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- The Bounce Failed. Now Buyers Have to Prove It | September 29 Opening Print
The Bounce Failed. Now Buyers Have to Prove It | September 29 Opening Print
Weak breadth, a late sell imbalance, and a 10 a.m. test for stocks and rates.
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This week is packed with Fed speak (11 appearances in all) and some very big economic reports, including ADP, Q3 GDP, and PCE. On Wednesday, the last trading day of September, we have additional economic data, followed by PMI and ISM on Thursday, the first trading day of October, and the Jobs Report and Factory Orders on Friday.
I don’t think we have to do a big view because we already know what it looks like. The bonds (ZBZ26) traded down to 103-14, lower than where they were during the Credit Crisis in June 2007.
I know politics and trading don’t mix, but I think Trump is screwed. There are only 36 days until the midterm elections, and even if he does get a deal with Iran to halt the war, a sea change has already occurred.
As of now, control of both chambers is highly competitive. Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority, while Cook Political Report has Senate control in toss-up territory, with seven races rated Toss Ups. In the House, Cook’s polling across 37 competitive districts showed Democrats ahead 49% to 47%, and Reuters/Ipsos reported an 8-point Democratic advantage on the congressional generic ballot. The final outcome will depend heavily on a relatively small number of battleground Senate states and House districts.
Only time will tell, but I don’t think it’s looking very good for the Republicans.
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Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
“Get Back”
The Beatles
The Beatles recorded "Get Back" as a call to return to where things belong, and that was the message the market delivered in software on Monday. Both Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) gapped lower and slipped outside of their balance areas, only to be met by buyers who wasted no time sending price back toward familiar territory. When the market rejects a new price this quickly, it's telling us value hasn't changed, and that's a message worth listening to.
CRM
NOW
If this demand continues, both stocks have room to rotate back through their balance areas toward the opposite extreme. A failed breakdown often leads to a move across the entire range, as sellers who pressed below balance are forced to cover and buyers gain confidence that value has been defended. For CRM, that points toward the upper end of balance near 266, and for NOW, toward the 149 area.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here
The ES traded in a 7803.00 to 7757.00 Globex trading range and traded 7772.75 on Monday’s regular session open, down 32 points, or -0.41%.
After the open, the ES traded 7775.25 and sold off 16.50 points to 7758.75. It rallied to two lower highs at 7774.75 at 9:45 and 7773.75 at 10:00 before selling off 47.75 points to a new low at 7726.00 at 10:45.
The ES then rallied 21.25 points to 7747.25 at 11:00 and then sold off 17.00 points to a higher low at 7730.25. From there, it rallied 56.00 points to 7786.25 at 12:25, sold off 31.25 points to 7755.00 at 1:00, rallied 28.50 points to 7783.50, and sold off 24.50 points to 7759.00 at 1:30.
The ES then back-and-filled in a 7-point range before dropping to 7742.00 at 3:47. It traded 7744.00 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $1.2 billion to sell in the Nasdaq, sold off to 7739.25, and traded 7746.50 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded 7749.00 and settled at 7746.75, down 57 points or -0.73%.
In the end, higher crude oil prices and bonds trading below their June 2007 Credit Crisis low weighed on the indices. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was weak. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the high side at 1.693 million contracts traded.
MOC Recap: Sell Program Hits Late, Tech Buying Holds
Monday’s market-on-close opened with a $158.9 million buy imbalance, with $4.0 billion to buy against $3.9 billion to sell. The S&P 500 showed $109.6 million to buy, but the split underneath was striking: Nasdaq had $1.1 billion to buy while the NYSE had $967.6 million to sell.
Buying briefly gained ground. The overall imbalance reached $896.0 million to buy at 3:52, then eased to $214.0 million by 3:54. At 3:55, the sell program landed: the market swung to $2.7 billion to sell as sell indications climbed to $5.0 billion. The imbalance remained above $1.8 billion to sell through 3:58, before shrinking to $511.0 million to sell at the 4:00 p.m. snapshot. The closing dollar lean was −66.8%, a pronounced sell reading, while the −59.4% symbol lean showed broader selling without the same degree of wholesale participation.
