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Strait Talk & Market Chalk
Danny Riley
April 06, 2026
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Our View
I think this is very much a “one day at a time” type market. Yes, the indices have jumped, but the geopolitical picture remains clouded.
The entire picture remains very fluid, and despite Trump trying to get the Iranians to negotiate an end to the war, they are not budging, and the attacks on both sides continue.
Trump issued a stark warning on social media, declaring that Tuesday would be “Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one” in Iran if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“If Iran does not open the strait, you’ll be living in Hell,” he added in the post.
Meanwhile, mediators from Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have proposed a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to both Iran and the United States. The goal is to create a window for negotiations aimed at ending the war, according to two Mideast officials who spoke to The Associated Press.The proposal was sent late Sunday night to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. As of now, neither side has responded, the officials said. They requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive, private negotiations.This comes amid ongoing airstrikes on Iran that have killed more than 25 people in the latest wave, as reported in the broader Associated Press article.
The ES opened lower and traded down to 6567, rallied up to 6651.25 and is trading 6629.00, up 6.75 points. China and Russia are working to negotiate a peace plan also. I think all said want an a cease fire so negotiations are start but the big question remains, will it happen? To me the gap downs are getting bought that pushes me to think something positive could happen but will it be the end of the war? I’m not sure. The risk seem more on the upside now, can the ES and NQ hold the rallies. Will crude oil fall? You can sell the rips and buy the pull backs or just be patient and buy the pull backs.
Our Lean
You know the game show 'Agree or Disagree'? Well that's where we are at. You can agree that Trump has pulled another TACO and the markets are going to keep up or you can disagree that the war isn't coming to a close and that this is just another dead cat bounce. For me it's a combination of all the above. On one side I understand that at some point the PPT ( Plunge Protection Team) has to come to the rescue and on the other side I understand the if oil prices continue to move higher stock will fall again.
As I have always said, I do not pretend to be smarter than you and while I may have a good feel for the markets I also understand losing streaks and bad calls, it's part of the game and how we survive in the type of trading environment is not always easy. What I do feel strongly about is exactly what I said before Trump took office, as long as he is the president there will be elevated volatility and so far that has been spot on and will continue
If you are looking for a respite do’n’ hold your breath and today end Trump’s deadline.
Market Recap
The ES that weakened late Wednesday made a high at 6632.00 and sold off down to 6503.75 on Globex after President Trump's speech, and opened Thursday's regular session at 6527.75, down 91.75 points or -1.41% on volume of 395k contracts traded.
After the open, the ES traded up to 6538.50, then sold off down to 6514.25 at 9:40. It rallied 130.25 points up to 6644.50 at 10:35, then sold off 46.50 points down to 6598.00 at 10:50. The ES rallied 27.00 points up to 6625.00 at 10:55, then sold off 38.50 points down to 6586.50 at 12:20. It rallied 27.75 points up to 6614.25 at 12:40, pulled back to 6594.50, and then rallied 20.75 points up to 6615.25 at 1:25.
It sold off 25.00 points down to 6590.25 at 1:50, rallied up to 6609.00 at 2:05, then pulled back to 6598.50 at 2:25. The ES rallied up to 6617.50 at 3:10, pulled back to 6605.00 at 3:30, and traded 6610.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalances showed $3.5 billion to buy and went out to $5 billion to buy.
The ES then traded up to 6625.25 at 3:55 and traded 6623.25 on the 4:00 cash close. I kind of saw this coming when I posted this:
(IMPRO: Dboy: [3:37:20 PM]: popper on the close
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 6628.75 and settled at 6622.25, up 4.50 points or +0.04%, up 3 sessions in a row. The NQ settled at 24,218.00, up 23.25 points or +0.10%, the YM settled at 46,732, down 74 points or -0.16%, and the RTY settled at 2544, up 17.30 points or +0.68% on the day.
In the end, 95% of the selling was done on Globex and just after the 9:30 open. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they were bid all day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.894 million contracts traded.
The markets clawed their way back up as oil gave back some of its Globex and early-day gains. I don't think Trump's speech was very specific, yet it provided something for both the bulls and the bears. He continues to say that opening the strait is a problem for other countries, but I don’t understand how that works for the Arab countries that support the US and its military bases after US oil futures saw their largest daily gain since the Covid-19 crash 6 years ago, with oil futures up 66% since the start of the war. This isn't politics for me; it's common sense, which it seems the administration is in short supply of.
Guest Posts
Manny - https://x.com/manny_trends
A Quiet Tape… Until It Isn’t
Hope everyone enjoyed some time off this weekend.
Because the market probably won’t be giving us that same luxury.
This week has the look of one of those tense, headline-driven environments where things feel calm… until they are not.
We have ISM this morning, but the real focus is later today.
Trump speaks at 6 PM ET.
And in this tape, that matters.
Because lately, it does not take much to move this market.
One headline… and suddenly we are 50 handles higher or lower. That’s the tape right now.
So if it feels like a waiting game today, that is probably because it is.
My Approach Right Now
I am a technician.
I use a mix of technical structure and flow data.
Price comes first, always.
But when technicals start to get murky, it is important to pivot.
That is when I lean more on the data.
Right now, since forming a rounded top, ES has been trailing its daily 21 EMA.
That doesn't give us much to work with.
Which means for today, the focus shifts more toward flow for guidance.
What the Book Is Telling Us
The first thing that stands out is positioning.
Open interest is showing clear call dominance above 6511.
That tells you where the pressure sits.
But it also tells you something else.
The market is leaning.
And when the market leans, it becomes sensitive.
Structure First
From a structural standpoint, this is still a “prove it” tape for the bulls.
To maintain any bullish posture, ES needs to hold above 6536.
