bull/bear line at 30699.50. Holding that area keeps buyers in control; a break below 30699.50 would weaken the setup.

The upper range target is 31084.25. A move through it could bring 31446.50 into view. On a deeper decline, 30370.00 is support just above the lower range target at 30314.7

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, September 24, 2026

  • NYSE Breadth: 36% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 44% Upside Volume

  • Total Breadth: 41% Upside Volume

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 34% Advance

  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 40% Advance

  • Total Advance/Decline: 38% Advance

  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 29 / 437

  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 84 / 481

  • NYSE TRIN: 0.94

  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.87

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, September 18, 2026

  • NYSE Breadth: 39% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume

  • Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 29% Advance

  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 38% Advance

  • Total Advance/Decline: 35% Advance

  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 115 / 554

  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 255 / 803

  • NYSE TRIN: 0.63

  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.50

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, September 24, 2026

Thursday’s session delivered a strong example of the PTG Roadmap at work, with the overnight downside objective reached first and the market later reversing into a steady repair phase. Traders had several opportunities throughout the day, while the biggest themes were staying flexible, respecting key levels, and letting repeatable setups add up brick by brick.

Overnight setup

  • David’s prior-day read played out cleanly as the Cycle Day 1 decline carried additional downside into Cycle Day 2.

  • The overnight spillover fulfilled the CD2 Violation Level at 7713.43, validating the roadmap laid out the previous afternoon.

  • Responsive buyers emerged from the lows and pushed price back toward the 7736 area.

  • David characterized the bulls as being in defensive mode, with significant repair work needed before a sustainable rally could develop.

Morning session

  • The morning provided several solid trading opportunities as volatility remained elevated.

  • Traders focused on BLT setups, pullbacks, pivots, HVNs, and the room’s established Roadmap rather than attempting to predict every market move.

  • A particularly nice sequence was reported by slatitude39: a BLT short from 7751.50, followed by a first-pullback entry at 7747.25 that was covered at 7739.25.

  • The room continued emphasizing the value of taking repeatable setups and accumulating gains “brick by brick.”

Trading psychology lesson

  • One of the strongest lessons came from slatitude39, who recognized that a bearish bias had caused him to overlook potential long setups around the 7739–7741 area.

  • The takeaway was to remain objective rather than allowing an existing directional opinion to dictate the next trade.

  • David reinforced the same principle later in the morning with a simple instruction: “Stay flexible.”

  • Volatile sessions can offer opportunities in both directions. The job is to recognize the setup being presented rather than force price action to conform to a predetermined bias.

Midday consolidation

  • By the lunch break, David noted that the morning had delivered some decent opportunities and price had settled into consolidation around 7735.

  • The key technical issue remained whether bulls could reclaim the previously lost prior-day low.

  • That level became important because reclaiming and converting it would open the door to the Prior Close as the next objective.

  • Traders remained patient through the consolidation rather than treating every small move as a new directional signal.

Afternoon roadmap delivers

  • The afternoon became the strongest validation of the day’s Roadmap.

  • Bulls eventually accomplished the important repair objective by clearing the Prior Low.

  • David had specifically explained that reclaiming and converting the Prior Low would target the Prior Close.

  • At 2:39 PM, that target was fulfilled: “BINGO! Prior Close target fulfilled.”

  • With that objective achieved, David noted that bulls retained ball control and continued repairing the technical damage created by the previous decline.

Into the close

  • A $2.5 billion MOC buy imbalance appeared late in the session, which David characterized as “No Big Deal.”

  • Price was positioned to finish near the previous day’s close, completing a substantial recovery from the overnight violation-level test.

  • The session therefore traveled from an overnight extension of the prior decline, through responsive buying and consolidation, and ultimately into a bullish repair that reached the Prior Close objective.

Positive trades and takeaways

  • The CD2 Violation Level at 7713.43 was fulfilled overnight, confirming the anticipated spillover scenario.

  • The morning produced actionable BLT and pullback opportunities, including the reported 7751.50 short and 7747.25-to-7739.25 pullback trade.

  • The Prior Low provided the critical afternoon decision point. Once reclaimed and converted, the Roadmap correctly identified the Prior Close as the next objective, and that target was fulfilled.

  • The biggest lesson was flexibility. Bearish conditions overnight did not mean traders should remain permanently bearish once price began repairing.

  • Objectivity, patience, and reliance on predetermined levels helped traders navigate an unusually volatile session.

  • The room’s “brick by brick” theme fit the day well: focus on repeatable setups, take what the market offers, and allow smaller positive trades to accumulate rather than forcing a home-run trade.

DTG Room Preview – For Friday, September 25, 2026

Macro & Market Drivers

  • US stock futures are little changed as the global bond sell-off keeps yields elevated and financial conditions tight. Bonds remain the primary driver for the indexes, with choppy trade likely until Treasury volatility settles.

  • Markets are positioning ahead of the U.S.–China summit, with trade, AI competition, and currency policy among the potential catalysts.

  • Oil remains volatile amid Houthi-related concerns and rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Energy-driven inflation risk continues to support rate-hike speculation, making crude an important intraday influence on the indexes.

  • The dollar remains near a two-month high despite Warren Buffett raising concerns about its longer-term outlook. Dollar strength, combined with this week’s firm PMI data, continues to tighten financial conditions.

Tech & AI

  • Index concentration remains extreme, with NVDA and AAPL carrying an unusually large share of S&P 500 performance. That concentration increases both upside potential and downside risk for ES and NQ.

  • Meta continues to surge, putting a $2 trillion market cap within reach and reinforcing megacap leadership.

  • AI infrastructure spending remains a major structural tailwind after Anthropic announced a $12 billion computing deal with Akamai.

  • AI, cloud, networking, and semiconductor names remain key areas to watch as corporate headlines continue to drive sharp moves.

Today’s Catalysts

  • 8:30 AM ET — Durable Goods Orders

  • 9:20 AM ET — Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks

  • 10:00 AM ET — UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

  • 2:00 PM ET — Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks

  • No corporate earnings of interest today.

Volatility & Risk

  • Volatility eased slightly Thursday but remains elevated on increased September volume.

  • ES 5-day average daily range fell to 79.50 points from 82.25 on Wednesday.

  • Geopolitical developments involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel, the West Bank, and President Trump’s social media posts remain potential volatility events.

  • Whale bias is slightly bearish into the US open on light overnight large-trader volume.

ES Levels

  • The former short-term downtrend channel top at 7745/40 held as resistance Thursday morning before ES reclaimed it in the afternoon. That zone now becomes important support for today.

  • The 50-day moving average near 7721 also held as support and remains a looser downside reference.

  • A downtrend line at 7835/30 is the first major resistance area overhead.

Key Technical Levels

  • Resistance: 7835/30, 7975/80

  • Support: 7745/40, 7620/25, 7510/05, 7407/12

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!

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