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Stay calm and wait to buy the pullbacks
Danny Riley
June 24, 2025
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Our View
The ES sold off down to 5959.00 on Globex, made a high of 6039.25, and traded 6025.00 on the 9:30 regular session open. It fell to 6010.50 at 9:35, then rallied up to 6058.25 by 10:20, sold off 65 points down to 5993, and rallied again to 6069.75. The only pullback during that rally was down to the 6056 level before it ripped to a new high at 6070.50 just after 3:00.
As the MIM showed $204 million to buy, the ES pulled back slightly, then traded 6076.50 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 6077.50, up 1.01% on the day, and up around 115 points from Sunday night’s low.
In the end, the headline low came in at 5950 on Sunday night right after the 5:00 ET Globex open. In terms of the ES's overall tone, the biggest pullback after the early low was only 14 points late in the day. In terms of overall trade, total volume was on the high side at 1.86 million contracts traded.
I have to admit it, I sold the ES and NQ on the open and got out with a decent profit. I saw the low and all the higher lows, and I fought it all day. I haven't been trading well lately, but I really thought you could sell the big rips. Instead, there was a big program that the algos locked onto, and it was up, up, up and away.
I kept looking for ‘positive’ news, but none of it was good. There was even a warning of Iranian retaliation against a U.S. attack—“most probably” hours away—reported by Amwaj at 10:25. That’s when the ES started to weaken. At 12:30, Iran launched missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The ES dropped briefly but then rallied for the rest of the day.
I can’t be the only one not getting this, but just as Globex was opening, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran via a post on Truth Social. The announcement stated that the ceasefire would begin in about six hours (around midnight ET), with Iran starting first, followed by Israel 12 hours later, and an official end to the conflict after 24 hours.
So this brings me to where I’m going: Trump was warned by Iran that an attack was coming, and figures that after that, there will be a ceasefire. Everyone gets long (his team and family), and then he makes the announcement. Every one of Trump’s kids will be billionaires by the time he’s out of office.
Oil rallied 6% Sunday night and then retreated 7.2% after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.321%, Gold closed up 0.30% at $3,395.00, and Bitcoin closed at $102,326, up 1.30%.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The overnight Globex session began with ES trading down to a premarket low of 6002.50 at 7:45 AM, reflecting early weakness. From there, buyers stepped in and lifted prices steadily into the regular session open, with ES opening at 6025.00. The early regular session saw a continuation higher, culminating in a morning high of 6058.25 at 10:20 AM. This represented a 55.75-point rise (+0.93%) off the premarket low.
Selling pressure re-emerged mid-morning, leading to a pullback to 6039.25 by 10:55 AM, a 19-point dip (-0.31%) off the session high. A brief recovery attempt lifted ES to a lower high of 6052.00 at 11:15 AM, before sellers took control into midday. The market declined sharply to an intraday low of 5993.25 at 12:35 PM, shedding 58.75 points (-0.97%) from the earlier high.
From that midday low, ES launched a strong afternoon recovery. Bulls drove the index up 76 points (+1.28%) to a new high of 6069.75 by 1:35 PM. A modest retracement followed, pulling back to 6055.75 at 2:50 PM. The final hour saw steady buying, with ES breaking out to a fresh high into the close, printing 6081.50 at the 4:00 PM cash close and settling at 6077.50.
From a session-to-session perspective, ES closed the regular session at 6076.75, a 60.75-point gain (+1.00%) from the prior day’s cash close. The open-to-close change during regular hours was +51.75 points (+0.86%).
Market Tone & Notable Factors
The tone was bullish throughout the day, with the market shaking off early weakness and making higher highs through the afternoon. The strong afternoon recovery from the midday low was decisive, aided by solid buying volume. Total volume was robust, with over 1.29 million contracts traded across all sessions ESU), and 1.06 million during regular hours.
The Market-on-Close imbalance data showed a total of $204M to buy, with 58.5% of dollar flow favoring the buy side. However, the symbol imbalance was at -51.0%, skewed toward sell pressure. This mixed signal suggested some rotation beneath the surface, though the modest dollar imbalance didn’t significantly impact price action into the close.
