When the first trading day of May falls on a Friday, historical data suggests a tendency toward positive momentum, often referred to as the "First Day of the Month" effect. This phenomenon is typically driven by automatic reinvestments and new capital inflows at the start of a fresh calendar month. Based on historical S&P 500 performance and the current market setup for Friday, May 1, 2026, here is the statistical outlook:

Historical Performance Summary

The chart below highlights the "First Day of the Month" effect, showing that the Nasdaq typically leads in terms of raw percentage gains, while the S&P 500 shows the highest historical consistency (probability of a green close).

I said I thought the ES was on its way to 7250, and we got it. I also said I was not going to concentrate as much on the headlines and more on the price action. I don't think I have ever seen the markets go up like they are right now, so I asked Claude, "At this rate, how long would it take for the ES to trade 7275, 7300, 7325, 7350, 7375, 7400, 7425, 7450, 7475, and 7500?" And here is what it said:

ES FUTURES — TARGET LEVEL PROJECTIONS
Based on Apr 30, 2026, close: 7,256.75
Avg daily gain (24 sessions, 3/31–4/30): +28.50 pts/session

I want to be very careful with predictions like this, especially after the ES and NQ have rallied so much, so fast. What I think is "everyone" thinks higher, and I don't disagree, but there is a war going on and spiraling debt, and if the bombs start falling again and crude oil jumps sharply, we could see some type of retracement.

Joe Public continues to cheer the market higher and, at least for now, the negatives do not matter. According to FactSet, as of today, over 70% of the large U.S. companies have reported earnings. They estimate that when all of the S&P reports earnings, the index will have gained 19% per share, nearly twice the past decade's average gain, with net profit margins being the highest in 15 years.

I think this comes down to a few things: 1) The U.S. is still number 1 in technology; 2) AI is going to continue to outperform; 3) ETF flows for the first three and a half months of 2026 have already surpassed $500 billion, putting the industry on track for a record-breaking year; and 4) despite all its problems, the U.S. stock market is the best place to park your money.

To further this, here is a link to a Goldman Sachs story from April 29 titled US Stocks Are Forecast to Rise 6% in 2026.

Our lean: If you are shocked by how much the stock market has risen, you are not the only one. As of today, semiconductors account for 16% of the S&P 500. I hate to say the same thing every day, but it's how the ES and NQ are functioning. You can sell the ES on a large gap up or early rallies and buy the pullbacks, or just go with the trend and buy the pullbacks. Remember, it's Friday, and headline risk generally goes up going into the weekend.

Today's ES Claude AI Levels

Check out our Flash May Day special. And we mean flash.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

PM Note

The stock market rallied Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushing to new all-time highs. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Caterpillar (CAT) helped boost investor sentiment. The S&P 500 is now up more than 10% in April, marking its best month since late 2020.

SPX closed at 7209 (+1.02%), finishing above the Call Wall (7200) for the first time. Volatility tumbled to the low end of the past 3 months, as VIX closed at 17 (-10%), and VVIX closed at 94 (-3%).

Intraday price action followed a classic “seek and destroy” dynamic. The 0DTE 99th percentile gamma level formed near the 7,170 strike around 1:00pm ET. As price rallied into that level, SPX HIRO shifted from negative to positive delta, signaling a turn in net options pressure.

Around 1:40pm ET, the 99th percentile gamma level shifted higher to 7,200. Price then continued to track HIRO flows, grinding upward toward that strike into the close. This is consistent with HIRO’s role in measuring cumulative delta from aggressive options flow, where the slope/direction of flows reflects real-time directional pressure.

A sizable 0DTE iron condor (~8k contracts) was established at the 7,240 and 7,010 strikes, helping define the day’s trading range. Notably, a risk reversal structure was also present at the 7,200 strike (call selling / put buying), suggesting bearish positioning at that level. However, that resistance was ultimately breached, with the price closing above 7,200.

Total SPX HIRO flow reached approximately $2.5B, driven by ~$1.5B in put selling and ~$1B in call buying—net supportive for price. On the equities side, HIRO flow was similarly ~$2.5B, led by ~$1.5B in call buying and ~$1B in put selling.

Implied volatility declined sharply across fixed strikes, particularly in the near term, where vols fell 3–6 points on the day. With the bulk of earnings now behind us, event volatility compression added fuel to the upside momentum.

SPX at-the-money implied volatility for next Monday is now ~10%, below the 1-month realized volatility (~12%). It’s also notable that the SPX IVs around the 7,200-7,200 strike are below 10%, due to dealer negative gamma peaks around that zone.

FlowPatrol winner of the day is Caterpillar (CAT), which rose 10% on the day. In Monday’s FlowPatrol, we flagged 1,000x June 640 calls (~$20M premium). These calls increased from $201 to $254 over four sessions (+26%).

Notable flows of the day:

TSM: Heavy call activity, particularly in September 430 calls trading in size relative to existing open interest. FlowPatrol confirmation is needed to determine whether this was opening or closing activity.

INTC and QCOM: Yesterday we highlighted the massive winner from our FlowPatrol report on Monday. Today traders took profit with huge gains, INTC August 65 calls closed with more than 400% gains (premium rose from $22 to $92). Also the QCOM December leap calls closed with more than 100% gains (premium rose from$5-$10).

All TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. VIEW FULL RISK DISCLOSURE https://spotgamma.com/model-faq/disclaimer/

Check out our Flash May Day special. And we mean flash.

ES Levels

The bull/bear line for ES is at 7223.75. This is the key pivot for today’s session. Holding above this level keeps the market in a bullish posture, while losing it would shift momentum back to the downside.

ES is currently trading around 7251.50, holding above the bull/bear line and showing early strength out of the Globex session. As long as price remains above 7223.75, dips are likely to be supported, with buyers targeting a move toward 7253.50 and then 7274.00, which is the upper range target for today. A break and hold above 7274.00 opens the door for an extension toward 7321.50.

On the downside, initial support comes in at 7243.75, followed by the bull/bear line at 7223.75. If price loses this level, expect a rotation lower toward 7199.50 and then 7173.50, which is the lower range target. A break below 7173.50 could accelerate selling pressure toward 7150.00 and 7133.75.

Overall, the market is leaning bullish above 7223.75, but price is approaching near-term resistance at 7253.50. Acceptance above this level is needed to continue the push higher. Failure here could lead to a pullback into the mid-range before the next directional move develops.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for NQ is at 27514.75. This is the key level that will dictate directional bias for today. Holding above this level keeps buyers in control, while losing it would shift momentum back to the downside.

NQ is currently trading around 27563.25, slightly above the bull/bear line, indicating early strength during the Globex session. As long as price holds above 27514.75, look for continuation higher toward 27622.75 and 27774.25, which is the upper range target for today. A sustained move above 27774.25 opens the door for an extension toward 28018.50.

If price fails to hold above 27514.75, expect downside pressure to build. Initial support sits at 27514.75, followed by 27255.50, which is the lower range target. A break below 27255.50 could accelerate selling toward 27163.25 and potentially 27011.25.

On the upside, resistance levels to watch are 27622.75 and 27774.25. If buyers can push through and hold above 27774.25, momentum could expand quickly toward 28018.50. Failure at these resistance levels would likely keep price rotating within the current range.

Overall, the tone is cautiously bullish above 27514.75, but the market is still within a broader range. Traders should remain flexible and react to acceptance above or below the bull/bear line for confirmation.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, April 30, 2026

The day unfolded as a highly structured and well-executed session, with the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) playing out with impressive precision right from the open.

Morning Session: Strong Start with Early Edge

• The day began with an Early DLMB (D-Level Money Box) setup, which quickly proved effective as members reported it “paid.”

• David identified a “trapped long” scenario early, giving traders a clear directional bias.

• The DTS plan hit BOTH downside and upside targets early in the session, reinforcing confidence in the roadmap for the day.

• Key lesson emphasized: adapt to market rhythm — David advised being “passive/aggressive”, meaning patient entries but decisive execution.

Mid-Morning: Clean Trade Management

• The Open Range (OR) trade presented opportunity, including a stop-and-reverse, showing flexibility in execution.

• Trade management was disciplined:

  • Stops moved to break-even appropriately

  • Traders actively engaged with structure and confirmations

• Good awareness of sector rotation (tech to defensive) added useful context for broader market behavior.

Midday: Patience and Context Awareness

• During lunch, the tone shifted to strategic patience.

• David called out a “long lean” driven by end-of-month window dressing, helping traders maintain directional bias even in slower conditions.

Afternoon Session: Textbook Execution

• The afternoon delivered the highlight of the day:

  • Clear Cycle Day 2 upside targets: 7235 to 7245

  • Both targets were cleanly and sequentially hit

• This was a perfect example of trusting the levels and letting the trade develop.

• Momentum built steadily into the close, confirming the earlier bias.

Closing Action: Strong Momentum into the Close

• A $4B MOC buy imbalance fueled a strong finish.

• The market closed with a persistent bid, validating the afternoon long positioning.

• David summed it up best: “Train kept a rolling.”

DTG Room Preview – Friday, May 1, 2026

Macro Focus: Oil prices and corporate earnings driving sentiment; geopolitical tension (U.S.–Iran, Strait of Hormuz) keeping risk elevated

Market Recap: U.S. indexes closed April at record highs, supported by Big Tech strength and AI optimism

Apple: Strong Q2 beat (+3%); iPhone revenue ~$57B (+20% YoY); AI-driven demand boosting Mac sales, supply remains tight

Geopolitics: U.S. maintaining Iranian port blockade; Iran holding Strait of Hormuz closed; standoff persists with rising oil prices; ~60-day War Powers deadline approaching

Earnings Today: AON, CVX, CL, D, XOM, DINO, EL, LIN, LYB, MGA, NWG, NVT, TRP

Monday Earnings: TSN, CAN, ON, PNW

Economic Data:

• 9:45 ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

• 10:00 ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices

Volatility: Elevated; ES 5-day ADR ~72.25 (up from 68.75)

Flow: No clear whale bias; large volume but mixed direction

ES Technicals:

• Broke above 7204/07 trendline resistance → bullish continuation

• Now testing 7273/78 resistance (former channel support)

• New short-term support at 7145/48; prior breakout zone 7204/07 should act as support on pullbacks

• 50-day MA (6861) above 200-day MA (6844) → bullish trend intact

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 7273/78, 7835/40

• Support: 7204/07, 7145/48, 6930/35, 6140/35