The Buck Stops Here...

September 09, 2026

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Do you know what Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have in common? They both thought they could topple a country in two weeks. For Putin, it's been 54 1/2 months, and while it's not that long for Trump, it's been roughly 6 1/2 months. What else do they have in common? They are both looking for a way out. Regardless of what anyone thinks, neither can fully win the war.

I don't consider myself a war expert, but I do think I have to be. I said after the first two weeks that Trump didn't have an exit strategy, and if there is anything that's apparent, neither does Putin. Ukraine is a model for how future wars will be played out: the larger country with a huge military cannot knock out the smaller country. Sure, aircraft carriers and air attacks can do immense damage, but drones and long-range missiles have no troops on the battleground.

I said it before, and I'll say it again: Iran is not giving up. It's quite the opposite. They are gearing up, trying to attack U.S. ships with hypersonic ballistic missiles, urging the Houthi rebels to attack Saudi Arabia with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones, and hitting multiple energy targets, including the facilities of the world's largest oil company.

The plan? To inflict damage on Aramco, the state-owned national oil company of Saudi Arabia that produces 10 million barrels of oil per day, apply pressure on the second critical oil route, disrupt shipping and transportation, and push oil prices higher just before the U.S. 2026 midterm elections and at a very vulnerable moment for the global energy markets.

The war may have an economic stranglehold on Iran, but that doesn't mean they are throwing in the towel. They know further oil supply disruptions are one of their only alternatives. The EIA says that 20% of the world's oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war and estimates that just 4.9 million barrels of oil and petroleum liquids moved through Hormuz per day in the second quarter of 2026, down from 21.6 million barrels per day before the conflict. Meanwhile, an average of 8.1 million barrels a day moved through the Bab el-Mandeb as Saudi Arabia redirected more crude to bypass Hormuz.

It's not a question if the Houthis are going to up their game or not; they already have. Can this affect American consumers? The answer to that is a big fat yes. I said a few weeks ago that the real move higher in energy prices is coming, and I still feel this way.

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)

The ES traded in a 7725.75 to 7687.50 trading range with 355k contracts traded and opened Tuesday's regular session at 7711.25, down 2.75 points, or -0.04%.

After the open, the ES traded 7717.75, sold off 29.50 points down to 7688.25 at 9:51, rallied 13.00 points up to a lower high at 7701.25 at 9:57, and sold off 21.25 points down to a 7680.00 double-bottom at 10:15. It did a slow sideways to up back and fill up to 7704.00 at 11:15, sold off 18.25 points down to 7685.75 at 12:45, rallied 16.00 points up to 7701.75 at 1:00, and back and filled above the VWAP until 2:45. The ES sold off 25.00 points down to 7676.75 after several explosions were heard around Kharg Island at 2:45. It rallied 15.50 points up to 7692.25 at 3:35, traded 7686.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.1 billion to sell, traded down to 7672.25, and traded 7681.00 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7683.00 and settled at 7678.25, down 43.75 points or -0.57%, the NQ settled at 29,525.75, down 39.50 points or -0.13%, the YM settled at 52,808, down 623 points or -1.18%, and the RTY settled at 2962.20, up 14.40 points or +0.49% on the day.

In the end, there were some headlines, but overall it was a slow, choppy day of rips and dips. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, most of the damage was done on Globex, and every rally was sold. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.469 million contracts traded.

The surge in crude oil is making it more difficult for investors to look past the US/Iran war that seems to have no end in sight, especially when you look at energy prices. Yesterday, Brent crude closed up 35% from its summer lows and briefly pushed above $99 a barrel, its highest level since July, before pulling back from the session high. As I mentioned in yesterday's OP, gas prices jumped over the Labor Day holiday. The PitBull said gas prices always rise over the holiday, and I don't disagree, but the rebound in oil prices was already feeding through to gasoline prices in the U.S., which has weighed heavily on consumer discretionary and industrial shares. Companies are also feeling pressure from higher energy and input costs. These higher prices have been adding to inflation concerns, and have helped push Treasury yields higher and created another headwind for equities. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.805% on Tuesday, marking its highest closing level since October 2023.

****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings

We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos

S&P 500 (ES)

****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings

We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos

📊 CYCLE DAY 3 — RESPECT THE ODDS

The Bulls enter Cycle Day 3 with one job:

🎯 Hold the Line. Reclaim the Cycle Day 1 Low (7703.50). Complete the Mission.

The 92.64% Positive Three-Day Cycle statistic provides the historical backdrop.

Probability…

Not prophecy.

The statistic gives us the directional edge.

Price still has to prove it.

🟢 BULL SCRIPT

Acceptance Above 7675 ±5

 

Bull Roadmap

⬆️ 7690 — Initial Objective

⬆️ 7703.50 — Cycle Day 1 Low

⬆️ 7715 — High Volume Edge (HVE)

A clean Clear & Convert above 7725 opens the runway toward the 7733 D-Level.

Acceptance above 7765?

Then the Bulls haven’t merely completed the mission…

They’ve earned permission to go exploring.

🔴 BEAR SCRIPT

Acceptance Below 7675 ±5

 

Bear Roadmap

⬇️ 7665 — First Downside Objective

⬇️ 7655 — Secondary Objective

⬇️ 7650 — Lower Objective

⬇️ Below 7618 — Potential Long Liquidation / Range Expansion

Failure to reclaim CD1 Low following a breakdown would increase the probability that trapped longs begin heading toward the same exit door.

