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SpaceX Mania, Iran Fireworks, and a Market That Can’t Hold a Bid
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The US launched fresh strikes against Iran, striking air defenses and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz last night. According to a senior U.S. official, Iran hit back at US bases in the Middle East.
While Trump says the US and Iran are really close to a deal, Iran has not shown an interest in a deal. This is by far the largest circle jerk in Trump’s second term, and while I know Trump wants a deal, I don’t think Iran is interested in a nuclear agreement.
Iran wants billions in economic relief and the lifting of sanctions and unfreezing assets abroad. I don’t know about you, but it doesn’t seem to me that an agreement is nearing and I think that there will be a resumption of fighting, and the last 4 days of clashes seem to be entering a new dangerous phase.

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Dan @ GTC Traders
Now it Gets Trickier ...
It is no secret that we have been quite bearish on interest rate prices for the last 3 months; as we have expected higher yields. We have made no secret of this as we're blasting it across the X stream every chance we get. And as you know ... Model No. 4 in our Quad Program has been short the Bonds, for what seems like forever.
But then on Friday we experienced a monster sell off in tech.
So what now?
Honestly? We don't see that much of anything has changed as far as the general macroeconomic regime we find ourselves in.
If we are surprised by one facet ... it would be how resilient the Energy markets have been throughout one of the greatest Oil and Energy shocks of the modern age. To be sure? There is still plenty of stress in the Energy market. The full crack spread at the moment is still exceptionally elevated, from it's pre-war February norms …
The Full Crack Spread

But that is far below where we would have thought it to be. Perhaps this is due to SPR releases? Perhaps there are other factors. We do not pretend to be Energy experts.
Regardless, Oil is much lower than we would have thought possible, and Nasdaq and tech sold off massively on Friday. Does this rewrite our inflation thesis?
Not at all.
As we outlined in previous Weekly Notes ... the resilience of the Oil market does not rewrite the completely separate issue, that the Federal Reserve was not serious about fighting inflation. And has not been serious for some time. Financial Conditions remain much, much too loose. In fact, we tend to believe that the sell off in Indices that we saw on Friday had to do with interest rates near the front of the curve heading to higher and higher yields. As we have long tried to communicate to newer and aspiring traders ... everyone tends to pay attention to the histrionic equities markets (stocks).
But in actuality, Interest Rates are what truly rule the financial world.
Last week, stock indices were reminded of that fact.
Regardless, as we were saying ... Financial conditions remain too loose ... we are seeing inflationary data report after inflationary data release after inflationary economic data report released; day after day. And interest rate markets have been paying attention to those reports.
And all of the above, follows on the heels of the larger macro-economic regime that we have outlined for the last four to five years.
And what did we see last week?
Core and CPI Inflation scream higher.
Core Inflation YoY

CPI Inflation YoY

Just as we’ve been saying for the last three months.
To be bluntly honest … the last three months have been some of the easiest ‘macro calls’ of my entire 30 year career. We say that to say that the last 3 months?
That was the easy part.
Now moving forward it get’s trickier. The markets are attempting to move into equilibrium, while fully aware that new tape-bombs are possible at any moment. We await Monetary response to try to determine a way forward. Thus far, as we have outlined, the Fed has been far too loose, for far too long.
There is a new Chairman at the helm. Of course, so it is said … the Federal Reserve Chairman does not set rates. And we have already seen a many members want to peel any and all phrases out of future statements that demonstrate any sort of cutting bias.
So the market awaits to see what the Fed will now do, as the ball is slightly shifting into their court.
Until next time, stay safe, and trade well ...



