The Big Screw Job: ES Rips 113, Dumps 150 and Leaves the Bulls Bleeding

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I call this CNW—Crazy, Nuts & Wild: the rally up to 7501.00 on Globex, the 62.50-point selloff to the Globex low at 7438.50, and Trump’s off-the-wall 8:30 a.m. comments about Iran on Fox, saying, “We’re going to beat the fucking shit out of them” / “they’re going to get a beating” / “hitting them hard.”

Then came the 84.50-point selloff to 7371.75 after the open, the late 113-point rally to 7484.75, and the 150.75-point selloff to 7334.00. It was total algo hell.

I said in the lean that there was going to be a big two-way trade and a big pickup in volatility, and, needless to say, that is exactly what we got. I have to be honest: I posted this in the MrTopStep chat just after the ES traded up to 7482.75:

IMPRO:Dboy:[2:55:20 PM]: I think we are at or near the high—no buying up here.

IMPRO:Dboy:[3:00:53 PM]: The big screw job would be to sell off under 7450.

Rich Miller - HandelStats:
Today’s Sheets

After Trump said, “We’re going to beat the fucking shit out of them” / “they’re going to get a beating” / “hitting them hard,” the ES traded in a 7501.00-to-7438.50 Globex range, with 285k contracts traded, and opened the 9:30 ET regular session at 7456.25, down 9.75 points, or 0.13%.

After the open, the ES traded up to 7461.00 and sold off 55 points to 7406.00 at 10:00. It rallied 14.75 points to 7420.75, sold off 27.75 points to 7393.00 at 10:30, and rallied 19 points to 7412.00 at 11:00. It then tanked 40.25 points to 7371.75 at 12:15. It rallied 56.50 points to 7428.25 at 1:23, sold off 20 points to 7408.25, and rallied 43.25 points to 7451.50 after the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady, keeping the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%.

The ES then sold off 32.50 points to 7419.00, rallied 63.75 points to 7482.75 at 2:55, sold off 22.25 points to 7460.50, and shot back up to a lower high at 7482.00 at 3:00. It then sold off 47.75 points to 7434.25 at 3:10, rallied to 7452.50 at 3:15, sold off 56 points to 7396.50 at 3:27, and sold off another 16 points to 7380.50 at 3:34—more than 100 points off the rally high in around 30 minutes.

The ES rallied to 7411.00, sold off to a new low at 7358.00 at 3:48, and rallied to 7375.25 at 3:49. It traded 7373.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.9 billion to sell. It sold off to 7345.75 at 3:59 and traded 7350.25 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES sold off to 7340.75, traded up to 7358.00, and sold off to a new low at 7326.25 (yearly pivot 7324.75) at 4:12 after Meta ($META) reported mixed-to-bad Q2 2026 earnings and the stock dropped hard, while Microsoft ($MSFT) reported good Q4 FY2026 earnings and the stock rose. The ES rallied to 7343.25, sold off to a new low at 7324.00 at 4:28, rallied to 7346.50 at 4:40, and settled at 7,335.25, down 130 points, or 1.74%. The NQU26 settled at 27,259.25, down 662.75 points, or 2.37%; the YMU26 settled at 51,735, down 1,209 points, or 2.28%; and the RTYU26 settled at 2,902.70, down 61.80 points, or 2.08%, on the day.

In the end, it was a total kibosh/meltdown. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it had a big rally but an even larger late-day decline. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was the highest in 32 sessions at 1.945 million contracts.

The late rally looked good until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh started talking about this:

“Two economic developments are worth highlighting. The first is a very notable change since our last meeting 42 days ago: nominal and real yields are materially higher across the Treasury curve. In fact, some of the increases in market interest rates between FOMC meetings are among the most significant in the last two decades, ranking around the top decile or so. But if the Committee didn’t change its policy rate, what happened? In the inter-meeting period, market attention centered on real data and real economic developments. Prices reacted in real time to incoming information, and the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor. Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee—and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit. This is, in my view, a change for the better—and we are just getting started. … We need to observe market reaction to developments, direct and unfiltered.”

MiM

The July 29 MOC opened with a $2.1 billion sell imbalance across all markets. Buy orders totaled $2.5 billion against $4.6 billion to sell, producing a -64.7% dollar lean. However, the symbol count remained slightly buy-oriented at +52.4%, with 360 stocks to buy and 327 to sell. That split made the opening look more rotational than universally bearish.

Under the surface, the Nasdaq was already showing wholesale selling. Its dollar lean was -85.5% and its symbol lean was -73.3%, both well beyond the -66.0% threshold. The S&P 500 carried a $2.0 billion sell imbalance with a -65.5% dollar lean, while its +50.2% symbol reading was nearly perfectly rotational. The NYSE moved the other way, showing a $661.6 million buy imbalance and a +60.2% dollar lean.

The pressure intensified after 15:55. At 15:56, the total imbalance widened sharply to -$4.4 billion as sells surged to $6.0 billion and the dollar lean collapsed to -79.4%. Although the imbalance recovered to -$1.4 billion by 16:00, the final leans remained decisively bearish at -77.7% dollars and -67.9% symbols, confirming a wholesale sell into the close.

