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SpaceX Friday, CPI on Deck, Oil Going Wild — This Market Is One Sell Program Away From Getting Bushwhacked
Danny Riley
June 10, 2026
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AMD, MRVL, MU, SOXQ 1-Day Chart
I think tech stocks are weakening ahead of SpaceX’s IPO on Friday, and the volatile oil markets are not helping either. I also think part of the reason why gold has been weak is because the Middle East has been one of the largest buyers, and they have been dumping the precious metal to use for reconstruction costs from the war.
The chipmakers took the worst hit yesterday; shares of AMD, MRVL, and MU fell sharply, and that pushed the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index down 1.9%. I am not going to hide from my bad call, but I think most traders were just as caught off guard as I was.
Bloomberg Price Project, now covering 85% of the basket, is saying this about May’s CPI. @tdurie95
Flagging:
Pickup in computer-related goods, including the memory chip and NAND shortage
Strong airfares
Accelerated inflation in sports equipment and major appliances, basically stuff that has a high metal component. This may seem like tariff pass-through, but is not.
And yet…
Core CPI is close to the pace consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
How to square it?
Weak recreation services inflation.
People are cutting back on gyms, clubs, streaming services, vet visits, and dental visits.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
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The ES traded in a 7428.00 to 7459.75 trading range on Globex and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 7555.50, up 42.50 points or +0.57%.
After the open, the ES traded 7456.50, rallied up to 7491.00 at 9:45, and then sold off 123.50 points down to 7367.50 at 10:50. From there, it rallied 135.25 points up to 7502.75, sold off down to 7384.25, and rallied 21.25 points up to 7405.50 at 11:12.
It then sold off 79.50 points down to 7326.00 at 11:30, rallied up to 7349.00, sold off 74.25 points down to 7274.75, rallied 32.75 points up to 7307.50, and sold off 60.25 points down to 7247.25 at 12:40—which was 243.75 points off the high of the day.
That is when I posted this in the IMPRO chat:
Dboy [12:43:16 PM]: going to bounce
The market then rallied 32.00 points up to 7279.25 at 12:45, sold off down to a higher low at 7257.00, and rallied 104.50 points up to 7361.50 at 1:40. After pulling back to 7331.00, it rallied 53.75 points up to 7384.75 at 2:35, sold off down to 7364.75, and then rallied up to 7398.75 at 3:05, which was 151.50 points off the low.
After that high, the ES dropped down to 7348.50 at 3:40 and traded 7352.75 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $6 billion to buy. It then rallied 39.75 points up to 7392.50 and traded 7392.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 7399.00 at 4:05, sold off down to 7382.50 at 4:20, traded back up to 7393.75, and settled at 7392.75. This left it down 23.25 points or -0.31% on the day, and down 3 of the last 5 sessions for a total loss of 231 points or -2.03%.
NQ, ES, YM, QR 5-Day Chart
Meanwhile, the NQ settled at 29117.00, down 337.75 points or -1.15%, and down 3 of the last 4 sessions for a total loss of 1449.25 points or -4.73%. The YM finished at 50909, up 53 points or +0.10%, but down 3 of the last 5 sessions for a total loss of 491 points or -0.96%. The RTY settled at 2868.30, up 8.80 points or +0.31%, and up 3 of the last 5 sessions for a total loss of 67.70 points or -2.31%.
The takeaway is that the NQ got hit the hardest, the RTY got hit a little harder than the ES, and the YM took the smallest loss.
In the end, I posted in the MTS chat that something was wrong with the NQ after it made its early high, and not long after, there was an aggressive wave of selling in the mega-cap tech and semiconductor space. Micron Technology perfectly illustrated the whiplash: it swung from being up 4.2% early in the morning to down 4.9% as rumors circulated through trading desks that the administration was considering a major escalation.
In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they both reversed hard, but the NQ was clearly the weak link. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was high at 2.4 million contracts traded—the highest volume since March 31.