The ES had a 7393.00 to 7305.50 Globex trading range and opened Wednesday’s regular session at 7355.00, down 37 points, or -0.50%.
After the open, the ES sold off down to 7335.25 at 9:35, made 8 higher highs up to 7396.75, sold off 18.25 points down to 7378.50, rallied 26.25 points up to a 7404.75 double top, pulled back to 7386.75, made a lower high at 7399.00 at 10:30, and then sold off 83.50 points down to 7315.50 at 11:15.
The ES rallied 33.00 points up to 7348.50 at 11:45, sold off 43.50 points down to a new low at 7305.00 at 11:50, rallied 39.00 points up to 7344.00 at 12:35, sold off 29.75 points down to 7314.25, rallied 20.25 points up to 7334.50 at 1:00, and then dropped 35.50 points down to 7299.00 at 1:40.
The ES rallied 39.50 points up to 7338.50 at 2:04, sold off 62.50 points down to 7276.00 at 3:25, rallied up to 7298.75 at 3:40, traded 7290.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance came out small to buy and then flipped to small to sell, sold off down to a new low at 7275.50, rallied up to 7300.75, and sold back off down to 7261.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES sold off down to a new low at 7261.50 at 4:05, traded back up to 7275.75 at 4:20, sold off down to another new low at 7256.00 at 4:45, and settled at 7267.00, down 125.75 points, or -1.70% on the day, and down 4 of the last 6 sessions for a total loss of 356.75 points, or -4.68%.
The NQ settled at 28,472.00, down 645.00 points, or -2.22%, and down 4 of the last 5 sessions for a total loss of 2,094.25 points, or -6.85%.
The YM finished at 49,923.00, down 986.00 points, or -1.94%, and down 4 of the last 6 sessions for a total loss of 1,477.00 points, or -2.87%.
The RTY settled at 2,833.70, down 34.60 points, or -1.21%, for a total loss of 102.30 points, or -3.48% over the last 6 days.
Welcome to Trump world, inflation over 4%, and the SpaceX launch.
In the end, it was another day of whack-a-mole and a big rip in the morning and then a big drop. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, the NQ was the downside leader. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.784 million contracts traded.
Today we have the PPI at 8:30, and at 1:00 is the 30-Yr Bond Auction ($22 billion).

Gold Rush 9-Day (GCN26) Chart
At this point, we should not be surprised with any of the market movements and rug pulls. Gold settled at 4,077.20, down 152.70 points, or -3.61%; the last time it was this low was 11/07/25, and it was down 7 of the last 9 sessions for a total loss of 498.50 points, or -11.37%.

Bitcoin Bonk 19-Day (BTN26) Chart
I was never in love with Bitcoin, but it did have a big rally and now it’s fading. It settled at 61,555, down 790 points, or -1.27%, and down 15 of the last 19 sessions for a total loss of 18,355, or -22.95%.

MiM

The 3:50 p.m. MOC opened with a -$825 million sell imbalance, with $2.47 billion to buy against $3.29 billion to sell. That produced a -57.2% dollar lean and -62.4% symbol lean across 686 names, showing a firm sell-side bias but still short of a wholesale market sell signal.
NYSE was the heaviest venue early, showing -$614 million with a -59.6% dollar lean and -63.8% symbol lean. The S&P 500 was also strongly offered at -$756 million, while NASDAQ was lighter at -$211 million and a more rotational -54.1% dollar lean. Through the minute-by-minute snapshots, the sell pressure stayed consistent from 3:51 through 3:59, with dollar leans mostly between -51% and -59%. The notable transition came into 4:00, when the book flipped to a positive $249 million imbalance with a +54.4% dollar lean, suggesting late offsetting buy interest into the final print.
Sector pressure was concentrated in Information Technology, Energy, Health Care, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate. Information Technology carried the largest net sell at -$243 million, led by sell-side pressure in MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, NOW, AAPL, AVGO, and PLTR. Energy stood out as the clearest wholesale sell sector with a -93.6% dollar lean and -86.7% symbol lean. Basic Materials was also a full sell lean at -100%, though it represented only one symbol. Utilities and Real Estate were also notable, both below -66% on dollar lean, indicating more persistent institutional selling rather than simple rotation.
On the buy side, MU, NVDA, ETN, META, ASML, BBY, IBM, ICE, ON, and KLAC led demand. MU and NVDA were the largest buy imbalances, but overall technology remained net for sale because of heavier offsetting sell programs in mega-cap and software names. Industrial names were mixed, with ETN buying helping the sector finish slightly positive despite a negative symbol lean.





