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- They Sold ’Em Late, But the Tape Still Says Buy the Weakness
They Sold ’Em Late, But the Tape Still Says Buy the Weakness
Danny Riley
June 17, 2026
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The rollover and the shortened holiday week, combined with the supposed signing of the U.S./Iran deal, seem to have been part of some of the risk-off trade yesterday. After falling down to 74.74, the CLQ26 bounced up to 76.31. This headline came up late in the day and, while I don't think it had much to do with the late weakness, it surely isn't a good sign:
"The default rate among private-credit borrowers has reached the highest level in the roughly three-year history of an index from Kroll Bond Rating Agency, adding to signs of stress in the $1.8 trillion industry."
My nephew runs a car dealership and said that in his over 28 years in the business, he has never seen so many people not pay their car loans. When I showed him this headline, he said, "I have been seeing it for months." Let's face it, there are a host of problems out there, but I kind of thought things had gone too far, and I was right. I got short early and stayed with it most of the day, but I didn't stay short after 4:00.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
The ESU26 traded in a narrow 7634.75 to 7616.00 Globex trading range and opened Tuesday's regular session at 7628.00, down 2.25 points, or -0.03%.
After the open, the ES traded down to 7624.25, rallied up to 7636.75, sold off down to 7621.25, rallied up to a lower high at 7634.00 at 10:10, sold off 30 points down to 7604.00 at 10:30, rallied up to another lower high at 7621.50, sold off down to 7606.50, rallied up to another lower high at 7619.25 at 11:10, and then sold off 20.25 points down to 7599.00 at 11:45.
It rallied 23.25 points up to 7622.25 at 12:10 and, over the next hour and twenty-five minutes, sold off down to a new low at 7598.50 at 1:35, rallied to 7611.50 at 1:55, sold off down to 7598.75, rallied back up to 7611.50, sold back off through the previous lows down to 7584.75 at 3:15, and then quickly recovered 15.25 points up to 7600.00 at 3:25 and then sold back off down to a higher low at 7587.50 at 3:41.
It rallied up to 7595 and traded 7592.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $3.7 billion to buy, which went out to $5.5 billion to buy, with the Nasdaq showing $2.8 billion to buy. The ES rallied up to 7597.75, sold off down to 7589.25, and then rallied back up to 7596.75, sold off down to 7583.00, and traded 7588.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7578.00 and settled at 7583.00, down 43.50 points, or -0.57%. The NQ settled at 30,300.50, down 563.75 points, or -1.83%; the YM settled at 52,466.00, up 337 points, or +0.65%; and the RTY settled at 2,962.50, down 26.10 points, or -0.87% on the day.
In the end, the main thing that stuck out was the rotation out of the NQ into the YM. That said, it was a very slow trading session that definitely included some risk-off trade. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was weak but not overly so. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was low. 826k ESM traded and 1.73 million ESU traded, for a total of 904k ESM equivalent contracts traded.
Today is day one of the Fed's two-day meeting. While it may not be very significant in terms of rates, it's Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Chair, scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, while also removing the easing bias from the policy statement and shifting to a more neutral stance. The updated dot plot is likely to show no rate cuts for the rest of 2026. In his press conference, Warsh is expected to emphasize data dependence, highlight ongoing inflation risks, and adopt a more reserved communication style with less forward guidance than his predecessor. Overall, the tone is anticipated to be a hawkish hold.
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos
Note: Trading Room RECAP archives link: PTG-RECAP
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the conclusion of its June 17, 2026, meeting.
This meeting marks the high-stakes debut of newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who faces a complex economic backdrop driven by a strong labor market and a three-year high inflation rate of 4.2% (fueled in part by energy spikes from the ongoing Iran war).
🔥 Cycle Day 3 — Targets Achieved. Bulls Still Driving.
Cycle Day 2 delivered exactly what strong markets often do:
A healthy dose of consolidation…
🚀 Buy. The. Effing. Dip.