I got too optimistic. I thought if the ES sold off and back-and-filled for a few days, we could see it above 7500. Well, the ES actually got close when it traded up to 7491.00, but the NQ had other plans. I saw it coming, posting:
Dboy [9:36:11 AM]: some NQ sells showing up
Dboy [10:09:28 AM]: NQ not acting well
The NQ high was 29848.25 around 9:35, and when it pulled back 100 to 120 points, I tried to buy it but got out right away. By 12:00, it had fallen 1620.50 points. There were a few 15-minute bars where it sold off 300 to 400 points, and there was one 15-minute ES bar where it fell 70 points.
May CPI Estimates at 8:30 ET
The Moving Parts
Goldman’s softer core call (+0.17% M/M) is driven primarily by an expectation of continued softening in airfares and a pullback in used-car prices.
Sustained moderation in Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), looking to shake off some of the lagging rental strength that bumped up prior prints.
Market Context
The broader market consensus is anticipating headline inflation to heat up on a year-over-year basis to 4.2%, largely driven by persistent energy pressures filtering through, while looking for core to moderate slightly to around 0.23% M/M.
Because Goldman is tracking notably below consensus on the core print, a realization of their +0.17% figure would likely trigger a sharp relief rally in equity index futures and pull Treasury yields off their recent highs. Conversely, a print matching the consensus or ticking hotter would leave the “higher-for-longer” narrative firmly in place heading into the afternoon Fed decision.
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
🔄 Transition: Cycle Day 3 → Cycle Day 1
Reset…Reload…Re-engage.
CD3 Cycle is a distant bragging-rights memory now as it fades into the rearview mirror.
Inventory clears.
Weak hands get rinsed.
Late shorts exhale like they just dodged traffic.
Late longs quietly Google “career alternatives.”
And just like that —
🎬 Cue the bell.
Brand. New. Cycle Day 1.
This is not continuation energy. This is foundation-pouring, blueprint-drawing, steel-beam-installing energy.
Cycle Day 1 doesn’t chase.
Cycle Day 1 builds.
It’s mechanical. It’s calculated. It tests Average Decline Levels with surgical intent. It forces emotional traders to show their cards early — and usually fold by noon.
This is where professionals:
✔️ Let price come to them
✔️ Let structure define bias
✔️ Let risk dictate size
✔️ Let patience do the heavy lifting
No headline chasing.
No social-media-induced FOMO.
No “this feels like” trades.
Just levels.
Structure.
Execution.
Volatility may expand. But so does our edge — because we operate from preparation, not prediction.
PTG doesn’t panic. PTG positions.
Welcome to Cycle Day 1.
Hard hats on.
Blueprints out.
Let’s build.
The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan
1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force
Think current — not prediction.
When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue — we align.
Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.
When structure flips?
Same process. Opposite direction.
No emotion.
No hero trades.
Just flow.
Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave — you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work. 🌊
The market rewards traders who ride momentum, not those who try to predict the tide.
2️⃣ Trade Location, Not Emotion
Where you trade matters more than when you trade.
The PTG approach is built on high-probability locations, not impulsive entries.
We focus on:
Support / Resistance Structure
Stacker Zones
Premium vs. Discount
ATR Pullbacks
Liquidity Targets
When price reaches these locations, we engage with purpose — not impulse.
Amateurs chase price.
Professionals wait for price to come to them.
Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. 🎯
Patience builds consistency.
Consistency builds confidence.
Confidence builds longevity.
The Bottom Line
Pillar #1: Trade with the dominant force
Pillar #2: Trade from advantageous location
Master these two principles and everything else becomes execution.
Simple. Structured. Repeatable.
The Toolbox Matters — But the Hand Using It Matters More
The PTG Trader Toolbox isn’t just well-equipped — it’s built for every market condition you’ll encounter.
Yes… even that strange, rarely-used wrench you didn’t know you’d eventually need.
But here’s the truth:
Your edge doesn’t come from using everything.
Your edge comes from mastering the right tools — the ones that align with your plan, your personality, and your execution style.