Information technology dominated the liquidation with a -$2.1 billion imbalance, a -91.2% dollar lean, and a -61.3% symbol lean. Energy also showed broad selling at -81.8% dollars and -66.7% symbols, while consumer staples reached -68.4%. The strongest buy sectors were real estate at +69.1% and financials at +66.4%. Basic materials printed +100.0%, but that represented only one symbol.

The largest sell imbalances were NVDA, MSFT, DDOG, GOOG, FTNT, AVGO, INTC, GOOGL, AMZN, AMAT, and ADI. Buying was led by META, TSLA, V, CRM, GS, BLK, NSC, NOW, UNH, and GEV. Overall, the close transitioned from mixed rotation into a concentrated, technology-led sell program that broadened materially during the final minutes, with breadth deteriorating into the closing print.

How to read the MiM

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, July 29, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 35% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 30% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 32% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 31% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 30% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 30% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 124 / 92

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 166 / 352

• NYSE TRIN: 0.85

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.99

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, July 24, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 46% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 41% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 34% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 36% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 175 / 212

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 271 / 633

• NYSE TRIN: 0.75

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.59

Today’s Economic Calendar

PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Wednesday was a true Wild Card Day, driven by geopolitical headlines, elevated crude oil prices, the Federal Reserve decision, and aggressive 0DTE activity. ES covered an extraordinary 129-handle range, moving from the lows to the highs and then completing a full reversal back to a new low of day.

Pre-Market Tone

• Early geopolitical headlines created immediate risk-off pressure.

• David described the sharp decline as “Down Goes Frazier.”

• The room expected an unusually active and potentially volatile session.

• Crude oil was up roughly 7%, although the equity market initially showed little reaction.

Primary Trading Framework

David established 7450 ±5 as the key decision zone.

Bull Script — Acceptance Above 7450

• Buyers would remain in control.

• Initial targets:

  • 7475

  • 7485

  • 7495

• Expected conditions:

  • Orderly auction

  • Healthy participation

  • Trend continuation

Bear Script — Acceptance Below 7450

• The market would shift from trend to repair and rotation.

• Initial targets:

  • 7425

  • 7415

  • 7405

• Expected conditions:

  • Two-way trade

  • Inventory correction

  • Balance development

Morning Price Action

• The market initially chopped near the middle of the range.

• Members recognized similarities to the previous session.

• Once price failed to hold above the pivot, the bear script became active.

• The lower targets began to come into play.

• David later identified additional downside targets below 7400:

  • 7377

  • 7362

Positive Trades

• Slatitude captured a short near 7436.25 from the A7 Bear RSPR.

• Bruce bought the D-Level and added at Money Box 1.

• DanV worked D-Level and Money Box longs.

• Slatitude later shorted near 7407.50 using confluence between:

  • The D-Level

  • The A7 Bear RSPR

• David acknowledged the execution with “well played.”

• Bruce reported having a very strong trading day, particularly from the short side.

• David and DanV congratulated Bruce on his performance.

Federal Reserve Reaction

• The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.

• The announcement triggered an explosive rally from the lower portion of the range.

• Once price reclaimed and accepted above 7450, the bull script became active.

• All upper targets were fulfilled:

  • 7475

  • 7485

  • 7495

• The move validated the importance of waiting for acceptance above the pivot.

Afternoon Reversal

• The post-Fed rally failed to hold.

• Price returned to VWAP near 7425.

• The market then continued lower.

• David anticipated a retest of the session lows.

• Price eventually made a new low of day.

• The market completed a full 129-handle round trip from lows to highs and back down.

0DTE and Closing Pressure

• David described the afternoon action as 0DTE “hot money” pumping and dumping the market.

• The initial post-Fed buying was fully reversed.

• Market-on-close selling pressure increased sharply:

  • Initial sell imbalance: approximately $1.9 billion

  • Later sell imbalance: approximately $4.4 billion

• Nasdaq names were particularly weak into the close.

• The late selling helped push the market back through the lows.

Key Lessons

• Trade the script, not the headline.

  • Geopolitical news, crude oil, and Fed commentary created noise.

  • The 7450 pivot remained the clearest guide.

• Acceptance matters more than the first touch.

  • Brief moves above or below a level were less important than sustained trade.

• Fed days can reverse completely.

  • The first move after the announcement was not the final move.

• Confluence improves trade quality.

  • Stronger setups came from combining:

    • D-Levels

    • Money Boxes

    • RSPR signals

    • VWAP

    • Structural targets

• Protect profits during event-driven volatility.

  • A full 129-handle round trip showed how quickly gains could disappear.

• Remain flexible.

  • Both the bear and bull scripts became active at different points in the same session.

Closing Perspective

• The room successfully identified the initial breakdown below 7450.

• Lower repair targets were reached.

• The Fed rally fulfilled the entire upper target zone.

• Price returned to VWAP and later retested the lows.

• Several members executed strong trades using the room’s predefined levels.

• The session rewarded patience, flexibility, and disciplined risk management.

DTG Room Preview – For Thursday, July 30 2026

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!