Because right now, the market continues following the same operating manual:
✅ Refuse weakness
✅ Punish hesitation
✅ Trap aggressive shorts
✅ Force late money to chase
And so far?
That playbook remains fully operational.
Every pullback continues attracting buyers with machine-like precision.
Not emotional.
Not dramatic.
Just relentless institutional accumulation…
Possibly assisted by a highly advanced anti-gravity propulsion system operating somewhere over the Pacific.
💰 The Dominant Script Remains: BTFD
The Buy-The-Dip crowd continues controlling the battlefield.
Despite:
• Volatility spikes
• Geopolitical headline roulette
• Extended sentiment readings
• Daily forecasts of imminent market collapse
…the tape continues rewarding trend followers while providing expensive educational seminars for those attempting to outsmart the trend.
📊 Why Cycle Day 3 Matters
Historically, a Positive 3-Day Cycle currently carries a:
🚀 92.89% Performance Rate
That’s not certainty.
But it is a probability worth respecting.
Until proven otherwise, the path of least resistance remains higher.
The market has no obligation to become rational simply because someone is uncomfortable.
🛰️ PTG Tactical View
Current evidence suggests:
✅ Trend remains intact
✅ Momentum remains intact
✅ Dip-buying behavior remains intact
✅ Big Tech leadership remains intact
✅ Short-squeeze fuel remains intact
Could consolidation be approaching?
Absolutely.
Could the rally be entering the later innings?
Possibly.
Has price confirmed any of that?
Not yet.
And until price says otherwise, we remain aligned with the dominant force.
🎯 PTG Bottom Line
Respect the trend.
Respect momentum.
Respect probabilities.
And respect the possibility that a small team of highly motivated extraterrestrials may still be handling overnight inventory management.
Until price proves otherwise…
The bulls retain control of the battlefield.
The trend remains guilty—
Until proven innocent.
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance above 7600 ±5
If buyers defend value north of this pivot, upside continuation remains viable.
🎯 Initial Upside Objectives
7610
7615
7625
Expectations:
Orderly trade
Controlled tempo
Clean inventory
Trend continuation
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance below 7600 ±5
Failure to hold the pivot opens the door for rotation and balance repair.
🎯 Initial Downside Objectives
7580
7565
7555
Expectations:
Increased two-sided trade
Inventory correction
Balance development
📊 Key Reference Levels
PVA High Edge: 7621
PVA Low Edge: 7589
Prior POC: 7615
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
Stock Trader’s Almanac - Jeff Hirsch
With Kevin Warsh officially at the helm as Federal Reserve Chair and the FOMC meeting now, traders and investors are once again asking: What happens to the stock market after a new Fed Chair takes office?
Warsh’s tenure begun with mixed market reaction as the Iran War dominated headlines. The S&P 500 gained 1.80% during his first week, slipped modestly over the subsequent week, but as of the close on June 15 was up 1.46%. Such early volatility is not unusual. Historical results show that the first few weeks after a leadership transition at the Fed have often provided little indication of the market’s longer-term direction.
Historical data in the accompanying updated table provides perspective. Since 1930, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns one year after a new Fed Chair’s appointment, 75% of the time, with an average gain of 5.4%. Excluding the extraordinary circumstances surrounding Eugene Meyer’s appointment during the Great Depression and Alan Greenspan’s arrival just before the 1987 crash, the results become even more compelling. Under those adjusted figures, the S&P 500 was higher 90% of the time one year later, with an average gain of 12.7%.
The more important factor may be the outlook for monetary policy.
Investors entered 2026 expecting several rate cuts. However, inflation has proven more persistent than many anticipated, with recent CPI readings remaining above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. As a result, futures markets and many economists have dramatically scaled back expectations for rate reductions this year. Several major forecasts now anticipate that the Fed could leave rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026, while some market participants are even assigning a modest probability to an additional rate hike if inflation remains stubbornly high.