The sector board showed the other side of that rotation. Information technology led buying at $1.4 billion net, anchored by AVGO at $519.3 million, AMD at $215.9 million, AAPL at $176.5 million, MU at $135.1 million, and NVDA at $116.9 million. JPM drew $281.7 million to buy.
Selling spread across health care, consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, communication services, and real estate. META led the sell list at $288.7 million, followed by JNJ at $143.6 million, AMZN at $140.4 million, and ORCL at $125.3 million. Energy’s sell list included XOM, CVX, and PSX, each above $93.0 million. The close told a rotational story: strong demand for selected technology names met a late, forceful sell program across much of the rest of the market.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, September 28, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 25% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 33% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 30% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 25% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 29% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 18 / 447
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 67 / 535
NYSE TRIN: 0.97
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.82
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, September 25, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 70 / 575
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 323 / 769
NYSE TRIN: 0.59
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.56
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Tuesday, September 29 — Eastern time.
9:00 a.m. — July S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home-price data. Release calendar.
10:00 a.m. — August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. BLS schedule.
10:00 a.m. — September Consumer Confidence. The Conference Board.
10:30 a.m. — September Texas Retail Outlook Survey. New York Fed calendar.
The simultaneous 10 a.m. releases are the main scheduled morning test. Treat the initial move with care and watch whether rates and breadth confirm it.
Earnings Calendar
Today: Carnival (CCL) — fiscal third-quarter earnings call at 10:00 a.m. ET. Company event page.
Wednesday, September 30: Micron (MU) — fiscal fourth-quarter results; conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Company announcement.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, September 28, 2026
Monday unfolded as a textbook Cycle Day 1 session, with the overnight decline already satisfying key downside projections and the regular session continuing to respect PTG’s pre-identified levels. The day reinforced disciplined execution, patience around known zones, and the value of letting the market confirm the planned scenario rather than forcing trades.
Overnight Setup and Market Context
PTGDavid noted that a new Cycle Day 1 had begun and that the expected overnight decline had already fulfilled lower targets through 7755.
The 7755–7775 area was highlighted early as an important zone because of the heavy traffic seen there late the prior week.
Bulls entered the session in a defensive position and needed to regain control to prevent further downside.
David emphasized flexibility and the PTG “AAA” framework:
Alignment
Assignment
Attack
The broader message was to stay focused on probabilities and execute only when the market aligned with the plan.
Morning Price Action
Early trade developed around the upper zones, where members observed repeated testing and signs of stalling.
A bearish scenario became increasingly relevant as price struggled to maintain higher levels.
PTGDavid defined the key bear case as acceptance below 7790 ±5, with downside objectives at:
7775
7765
7755
He characterized the developing move as a normal Cycle Day 1 decline.
By 10:51 AM, David confirmed that the Average Decline Range Projections had been fulfilled.
This was an important validation of the day’s original roadmap and showed the benefit of entering the session with predefined objectives.
Midday Conditions
The room discussed the behavioral tendencies of the market approaching lunchtime and whether recurring patterns develop during that period.
This reinforced the importance of understanding not only price levels but also time-of-day tendencies.
The midday discussion also focused on chart orientation, methodology, and how different timeframes should be incorporated.
PTGDavid clarified that all timeframes are considered when evaluating the market.
Members were directed toward PTG educational material to deepen their understanding of the methodology.
Market Drivers
A notable macro development occurred when PTGDavid reported a sharp rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.
The room discussed using LiveSquawk and the PTG Feeds tab for more immediate market-moving news.
This was a reminder that technical setups should be viewed alongside rapidly changing macro conditions, particularly when rates are moving aggressively.
Afternoon Development
The afternoon continued to validate the Cycle Day 1 framework rather than producing a major change in character.
At 3:13 PM, PTGDavid described the session as a “Textbook Cycle Day 1” with the Average Decline Projection Targets fulfilled.
Attention then shifted toward 7725, a key pivot level previously discussed as an important reference point on any pullback.
