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SpaceX Hits the Big Board: Nasdaq Bulls Strap In, One Day at a Time
Danny Riley
July 07, 2026
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I don’t know if this is bullish or bearish, but SpaceX makes its debut on the Nasdaq-100 today, carrying a starting weight below 1%. While Invesco’s massive QQQ (~$500B in assets) remains the go-to tracker for retail traders, thriftier investors can find better rates than its 0.18% expense ratio.
State Street’s fresh SPDR Portfolio Nasdaq 100 fund leads the discount race at a mere 0.1%, BlackRock has a rival low-fee fund on the horizon, and Invesco provides its own budget version, QQQM, at 0.15%.
My guess would be that, with so much emphasis on the Nasdaq, it’s going to be bullish.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
HandelStats Levels:
OPEN
Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
Value Is the Map
Auction analysis begins and ends with one question: where is value? Value is the price zone where buyers and sellers transact in size and agree, however temporarily, on what something is worth, is the market's map. Every other reference point is drawn from it. Price above value means the market is advertising for sellers; price below it, advertising for buyers; price inside it, doing business as usual. XLC illustrates the whole cycle on a single chart: the April-to-September migration was price searching for value after the old level failed, and the nine-month balance that followed is value being built and confirmed at the new level. Traders who anchor to price alone are navigating without a map and reacting to every tick as if it carried meaning. Traders who anchor to value know what the market has already decided, and can focus on the only thing that matters: whether that decision is holding, or breaking.
Not every move outside value is a departure. In late March, XLC broke below the lower edge of its balance, but the market refused to do business down there. Price was rejected within days and pulled straight back inside the bracket. That is the auction's verdict: the lower prices were advertised, no new sellers responded, and the existing value area was reaffirmed. A failed departure is information, not noise. It tells you the agreement is intact and that the odds favor rotation back toward the other side of the range. The move that matters is the one that gets accepted, where price leaves value and stays out. Until then, rejection and re-entry is the balance defending itself.
The Test at the Border
XLC now sits on the other side of the question. In late June, price left value decisively, traded down to 105, and is now rallying back toward the lower edge of the old balance near 111. This is the moment to watch. Value borders act as support and resistance because they mark where agreement ended. If buyers can push price back inside the bracket and hold it there, the departure fails and the entire range comes back into play. But if this rally stalls at the border and gets turned away, the old value area has flipped from support to supply. Sellers who accepted those prices for nine months are now trapped above the market, and each approach to the edge gives them an exit. Failure to re-enter value is the market's way of confirming the breakdown, and it opens the door to further pressure below.
The ES had a 7574.25 to 7538.25 Globex trading range and opened Monday’s regular session at 7564.75, up 7.75 points or +0.10% from Friday’s cash close.
First, I want to explain that while my lean was correct, the real thing is that after so many people traded during the 4th of July week, I don’t think everyone was in a hurry to come flying back to jump on their screens, which definitely supported my thin-to-win theory.
After the open, the ES sold off 5.75 points down to 7559.00 at 9:30, rallied 13.50 points up to 7572.50 at 9:45, and sold off 6.50 points down to 7566.50 at 10:00. It then rallied 14.50 points up to 7581.00 at 10:15, rallied 2.50 points up to 7583.50 at 10:30, and rallied 2.50 points up to 7586.00 at 10:45. From there, it rallied 3.75 points up to 7589.75 at 11:00, rallied 2.75 points up to 7592.50 at 11:15, and rallied 2.25 points up to a session high of 7594.75 at 11:30.