Overall, the session was characterized by strong dip-buying and upward momentum into the final bell. With a 113.50-point full-session gain (+1.90%), ES ended the day on firm footing, closing near the highs, signaling bullish sentiment heading into Wednesday's trade.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for June 24, 2025:
SP: 51.89
NQ: 219.34
Dow: 313.27
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, June 23, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 62 / 49
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 143 / 139
NYSE TRIN: 1.37
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.78
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 20, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 137 / 106
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 327 / 266
NYSE TRIN: 1.01
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, June 23, 2025
Monday's trading session was driven by a mix of geopolitical headlines and post-OPEX market dynamics. The room focused on structured trading strategies amidst volatility caused by Middle East tensions and options market positioning. David Dube (PTGDavid) guided the room with clarity and foresight, with several strong setups unfolding throughout the day.
Morning Session Highlights:
The market opened within the D-Level Money Box, where smart buyers stepped in to scoop up panic sellers—a textbook BTFD scenario.
Both NQ and ES Open Range Long Targets were achieved, providing early confirmation of upward momentum.
The session traded within a clearly defined sandbox (6045–6055), with price action revolving around VWAP and prior key levels.
Market Analysis:
David discussed the effects of JPM's 5,905 collar providing gamma support, highlighting an underlying bid into dips.
A pattern of two-way consolidation developed mid-morning, with responsive buying reactivating near VWAP levels.
Notable observation: "FOMO" and fast rotations required disciplined entries and exits.
Afternoon Session & Geopolitical Volatility:
As forecasted, afternoon weakness appeared, exacerbated by breaking news of Iranian missile activity targeting U.S. bases.
Price action briefly spiked on this news but reversed sharply once it was reported all missiles were intercepted and no casualties occurred.
David framed this well with the quote: "Sell the Missile Launch, Buy the Interception"—a key lesson in reaction-based trading vs. panic.
End of Day & Key Results:
The market completed its expected range of 77.60 handles, with price exceeding highs into the close—a strong finish.
The session wrapped up with a tag of the D-Level Target at 6081.50, just shy of the final tick of 6081.75. Precision trading at its finest.
Lessons & Takeaways:
Structure Matters – Trading within VWAP zones, sandboxes, and D-Level areas continues to produce high-probability opportunities.
Ignore the Noise, Trade the Levels – Geopolitical headlines can spark volatility, but the room stayed focused and profited by reacting logically.
Gamma Awareness – Understanding dealer positioning and gamma exposure (e.g., JPM collar) adds a powerful layer to intraday context.
Final Thought:
Another excellent day of disciplined trading, patient setups, and tactical execution. Traders who followed the plan were rewarded handsomely—both from technical levels and headline reactions.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Geopolitics:
Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar in response to U.S. strikes; all were intercepted.
Move seen as choreographed to de-escalate; Israel and Iran briefly announced a ceasefire.
Israel later accused Iran of violating the truce, striking Tehran targets in response.
Oil fell $3+/barrel; equity futures rose on easing tensions.
Market Focus:
With Middle East tensions receding, traders pivot back to U.S. tariffs and Fed policy.
Earnings Watch:
Premarket: Carnival (CCL), TD Synnex (SNX)
After the bell: FedEx (FDX)
Economic Calendar:
8:30 AM ET: Current Account
9:00 AM ET: HPI, S&P/CS Composite 20-HPI
10:00 AM ET: CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index
10:00 AM ET: Fed Chair Powell begins Congressional testimony (House Financial Services)
12:30 PM ET: NY Fed’s John Williams speaks
Market Technicals:
ES 5-day ADR: 90.50 points
Whale bias: Bearish into open on light large-trader volume
ES held 200-day MA (5963.75) on Monday; now mid-channel
Key trendline levels:
Resistance: 6367/72
Support: 6020/23, 5988/91, 5589/94