That level continued to hold late in the session.
David noted that bulls ideally wanted price to remain stable within Friday’s range and above the 7748 area.
Key Lessons From the Day
Start with the cycle structure. The Cycle Day 1 expectation provided the framework for anticipating and managing the decline.
Respect predefined targets. The Average Decline Projections were fulfilled, demonstrating the value of having objective destinations before the move develops.
Trade locations matter. Successful room trades came from recognizable areas such as the D Level, MB1, prior-day low, DLMB, and DFD setups.
Allow confirmation before attacking. The AAA approach encourages traders to establish alignment and assignment before executing.
Avoid forcing trades when price is stalled or trapped in heavy-traffic zones.
Monitor multiple timeframes rather than relying on a single chart perspective.
Stay aware of macro catalysts such as Treasury yields, which can accelerate or disrupt otherwise orderly technical moves.
Once projected targets are fulfilled, expectations should adjust rather than assuming the original directional move must continue indefinitely.
Overall Takeaway
The session followed the PTG roadmap particularly well.
The anticipated Cycle Day 1 decline developed and fulfilled its Average Decline Projection Targets.
Several members successfully executed trades around predefined PTG levels and setups.
The strongest lesson was that preparation, patience, and adherence to known levels produced cleaner opportunities than reacting emotionally to each price fluctuation.
By the close, the market had delivered what PTGDavid described as a textbook Cycle Day 1, with attention shifting from downside projection fulfillment toward whether important support and Friday’s range could stabilize price.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Macro Setup
U.S. stock futures are mixed as the bond sell-off keeps yields elevated and financial conditions tight.
Treasury volatility remains a key driver for ES, with choppy trade likely while yields stay under pressure.
Oil is extending gains on Iran-related uncertainty, adding to inflation concerns and keeping rate expectations elevated.
The U.S. dollar remains firm near a two-month high, while gold is near a seven-week low as real yields stay elevated.
AI and Tech
Anthropic’s IPO disclosures highlighted rising compute costs and significant AI-risk warnings, adding a fresh regulatory and reputational overhang to the sector.
OpenAI has reportedly delayed a new model release over safety concerns, further increasing sensitivity to AI-related headlines.
AI infrastructure spending remains aggressive, with major capital continuing to flow into data centers and compute capacity.
Tech leadership remains intact, but NQ is increasingly vulnerable to headline-driven swings.
Today’s Market Focus
The main cross-asset drivers are Treasury yields, crude oil, dollar strength, and AI-sector headlines.
Sector dispersion remains wide, with megacap and AI-related names holding up better while rate-sensitive groups lag.
Elevated cross-asset correlations suggest index futures may remain reactive throughout the session.
Whale bias is bearish into the U.S. open on elevated overnight large-trader volume.
Economic Calendar
9:00 AM ET: HPI and S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI.
10:00 AM ET: CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings.
Fed speakers: Bowman at 11:00 AM, Barr at 12:40 PM, Goolsbee at 1:00 PM, Musalem at 1:30 PM, Williams at 2:00 PM, and Waller at 3:00 PM ET.
Earnings
Premarket: Carnival (CCL).
Wednesday premarket: Jabil (JBL).
Wednesday after the close: Micron Technology (MU).
ES Volatility and Structure
The ES 5-day average daily range increased to 80.0 points from 79.5, keeping volatility elevated.
ES has moved back into the middle of the roughly 7650–7850 range that has contained trade for the past five weeks.
The former short-term downtrend channel near 7825–7835 is the first notable resistance zone.
Bears have room toward the 7635–7640 trendline if downside pressure builds.
The 50-day moving average near 7729 supported ES on Monday and again overnight. It remains loose support but could become resistance if sellers gain control.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7825–7835, then 7980–7985.
Support: 7635–7640, 7485–7490, then 7407–7412.
Risk Watch
Geopolitical headlines involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel, and the West Bank remain potential volatility catalysts.
President Trump’s social-media posts are also being treated as possible intraday market-moving events.