The ES then sold off 6.25 points down to 7588.50 at 11:45, rallied 5.00 points up to 7593.50 at 12:00, sold off 6.25 points down to 7587.25 at 12:30, rallied 4.25 points up to 7591.50 at 1:00, sold off 2.50 points down to 7589.00 at 1:15, and rallied 3.00 points up to 7592.00 at 1:30. It then sold off 3.75 points down to 7588.25 at 2:10, rallied 4.75 points up to 7593.00 at 2:30, sold off 4.00 points down to 7589.00 at 3:15, and rallied 3.00 points up to 7592.00 at 3:40. It then traded 7593.50 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $7 billion to sell billion and traded 7598.50 at 3:59, and traded 7593.50 on the 4:00 cash close, up 28.75 points or +0.38% on the day.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7587.25 and settled at 7596.75, up 36.50 points or +0.46%. The NQ settled at 30,049.50, up 147.75 points or +0.49%, the YM settled at 53,246, up 84 points or +0.16%, and the RTY settled at 3,028.90, up 5.40 points or +0.18%.
In the end, my lean was for higher prices and to buy the pullbacks or weakness, but my concern in the lean was the tech weakness we saw in June, but Thursday’s 3:50 Nasdaq buy imbalance was the tell. I don’t think anyone should be surprised. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm, with all the dips and pullbacks being bought. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, at 3:00, total ES volume, including the 255k traded on Globex, was only 865k. Total volume on the day ended up with 1.09 million contracts traded, or the lowest volume in 14 sessions.
This week is also thin on the economic calendar: There are no scheduled economic reports today. On Wednesday, July 8, the Monthly Wholesale Trade report will be released at 10:00 AM, the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM, and Consumer Credit data at 3:00 PM. On Thursday, July 9, Weekly Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30 AM, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM. There are no scheduled economic reports on Friday, July 10.
Market-on-Close Recap
The MOC opened with a heavy sell-side imbalance and stayed that way through the entire 10-minute window. At 15:51, the all-market imbalance showed -$7.317B, with $2.849B to buy against $10.166B to sell. That produced a -78.1% dollar lean and a -58.3% symbol lean, with 288 buy symbols vs. 403 sell symbols across 691 total symbols. The dollar lean was the key tell: anything beyond -66% points to a more wholesale sell program rather than simple rotation.
The pressure was even more concentrated in the major indexes. The S&P 500 opened at -$7.193B, with a -79.3% dollar lean and -62.1% symbol lean, while Nasdaq was the most aggressive read at -$6.294B, with a -90.1% dollar lean and -70.3% symbol lean. That Nasdaq symbol lean crossed the -66% threshold, confirming broad-based sell pressure rather than just a few mega-cap names. NYSE was less severe but still negative at -$1.009B, with a -59.8% dollar lean and -56.2% symbol lean.
The imbalance gradually improved into the close but never flipped. From -$7.317B at 15:51, it narrowed to -$6.480B, -$5.255B, and -$4.387B, then worked down to -$591M at 15:59 and finished near -$307M at 16:00. That showed sell pressure being paired off, but not fully neutralized.
Sector-wise, the selling was broad. Information Technology was the largest drag at -$3.814B, with an extreme -86.2% dollar lean, led by sell imbalances in NVDA, AAPL, MU, AVGO, MSFT, INTC, and AMD. Communication Services also showed wholesale selling at -$712M and -82.8%, with GOOGL and META notable. Consumer Discretionary was hit with AMZN and TSLA, while Health Care, Financials, Materials, and Energy all showed notable sell-side leans. The buy side was selective, with CSCO, MCD, HON, T, RTX, INTU, STT, XOM, PG, and ABT standing out, but overall this was a sell-dominated close.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, July 6, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 60% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 131 / 24
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 240 / 108
• NYSE TRIN: 1.21
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.03
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Thursday, July 3, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 338 / 144
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 712 / 357
• NYSE TRIN: 1.40
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.99
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, July 6, 2026
PTG had a strong and educational Cycle Day 1 session on Monday. David guided the room through the day’s structure, emphasizing the DTS target zones, CD1 bull scenario, stop-loss discipline, and the importance of following chart-based evidence rather than opinion.
Morning Context
The day was identified as Cycle Day 1 (CD1).
Overnight price rotated from the lower DTS target zone near 7535 to the upper target zone near 7575.
David shared the Daily Trade Strategy briefing and framed the morning around whether buyers could maintain control.