For equities, this creates both a challenge and an opportunity. Higher-for-longer interest rates can pressure valuations, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Yet history suggests that markets often perform well following Fed leadership transitions, especially when economic growth remains positive (it is) and corporate earnings continue to expand (they are).
The key takeaway for traders and investors is that while uncertainty surrounding Fed policy may generate short-term volatility, history indicates that new Fed Chair transitions have generally been constructive for stocks over the following year. If inflation gradually moderates and Warsh successfully balances price stability with economic growth, the historical tendency toward stronger equity performance could once again prevail.
The MOC opened with a strong dollar-side buy imbalance, but the tape quickly showed a split personality under the surface. At 15:51, all markets showed a $3.7B net buy imbalance, built from $5.8B to buy versus $2.1B to sell. That created a very strong dollar lean of +73.6%, which is notable because anything above +66% suggests a wholesale-style buy program rather than simple rotation. However, the symbol lean was -54.2%, with 316 symbols to buy and 374 to sell, making the broader participation more rotational and sell-skewed by count.
The opening read was led by index demand. The S&P 500 showed a $4.040B buy imbalance with a +78.8% dollar lean and +54.0% symbol lean. Nasdaq was even stronger on dollars at +81.1%, with $3.561B to buy against $827.89M to sell. NYSE was less forceful at +64.2%, just below the wholesale threshold, and carried a negative symbol lean of -55.6%.
The transition after 15:51 was important. The imbalance peaked early, then faded steadily. By 15:56, the market flipped from a $1.458B buy imbalance to a -$1.953B sell imbalance, with dollar lean turning -66.2%. That was the key pivot from buy-side index demand into wholesale sell pressure. By 16:01, the sell pressure deepened to -$1.038B, with a -76.4% dollar lean and -69.5% symbol lean, showing a broad sell-side close.
Sector action was mixed. Health Care was the cleanest buy sector, +$283.74M with a +72.2% dollar lean. Information Technology was also strong at +$2.543B and +83.7%, driven by semiconductor buying, including NVDA, MU, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, KLAC, ASML, NXPI, COHR, and LRCX. Materials also cleared the +66% threshold at +70.1%.
On the sell side, Basic Materials was a full liquidation read at -100%, while Energy’s symbol lean hit -66.7%. Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Financials, Industrials, Utilities, and Communication Services all showed negative symbol leans, confirming the close became less about broad accumulation and more about concentrated mega-cap tech buying against wider market distribution.
Daily Market Recap 📊 - Tuesday June 17th
• NYSE Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 52% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 100 / 42
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 182 / 143
• NYSE TRIN: 1.42
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81
Weekly Breadth Data 📈 - Week of June 12
• NYSE Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 266 / 197
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 556 / 511
• NYSE TRIN: 1.80
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.27
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, June 16, 2026
PTG Room Summary – Tuesday
The day opened with David identifying it as Cycle Day 2, noting that the overnight session had traded in a normal CD2 rhythm with an overnight range of 22.50 handles. The early tone was constructive, and shortly after the open David stated the default lean was long for now.
As the morning developed, price action became more two-sided and then shifted lower. David later identified the active sandbox as 7620–7630, giving traders a clear zone to frame decisions. Once price moved below the opening range, David adjusted the read and shifted the room to a sell-side lean on bounces. That was an important lesson for the day: stay flexible and let the market structure dictate the bias rather than holding onto the initial long lean.
There was a useful teaching moment around the first pullback after the downshift, with Ram asking whether the touch of A4 around 10:26 was the first pullback. David confirmed that it was. This helped reinforce how to identify a change in auction behavior and where to look for continuation opportunities after the market breaks structure.
The room also spent time discussing market profile and order-flow concepts, including POC movement, bid/ask candle settings, buyer/seller behavior, and confirmation tools. Members were engaged with questions, and David walked through chart settings so the explanations would be captured on the recording. The group also discussed concepts like turtle soup behavior, premium/discount context, and how to read confirmation during turns.