And as usual…

That door isn’t nearly as wide as everyone thinks it is.

⚔️ PTG EXECUTION PROTOCOL

Take only Triple-A setups.

Manage the $risk.

ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in place on the exchange.

No chasing.

No predicting.

No heroic attempts at catching falling knives.

⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

   ES

MOC Recap: Wholesale Selling Sweeps Every Major Sector

The MOC opened with a $1.5 billion sell imbalance, made up of $2.4 billion to buy against $4.4 billion to sell. Both measurements showed broad participation, with a -64.4% dollar lean and a -60.9% symbol lean. Selling intensified steadily, reaching $3.2 billion at 3:54 before peaking at a massive $4.5 billion for sale at 3:55, when sell orders expanded to $6.3 billion.

The imbalance contracted sharply to $1.4 billion at 3:56, but it remained negative through the bell. At 4:00, the live market summary showed $1.5 billion for sale, with $321.6 million to buy against $1.8 billion to sell. The final -85.0% dollar lean and -80.4% symbol lean confirmed a wholesale market sell program rather than normal rotational activity. There were 505 stocks for sale against only 123 to buy.

The selling was broad across every major market. The S&P 500 carried the largest imbalance at $1.3 billion for sale, with wholesale leans of -85.5% by dollars and -79.4% by symbols. The NYSE produced $1.0 billion for sale with -83.9% and -82.5% leans. Nasdaq finished $479.8 million for sale with a very strong -87.8% dollar lean, although its -62.9% symbol lean showed slightly narrower participation.

Every sector finished negative. Technology led the selling at $398.1 million, followed by health care at $200.9 million, financials at $197.5 million, and industrials at $134.6 million. All sector dollar leans exceeded -66.0%, while energy reached -98.5%, real estate -96.1%, consumer staples -94.2%, and materials -92.2%.

NVDA topped the sell list at $92.8 million, followed by MSFT at $88.5 million, AAPL at $68.1 million, AMD at $47.8 million, and AMGN at $45.9 million. Buying was limited and concentrated in FICO at $25.4 million, GS at $24.2 million, META at $19.3 million, INTC at $16.4 million, and TRU at $14.9 million. The close reflected decisive institutional distribution across indexes, sectors, and individual stocks.

Daily Market Recap

For Tuesday, September 8, 2026

  • NYSE Breadth: 39% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume

  • Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 35% Advance

  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 37% Advance

  • Total Advance/Decline: 37% Advance

  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 52 / 99

  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 92 / 193

  • NYSE TRIN: 0.85

  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.47

Weekly Breadth Data

For the week ending Friday, September 4, 2026

  • NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume

  • Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume

  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 43% Advance

  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 49% Advance

  • Total Advance/Decline: 47% Advance

  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 152 / 308

  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 313 / 545

  • NYSE TRIN: 0.76

  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.74

ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Market Tone

  • US equity futures are mixed this morning, with NQ showing relative strength while ES and YM remain more cautious.

  • The broader setup remains choppy as traders balance renewed trade tensions, debt and consumer concerns against continued strength in the AI and technology theme.

  • Volatility is steady, but headline risk remains elevated.

Macro & Trade

  • Trade tensions with Canada remain in focus, adding another potential volatility catalyst for cyclicals and the broader market.

  • US debt sustainability is also drawing attention, with concerns around structural deficits and rising interest expense offset by arguments that stronger economic growth could help manage the debt burden.

  • Consumer confidence remains a concern as households show increasing anxiety around personal finances and job security.

  • These themes could keep ES sensitive to moves in Treasury yields and encourage defensive rotation if sentiment weakens further.

Tech & AI

  • AI remains the primary upside driver for the market, particularly for NQ.

  • PwC projects roughly $31.6T of global AI infrastructure investment through 2050.

  • Qualcomm’s new Amazon partnership could involve as much as $60B in purchases and includes warrants allowing Amazon to acquire roughly $4B of QCOM shares.

  • Watch NVDA, QCOM and AMZN for directional cues across the semiconductor and hyperscale complex.

Apple Event

  • Apple is in focus ahead of its 1:00 pm ET product event.

  • New CEO John Ternus is expected to unveil the company’s first foldable iPhone.

  • A strong reception could help support mega-cap technology sentiment and NQ, while any disappointment could create headline-driven volatility in AAPL and the broader tech complex.

Economic Calendar & Earnings

  • The US economic calendar is light, with ADP Weekly Employment Change due at 8:15am ET.

  • Earnings after the bell include CCO.

  • Thursday after the close: ADBE, CPRT and ORCL.

Volatility & Risk Events

  • The ES 5-day average daily range has increased to 74.75 points from 73.25.

  • Key volatility risks include developments involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel and the West Bank.

  • Treasury or Fed commentary, trade headlines and President Trump social media posts could also move the tape.

ES Technicals

  • Whale bias is bullish into the US open on elevated overnight large-trader volume.

  • ES has moved back toward the middle of its short-term downtrend channel, leaving room for both bulls and bears.

  • The 50-day moving average near 7632 remains an important area of loose support and could come into play today or tomorrow.

Key ES Levels

  • Resistance: 7642–47, 7865–70

  • Support: 7612–15, 7587–92, 7489–94, 7290–95, 7080–85

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!