The key bull trigger was acceptance above 7550 ±5.
Early Trade Structure
Members identified a reverse BLT around 7566 near 9:35 AM.
The setup sparked discussion about how reverse BLTs can create strong directional opportunities when aligned with the broader market context.
The room referenced a prior example from last Thursday, when a reverse BLT produced a major downside move.
Risk Management Focus
David emphasized the importance of using stop loss orders.
The room discussed how stops are essential protection, not a sign of failure.
Several members noted they always trade with attached orders that include a protective stop.
The lesson was clear: disciplined risk control keeps traders in the game.
Trader Psychology and Process
David led a valuable discussion on the mental side of trading.
Topics included releasing the need to prove oneself, managing emotional triggers, and keeping the inner critic under control.
Members shared personal reflections about staying aligned with process.
A key reminder was to ask: “What does the chart say?”
The room emphasized following the chart rather than forcing a prediction.
Educational Review
David reviewed several PTG concepts and trading tools, including:
MATD — Morning After Trend Day
Central Pivot Zone
Breakout versus range behavior
High-volume prints
Discount and premium areas
Pinching
RSPR
The 34 EMA
Members actively asked questions, making the morning a strong learning session.
CD1 Bull Scenario
David outlined the day’s bull case clearly:
Buyers remain in control with acceptance above 7550 ±5
Upside objectives:
7570
7575
7585
Target Achievement
The market followed the CD1 bull scenario well.
Price declined into the DTS target zone, then rallied during RTH.
Buyers held above the prior close.
The market fulfilled the 7585 upper DTS target.
David described the action as a textbook Cycle Day 1.
Afternoon Continuation
The bullish CD1 structure continued into the afternoon.
David noted that buyers achieved the 7599.15 penetration target.
This confirmed continued buyer strength and rewarded traders who respected the bullish framework.
Closing Action
Near the close, David flagged a large MOC sell imbalance of $7 billion.
He described the late-day action as “Pump’em to Dump’em.”
The comment suggested that larger players pushed price higher before selling into strength near the close.
Key Lessons
Respect the daily trade strategy and target zones.
Let the chart guide decisions.
Use stop loss orders consistently.
Recognize quality setups such as reverse BLT.
Stay disciplined and avoid emotional trading.
Focus on process, not prediction.
CD1 structure can provide strong opportunities when buyers or sellers clearly take control.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Market Tone
US stock futures are lower as traders reassess the durability of the AI trade.
Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure long-duration tech valuations.
With a light macro calendar, sector headlines and geopolitical developments may drive intraday sentiment.
AI and Tech Watch
Samsung’s 1,800% profit surge reinforces strong demand for AI memory chips and data-center components.
The news may support AI infrastructure and memory-related names if futures stabilize.
Big Tech sentiment remains mixed, with Microsoft facing scrutiny over gaming acquisition returns.
Meta could see headline-driven volatility tied to a large youth-safety trial claim.
Geopolitical Focus
Reports suggest China may be softening its stance ahead of a potential US-China summit.
Any confirmation of progress could support semiconductors, industrials, and multinational tech.
Traders should remain alert for intraday headlines that could shift risk sentiment.
Economic Calendar
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 7:00 a.m. ET.
ADP Weekly Employment Change is due at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Trade Balance is due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
No major earnings are scheduled today, with Q2 earnings season starting next week.
Volatility and Positioning
Volatility remains moderately elevated, though the ES 5-day average daily range has eased to 91 points.
Summer trading conditions may limit volatility, but geopolitical risks remain a potential catalyst.
Whale bias is leaning short into the US open on light overnight large-trader volume.
ES Technical Levels
ES remains rangebound below 7600, coiling for either a retest of 7700 or a move lower toward the 50-day MA near 7488.
Key resistance remains the intermediate-term downtrend channel top at 7599/94.
Bears have room to work lower toward 7395/90 if downside pressure builds.
Resistance
7599/94
8060/65
Support
7395/90
7245/40
7198/93