Today’s Links:

Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, June 10, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 33% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 40% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 115 / 67
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 188 / 216
• NYSE TRIN: 1.32
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, June 5, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 30% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 285 / 201
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 854 / 484
• NYSE TRIN: 0.77
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.48
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
BTS are daily generated levels created using a combination of proprietary calculations and AI to define an upper range target and a lower range target, split by a bull/bear line. You receive daily charts along with clear descriptions of each level to help guide your trading.
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Today’s Economic Calendar

Earnings:


PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Wednesday was a Cycle Day 1 discovery session shaped by CPI, responsive buying at the Put Wall, and repeated rejection at the 7390 Line in the Sand. The main lesson was to stay disciplined while the market searched for a secure low, rather than forcing trades during a choppy, distraction-filled session.
Morning Setup
CPI was the early catalyst:
Headline CPI: 0.5% MoM vs. 0.5% expected
Core CPI: 0.2% MoM vs. 0.3% expected
YoY figures matched expectations.
David noted the Put Wall near 7311 was providing early responsive buy support.
CPI buying pushed price up toward the key 7370 handle.
Cycle Day Framework
David identified the session as Cycle Day 1.
The premise was to search for a new secure low.
The early low at 7305.50 was considered “semi-secure” for intraday trading purposes.
Later in the day, David emphasized that price was still probing and had not yet found a secure low.
Key Trade Levels
Early bias was an initial long lean.
Price needed to clear the 7370s for stronger upside continuation.
The key resistance zone became 7390, marked as the Line in the Sand.
A back-test of 7390 LIS was rejected back toward 7370.
David later confirmed the 7390 zone was still rejecting buyers.
Working Sandbox
David defined the active intraday sandbox as 7370–7390.
This gave the room a clear framework:
Above 7390 would favor stronger buyers.
Rejection from 7390 kept the market contained.
Below the lower side of the sandbox suggested weakness.
Afternoon Development
The Put Wall continued to hold as responsive buying support.
Despite that support, price continued probing lower in search of a better secure low.
Bruce noted price was approaching the 100% daily range low near 7285.
David posted the Cycle Day 1 range projection at 7288.85, aligning the afternoon downside probe with the daily range framework.
Positive Takeaways
The room had a clear read on the day’s structure:
CPI-driven buying response.
Put Wall support.
7390 LIS rejection.
Downside discovery toward the projected range low.
The session reinforced the value of using key levels rather than chasing emotion.
David’s decision to stop the recording due to distractions showed good professional discipline and risk awareness.
Lessons Learned
Respect the Line in the Sand: 7390 repeatedly rejected buyers, making it the defining level of the session.
Do not assume a secure low too early: Cycle Day 1 often requires patience while price probes for support.
Let the range framework guide expectations: The move toward 7288.85 showed how daily range projections can help organize the session.
Protect focus: When distractions, audio issues, or chart problems interfere with execution, stepping back is often the best trade.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, June 11, 2026
Pre-Market Overview
US index futures are higher despite renewed US strikes on Iran.
Traders appear to be fading geopolitical risk for now.
VIX dropped sharply to 20.58, down 7.38%, signaling reduced hedging demand.
Oil is down over 1%, suggesting markets are not pricing an immediate supply shock.
Geopolitical Risk
Tehran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but oil markets have not reacted with panic.
Market pricing implies skepticism or expectations of quick de-escalation.
Continued US strikes keep retaliatory and shipping-security risks elevated.
Any confirmed shipping disruption could quickly impact crude, gold, and risk assets.
Macro / Data
CPI came in hot at 4.2% YoY, the highest in three years.
Core CPI printed 2.9%.
This keeps the Fed in a tightening-bias posture and complicates hopes for near-term rate cuts.
Today’s key 8:30am releases:
PPI
Weekly Unemployment Claims
AI / Tech Themes
Goldman Sachs says the AI boom remains underestimated, supporting continued mega-cap tech and NQ leadership.
OpenAI may consider major price cuts, pointing to stronger competition and potential margin pressure.
Anthropic’s CEO framed job reduction as an intrinsic feature of AI, raising UBI and labor-displacement debate.
TSMC faces added political scrutiny from Republican lawmakers, creating potential uncertainty around US-Taiwan chip cooperation and domestic fab timelines.
Volatility & Flow
Volatility contracted Wednesday, but the 5-day average daily range rose to 161.25 points from 156.25.
Volatility remains very high.
Whale bias is bullish into the 8:30am data on decent overnight large-trader volume.
ES Levels
The short-term downtrend channel top acted as strong resistance Wednesday.
Adjusted short-term downtrend channel resistance is now 7344/34.
ES continues to use the 50-day MA at 7256.25 as loose support after strong bounces yesterday and overnight.
Key Levels
Resistance: 7344/34, 7465/55, 7725/35
Support: 7256.25 50-day MA, 7050/40





