Summer Trading at Its Finest

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Our View

You can tell we’re in the thick of summer. The ES opened at 4611.50, rallied to resistance, then trended lower all day until the final 10 minutes of the session where it ripped 17 handles into the close.

That’s summer trading “at its finest.”

The ES was contained to a ~21 points range for the entire session, then it trades almost the entirety of that range in one big 10-minute push. Just a few months ago, it wouldn’t have been odd for us to trade 20 points in a 30 to 60 minute stretch — and do so multiple times a day. Now it takes an entire session.

I will reiterate the two points I made in yesterday’s Lean — 1. being the fact that we’re in an uptrend, but also need some consolidation or a pullback and 2. being the fact that small caps and the Dow have been (and can keep) outperforming.

Speaking on point No. 2, we saw this yesterday as the S&P and Nasdaq were up just 0.15% and 0.21%, while the Dow was up a little more at 0.30%, but the Russell put together a nice 1.09% pop. It’s now on the verge of new 52-week highs.

We’ll get into the seasonality stats here in a minute, but let’s see how this week shapes up with tech earnings still on the docket.