Inside the PTG Member’s Area, the resources run deep.
Dozens of educational videos.
Real trade breakdowns.
Live market walkthroughs.
Each one designed to compress your learning curve, eliminate guesswork, and help you build confidence through clarity — not noise.
And when the chart starts moving fast…
When volatility rises…
When emotions try to sneak into your decision-making…
PTGDavid is in the room.
Calm.
Focused.
Professional.
Guiding traders through structure.
Grounding decisions in probabilities.
Keeping the community aligned with what actually matters — price, structure, and discipline.
Because in the end…
Tools don’t make traders successful.
Mastery does.
🎯 Cycle Day 1 Focus
Scenarios for today’s trade
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 7390 ±5
Upside objectives:
• 7415
• 7440
• 7455
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 7390 ±5
Downside objectives:
• 7370
• 7355
• 7340
📊 Key Reference Levels
• PVA High Edge: 7403
• PVA Low Edge: 7283
• Prior POC: 7392
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
The June 9 MOC opened with a clear buy-side tone and never seriously lost that character. At 15:50, the imbalance was $5.565B, with $6.622B to buy against $1.056B to sell. That opening burst set the tone for the close: this was not a neutral rotation, it was a broad institutional buy program.
The imbalance then transitioned lower in dollar terms, but the buy side remained dominant throughout the window. Total imbalance faded from $5.565B at 15:51 to $4.116B, $3.338B, and eventually $2.053B at 16:00. Even with that decay, the dollar lean stayed heavily positive, holding mostly in the 71% to 79% range after the initial print. The final All Markets read showed an +86.2% dollar lean and +64.3% symbol lean, a strong buy bias by dollars and a supportive, though slightly more rotational, symbol count.
The strongest index reads were also buy-side. S&P 500 showed $5.493B net buy with an +88.4% dollar lean and +74.5% symbol lean, while Nasdaq showed $2.684B net buy with an +87.1% dollar lean and +76.5% symbol lean. Both were above the +66% threshold, indicating wholesale buy pressure rather than simple rotation.
Sector participation was broad. Information Technology led with $2.148B net buy, driven by NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, INTC, AMAT, MSTR, and NOW. Consumer Discretionary was also strong at $720.63M, helped by TSLA and AMZN. Industrials, Health Care, Financials, Energy, Real Estate, Utilities, and Communication Services all leaned positive. Basic Materials printed a perfect +100% dollar and symbol lean, though on only one symbol.
On the sell side, the largest individual pressure appeared in GOOGL, AMAT, META, MSTR, and NOW. The largest buy-side names were NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, LLY, INTC, UNH, and BRK.B. Overall, this was a broad, dollar-heavy MOC buy program concentrated in mega-cap technology, with secondary strength across cyclicals, health care, and financials.
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Tuesday, June 9, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 129 / 95
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 215 / 254
• NYSE TRIN: 1.46
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.96
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the week ending Friday, June 5, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 30% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 285 / 201
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 854 / 484
• NYSE TRIN: 0.77
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.48
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, June 9, 2026
The day followed the Daily Trade Strategy well: overnight targets were hit precisely, the regular session produced a clear Cycle Day 3 failure-and-reversal, and the room found several useful opportunities by staying focused on D-Levels, BLT setups, prior-day references, and the broader short alignment.
Opening Context
David noted that both overnight targets from the Daily Trade Strategy were fulfilled:
Downside target near 7390
Upside target near 7445
This gave the room early confirmation that the plan and key levels were working.
The tone was educational, with early discussion around trading mindset, language, and not fighting oneself during the session.
Early Session Strength and Target Fulfillment
At 9:36 AM, David called out the 7465 target on deck.
Shortly after, he marked it as fulfilled.
Price then moved into the D-Level area and tested the prior high / 7476 handle.
The key lesson was to observe how price behaved at important levels instead of assuming continuation.
BLT and Short Opportunities
Slatitude39 took a reverse BLT around 9:53, using the base of the candle and a horizontal reference line.