The close matched the expected Cycle Day 2 theme. David summarized the session as normal CD2 rhythms, with shock absorbers and back-and-fill consolidation. In other words, the market did not produce a sustained trend day but instead worked through a rotational/consolidation process after the opening activity.
Positive takeaways:
The best opportunity came from recognizing the transition from the early long bias to a sell-the-bounce posture once price moved below the opening range. The 7620–7630 sandbox gave traders a practical area to manage expectations, and the A4 pullback discussion provided a clean example of how to frame the first pullback after a directional shift.
Lesson of the day:
Cycle Day 2 often requires patience and flexibility. The market can start with one lean, then rotate into balance or shift direction. The key was not predicting, but adapting: identify the opening range, monitor whether price accepts above or below it, and then trade the appropriate side of the auction.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Pre-Market Tone
Equity futures are higher as markets position for the Fed to hold rates.
Inflation remains elevated after the recent wholesale price spike.
Traders expect Chair Warsh to keep a restrictive tone, pushing rate-cut expectations further out.
The Fed this afternoon is the main scheduled volatility catalyst.
Geopolitics & Risk Sentiment
Reports suggest the US and Iran are preparing for a deal signing, helping stabilize risk sentiment.
Markets are leaning into de-escalation despite additional US strikes.
VIX has pulled back sharply as hedging demand eases.
President Trump speaks from the G7 at 9:00am ET, with markets expecting more details on the US-Iran deal.
Oil & Hormuz Risk
Trump remains optimistic about a quick Hormuz resolution, but trade flows may take months to normalize.
Oil remains soft, suggesting traders still view disruption as a tail risk rather than a base case.
Shipping insurers and energy markets remain cautious.
A slower normalization timeline may limit the size of any geopolitical relief rally.
EV, AI & Tech Themes
Global EV sales are surging, supported by price cuts, better charging infrastructure, and resilient demand.
US EV purchases are also rising, helping autos and battery-supply-chain names.
Alibaba introduced new AI models for robotics, reinforcing the applied AI and industrial automation theme.
AI infrastructure and robotics remain high-growth, high-capex areas, though valuations remain stretched.
Speculative Tech / SpaceX Watch
SpaceX has reportedly overtaken Amazon to become the world’s fifth most valuable company.
Starlink growth, AI infrastructure ambitions, and IPO anticipation are driving the narrative.
Traders are rotating out of Tesla toward the “next Musk trade.”
The SpaceX story is becoming a standalone catalyst for retail flows and speculative tech.
Earnings
This morning: Jabil (JBL)
Thursday morning: Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR)
Today’s Calendar
8:30am ET: Retail Sales
9:00am ET: President Trump speaks from the G7
10:00am ET: Business Inventories and Pending Home Sales
10:30am ET: Crude Oil Inventories
2:00pm ET: FOMC Minutes and Dot Plot
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference follows.
Volatility & Whale Bias
Volatility consolidated Tuesday, but the 5-day average daily range increased to 128.5 from 120.25 points.
Volatility remains elevated and could stay high around this afternoon’s Fed reaction.
Whale bias is bearish into the 8:30am ET Retail Sales data on elevated large trader volume.
ES Technicals
Monday’s ES high is now the anchor for new trendlines.
The clearest resistance is the intermediate-term downtrend channel top at 7650/45.
That level still needs a retest and hold to confirm strength.
Former short-term uptrend channel top at 7550/55 may not hold through major news reactions.
Higher-probability support zones are the short-term uptrend channel bottom at 7490/95 and long-term uptrend channel bottom at 7427/32.
ES 50-day MA at 7390.25 continues to rise and remains loose support below.
If Monday’s high holds and ES falls into the 7400s, it could be viewed as a high-failure setup, opening risk toward the ES 200-day MA at 7047.50.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7650/45, 7871/81
Support: 7550/55, 7490/95, 7427/32, 7358/68
