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The Boat Sailed
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I'm sorry, but this is going to be my last OP for the week as I am heading to Finance26 in Frankfurt, Germany, tomorrow morning. Unlike when I used to write them while traveling in and out of Dubai, I have a lot more responsibilities and timelines to meet on this trip.
After the markets closed, I dug into two topics: 1) how much algorithmic/high-frequency trading, bots, and index-arbitrage programs make up of S&P futures volume, and 2) the Magnificent 7.
We all know tech and AI stocks do not like higher borrowing costs, but I am not sure that mattered very much yesterday.
When you take out the 260,000 ES contracts traded on Globex, total regular-session volume was only 1.03 million contracts. If you subtract 85% of that total, or roughly 875,000 contracts, that leaves only about 155,000 contracts traded by humans. Now, I will be the first to admit that 85% to 90% sounds high, but what does it really matter, even if you bring that number down to 70% or 75%, which I am quite sure is not that low? At 75%, that would be about 772,500 contracts attributed to algorithmic, high-frequency, bot, and index-arbitrage trading, leaving about 257,500 contracts traded by humans.
So the bottom line is simple: humans do not decide the direction; the bots do.
META Goes Ex-Dividend, Leads The Magnificent 7 Higher
I have to be honest, I have not been paying a lot of attention to the Mag 7 or META, but over the last 14 sessions, META has been up 11 sessions and down 3, for a total gain of 168.91 points, or +29.51%.
That said, not all of the Mag 7 have fared as well over the same time frame:
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Weakness in the Chemical Sector
Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) is showing clear signs of weakness after prices broke below the six month balance area that held from March through September. More importantly, the market has since found acceptance below that range, signaling that participants are now comfortable transacting at lower prices. Looking left on the chart, there is a previously established value area from October through December 2025, and prices generally tend to rotate from one value area to the next. A break below the most recent five day value area should set the stage for prices to retest that prior balance area near $60.
DuPont de Nemours (DD)
DuPont de Nemours (DD) is displaying a similar pattern of weakness, breaking below the balance area that has contained prices from late February through early September, roughly between $132 and $152. Prices have since rallied back to test the underside of that range, and a failure to regain acceptance inside the balance area would confirm the breakdown. Looking left, there is a previously established value area from July through October 2025, and the November gap higher left behind a thin, low volume area with little prior trade to offer support. As prices tend to rotate from one value area to the next, a continued move lower should target a retest of that prior balance area near $100.
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The ES traded in a 7731.75 to 7771.25 Globex trading range and opened Monday's regular session at 7760.25, up 48.25 points, or +0.48%.
After the open, the ES traded 7758.25 and rallied 89.00 points up to 7847.25 at 2:50 p.m. Yes, there were some 5- and 10-point pullbacks, but this was a blowout rally. Helping this massive buy program, bonds were up and crude oil was down over $5.00.
Late, the ES pulled back 15.25 points down to 7832.00 and traded 7839.75 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $3 billion to sell, and traded 7833.25 on the 4:00 close.
After 4:00, the ES traded 7828.50 and settled at 7829.25, up 116.75 points, or +1.51%. The NQ settled at 30,781.00, up 863.75 points, or +2.89%; the YM settled at 52,781.00, up 374 points, or +0.72%; and the RTY settled at 2898.80, up 17.30 points, or +0.60% on the day.
In the end, I had a feeling the ES and NQ were going up, but by no means did I think they would go up that much. In terms of the ES and NQ's overall tone, it was what they call a "rolling" buy program. In other words, it was an all-day program. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was low for the size of the move, with only 1.29 million contracts traded.
Perfect Storm
Intel (INTC): Shares jumped 12%.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Shares surged 10%.
AMD Market Cap: AMD reached a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time, becoming the 14th U.S. company to hit the milestone.
Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin extended its rally to roughly $86,000, its highest level since January.
Strategy (MSTR): The bitcoin-focused company jumped 9.5% as crypto-related stocks rallied.
Nasdaq Composite: Rose 2.3%, marking its third straight gain and closing at a record high.
S&P 500: Gained 1.5%.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.7%, gaining 366 points.
Brent Crude Oil: Fell 3.4% to $100.34 a barrel, its fourth consecutive declining session.
Saudi Pipeline: A temporary shutdown of a Saudi Arabian pipeline had previously helped push crude prices toward some of their highest levels of the year.
Strait of Hormuz: Tanker traffic has reportedly picked up somewhat, aided partly by “dark transits,” where vessels turn off tracking signals.
Middle East Diplomacy: The United Nations General Assembly in New York has renewed some hopes for diplomatic progress involving the Middle East.
Ukraine: The U.N. gathering has also increased attention on potential diplomatic efforts surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war.
U.S.–China / AI: There are also hopes for progress toward shared AI guardrails between the U.S. and China.