David acknowledged it as well played.
John South also had a strong BLT short, which David highlighted.
These were good examples of traders using structure, not impulse, to enter trades.
Cycle Day 3 Failure and Reversal
David later described the session as a textbook Cycle Day 3:
Price pushed above the Cycle Day 2 high.
The breakout failed.
Price reversed sharply.
The next cycle decline began to unfold.
This became the main lesson of the day: a failed push above prior highs can become a powerful reversal signal.
Range Runner Day
David identified the session as a Range Runner Day.
The sandbox was noted as 7415–7445 before the move expanded lower.
The room observed a roughly 100-point drop, showing how significant the D-Level rejection became.
David stayed short aligned after returning from a break, looking for the next opportunity near the lower D-Level.
Midday D-Level Long Attempt
David later called attention to D-Level long targets.
The bounce took time to develop, leading to the room’s running “Sea Biscuit” joke.
Eventually, Slatitude39 noted that Sea Biscuit finally “got with the program,” suggesting the long idea eventually produced some response.
The lesson was patience: valid setups may take time, and traders still need confirmation.
Prior-Day Low and VWAP References
Blibby71 pointed out a PDL retest from below near 7355.
Later, the room noted:
PDL cleared / converted
VWAP test
These references helped frame the afternoon recovery attempt and showed how prior-day levels remained important throughout the session.
Closing Action
Near the close, David posted a major imbalance:
MOC BUY $6 Billion
He described the late move as a masterful repricing of long inventory.
His closing lesson was that the market is a wealth distribution game, moving capital from weak hands to strong hands.
Key Takeaways
The Daily Trade Strategy levels were highly effective, with overnight targets precisely fulfilled.
The best opportunities came from respecting structure:
D-Levels
Prior highs
Prior-day low
VWAP
BLT setups
The strongest trade theme was the Cycle Day 3 failed breakout and reversal.
Positive trades included:
David’s fulfilled 7465 target
Slatitude39’s reverse BLT
John South’s BLT short
David’s short alignment during the range-run decline
The main lesson was to follow the roadmap, stay aligned with market behavior, and avoid fighting the dominant move.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Market Tone
US index futures are sharply lower as traders digest geopolitical risk, CPI concerns, and AI-sector selling.
VIX is higher, signaling increased hedging demand.
Gold and Bitcoin are weaker, reflecting broad risk-off positioning.
Oil is slightly higher but remains choppy on Middle East escalation risk.
Key Catalyst: CPI
CPI at 8:30am ET is today’s main macro event.
A hotter print could revive Fed-hike fears and support the dollar.
Traders are likely to remain tactical until the data is released.
Geopolitical Risk
US strikes against Iran following the downing of a US helicopter are pressuring sentiment.
Oil volatility remains elevated as markets weigh escalation risk versus containment hopes.
Headline risk is likely to remain a major intraday driver.
AI & Tech Pressure
AI leaders are under pressure, with the SOX index down nearly 2%.
Super Micro Computer fell after announcing a $7B equity offering.
Oracle earnings after the close add another volatility point for NQ.
NQ remains the most sensitive index given AI-sector weakness.
Macro Sentiment
Bank of America warned traders to take profits as bear-market signals build.
The IMF warned that global markets are unprepared for multiple shocks.
These warnings add to the defensive tone and may cap intraday bounces.
Today’s Calendar
8:30am ET: CPI
10:30am ET: Crude Oil Inventories
2:00pm ET: Federal Budget Balance
After Close: Oracle earnings
ES Technicals
Tuesday’s ES range exceeded 250 points, pushing the 5-day average daily range to 156.25 points.
No clear whale bias, with overnight large-trader flow light and mixed.
Former uptrend channel support near 7505/10 is now key resistance.
The 50-day MA near 7242.75 remains loose support after Tuesday’s strong bounce.
A short-term downtrend channel is providing structure amid elevated volatility.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7400/90, 7515/05, 7583/93, 7700/05
Support: 7177/67