Lose that, and the door opens to:
• 6511
• 6496
Below that, sellers likely regain control.
That 6496 area is where the tone really shifts.
Above it, we can argue balance.
Below it, the conversation changes.
Intraday Reality: This Looks Like a Range
Despite all the macro noise, the book is not calling for a big move during regular hours.
In fact, it is suggesting the opposite.
A sideways, rotational session.
Which makes sense.
Because the real catalysts are sitting after the close.
So what does that mean for today?
It means we trade levels.
Key Levels for Today (ES)
Support:
• 6546
• 6511–6536 (critical support zone)
Resistance:
• 6566 (GEX resistance)
• 6586 (squeeze trigger / call wall)
• 6611 (next upside magnet)
The Inflection Points
This is where the trade lives today.
Below 6546, DEX is suggesting weakness.
Break it, and we likely rotate toward 6506.
Above 6566, we start to open up upside.
If price can sustain above that level, we likely see a push toward 6611.
But the key level to watch is 6586.
That is your squeeze level.
Break and hold above that, and the market can accelerate quickly.
What Caught My Attention
One thing that stood out was the move in DIX.
A jump from 39% to 50%.
That is not noise.
That is liquidity being added back into the system.
Translation?
Someone bigger is active again.
Now, does that mean straight up?
No.
But it does mean you need to respect the possibility of support showing up when it is least expected.
The Bigger Picture
The overall read here is simple.
This is not a clean trend environment.
This is a range-bound, positioning-driven tape with catalysts sitting just outside of regular hours.
Which usually means:
• Chop during the day
• Movement after hours
• And traders getting frustrated in between
We have all seen that movie before.
The Bottom Line
Today is about discipline.
The market is giving you a range.
Respect it.
6511–6536 is your line in the sand.
6566–6586 is your upside test zone.
Everything in between?
Noise.
And in this type of tape, chasing noise is expensive.
So stay patient.
Because if nothing happens during the day…
There is a good chance something happens tonight.
If this bigger picture is the map, my daily setups are the execution plan. I post them each morning on my X feed, @manny_trends, where I share the levels and structure I am watching for the day ahead. Members of IMPRO are often the beneficiaries of that work.
Manny Payano
@manny_trends
MiM
The MOC session opened with an aggressive buy imbalance that immediately set the tone for a demand-driven close. At 15:51, total imbalance surged to roughly $4.6B with buy-side flow exceeding $5.9B, producing a strong +82% lean. This was not rotational activity—it was decisive institutional buying, particularly as the NASDAQ printed an extreme +97% lean, clearly signaling program-driven accumulation rather than passive rebalancing.
As the session progressed, the imbalance steadily decayed but remained firmly bid through 15:55, where total imbalance still held above $3.1B with a +76% lean. This persistence confirms sustained buy programs rather than a one-minute spike. However, from 15:56–15:59, the tape began to transition. Buy pressure faded sharply while sell imbalances increased, compressing the net imbalance down toward $335M and eventually flipping negative into the close (-$38M). This late reversal reflects closing supply stepping in—likely profit taking or offsetting flows after the earlier institutional accumulation.
Sector-wise, the market showed broad-based buying. Technology dominated with $2.4B total and a +93% lean, reinforcing that large-cap growth names were the primary drivers. Communication Services (+98%), Energy (+91%), and Financials (+84%) also exhibited strong directional buying, indicating cross-sector demand rather than narrow leadership. In contrast, Industrials (-50%) and Basic Materials (-54%) were notable outliers, showing true sell-side control and acting as liquidity sources.
On the single-name level, the strongest buy imbalances were concentrated in mega-cap tech: AAPL ($587M), TSLA ($465M), NVDA ($450M), and AVGO/MU—confirming semiconductor and AI-related flows. These are clear examples of >66% lean behavior, representing wholesale buying. Conversely, notable sells included NSC, UNH, and NEE, suggesting defensive rotation out of certain industrial and healthcare names.
Overall, this MOC profile reflects a strong institutional buy program early, broad sector participation led by tech, and a late-session unwind that shifted the imbalance toward neutral/negative into the close.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for April 6, 2026
SP: 38.48
NQ: 167.49
Dow: 208.92
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Thursday, April 2, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 43 / 89
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 86 / 184
• NYSE TRIN: 0.93
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.73
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending April 2, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 75% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 73% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 74% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 151 / 305
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 191 / 734
• NYSE TRIN: 2.00
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.53
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Room Summaries:
DTG Room Preview – Monday, April 6, 2026
Macro focus: Iran conflict, rising oil prices, inflation, and tariff refund developments are driving sentiment.
Inflation watch: Gasoline prices have surged ~$1, likely pushing March CPI higher (core +0.3% m/m expected). This could mark the biggest inflation uptick since 2022.
Fed outlook: Strong labor data + rising energy costs reinforce a no-rate-cut path near term.
Geopolitics: իրավիճo escalating—Trump threatening infrastructure strikes if Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though negotiations may be underway. Oil supply concerns remain even with OPEC+ output increases due to damaged assets.
Tariffs: Administration signaling compliance with Supreme Court ruling; refunds coming via a ~45-day, 4-step process. Potentially significant payouts to importers.
Today’s data: ISM Services PMI (10:00 ET). Otherwise quiet.
Market conditions:
Volatility elevated (ES 5-day ADR: 153)
No strong overnight positioning (light/mixed flow)
ES Technicals:
Resistance: 6630/27 → 6670/65 (key breakout zone for bulls)
Support: 6279/74
Downtrend intact unless bulls reclaim both resistance levels
200-day MA (6781) remains well above; not in play near term
Bottom line: Macro + geopolitics remain in control. Bulls need a clean break above 6670s to shift momentum; otherwise, downside structure still dominates.