Geopolitical Risk: Traders remain concerned that renewed hostilities could disrupt shipping routes and fuel refineries.
10-Year Treasury Yield: The yield edged lower to 4.962%.
Federal Reserve: Investors continued pricing in a high likelihood of at least one more Fed rate hike in 2026.
MOC Recap: Nasdaq Sell Program Dominates as NYSE Flows the Other Way
The MOC opened with a heavy sell program showing a $3.1 billion sell imbalance. Sell orders totaled $6.5 billion against $3.4 billion to buy, producing a -65.7% dollar lean. The symbol lean was much more rotational at -50.8%, with 337 stocks to buy versus 348 to sell. That divergence was important: the dollars were aggressively offered, but the broad symbol count was nearly balanced.
The real story was the split between exchanges. The Nasdaq showed a wholesale sell program of $3.9 billion, with an extreme -84.2% dollar lean and -81.0% symbol lean. The S&P 500 was also heavily offered at $3.0 billion to sell with a -66.4% dollar lean, right on the threshold for wholesale selling. Meanwhile, the NYSE went the opposite direction, showing a $782.6 million buy imbalance and +59.3% dollar lean.
Technology drove the selling. Information Technology registered a $1.7 billion sell imbalance with a notable -73.6% dollar lean, while Communication Services was $1.0 billion for sale with an extreme -98.4% lean. Energy also crossed the wholesale threshold at -67.8%. Health Care was the standout buyer at +$231.9 million with a +67.4% lean.
Individual names reflected the tech liquidation. AAPL led the sell side at $512.1 million, followed by NVDA $489.0 million, MSFT $382.2 million, GOOG $342.8 million, AMZN $329.5 million, and MU $320.0 million. Buyers concentrated in WDC $212.4 million, SNDK $180.2 million, V $140.5 million, and STX $127.7 million.
The imbalance transitioned sharply after 3:51. The $3.1 billion sell program shrank to $1.8 billion at 3:52, flipped to a $165.0 million buy at 3:53 and peaked at $759.0 million to buy at 3:58. It briefly returned to $231.0 million for sale at 3:59 before finishing with a modest $204.0 million buy imbalance at 4:00—an aggressive opening sell program that was largely absorbed into the close.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, September 21, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 78% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 27 / 155
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 157 / 190
NYSE TRIN: 0.82
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.44
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, September 18, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 39% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 29% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 35% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 115 / 554
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 255 / 803
NYSE TRIN: 0.63
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.50
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Market Tone
U.S. stock futures are steady as AI leadership continues to offset weakness in cyclicals.
Lower oil prices are helping sentiment by easing inflation concerns and geopolitical risk premiums.
Traders are monitoring potential U.S.–Iran talks, with crude and index futures likely to remain headline-sensitive.
Macro & Labor
Indeed’s CEO warned the U.S. labor market is caught in a “vicious cycle,” with employers reluctant to hire and workers hesitant to change jobs.
Labor-market friction could weigh on wage growth and consumer spending later in the year.
Today’s calendar includes ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8:15am ET and Richmond Fed Manufacturing at 10:00am ET.
Fed speakers include Michelle Bowman at 10:05am ET, Philip Jefferson at 10:20am ET, and Thomas Barkin at 1:00pm ET.
AI, Tech & Crypto
Meta (META) surged more than 10%, reinforcing megacap tech and AI leadership.
Alibaba unveiled a new AI chip aimed at supporting significant future data-center capacity, highlighting intensifying global AI infrastructure competition.
Crypto markets are seeing strong speculative activity, with some tokens posting sharp gains amid expectations for greater U.S. regulatory clarity.
Kairos Power secured up to $100M from Samsung Group for a nuclear reactor project supporting Google, underscoring growing power demand tied to AI workloads.
Consumer & Corporate
The operator of 314 Wendy’s locations filed for bankruptcy, highlighting continued pressure on consumer-facing businesses.
Corporate earnings this morning include AutoZone (AZO).
Wednesday morning earnings include Cintas (CTAS), General Mills (GIS), and Paychex (PAYX).
Volatility & Positioning
ES volatility expanded sharply Monday, with the 5-day average daily range rising to 97 points.
Geopolitical developments involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel, the West Bank, and President Trump’s social-media posts remain potential volatility catalysts.
Whale bias is leaning bearish into the U.S. open, though overnight large-trader volume is lighter than recent sessions.
ES Technicals
ES broke above its short-term downtrend channel and rallied more than 70 points beyond the breakout, flipping the short-term trend bullish.
The former channel top at 7765/62 is now potential support.
The 50-day moving average at 7714.75 has moved further into the background as loose support.
The all-time high at 7906.25 is within reach and could act as resistance on a retest.
Intermediate trend resistance sits near 7965/70.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7906.25, 7965/70
Support: 7765/62, 7543/38, 7407/12
