S&P 500 Price Targets Are Going Higher

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Our View

I know some people say that the MrTopStep Trading Rules 101 have seen their day, but I have to disagree. The one we are talking about now is the PitBull’s rule about looking for a low the week before the monthly expiration — and in this case, the June Triple Witching. 

I asked Rich Miller — AKA HandelStats — to run a study on how often this trade actually works. He said there is a 60% chance Thursday or Friday will be up the week before the expiration. After that, he said the stats are positive for Monday and Tuesday, down Wednesday, up Thursday, but down on Friday. 

Let’s face it, Powell said exactly what I started saying in late 2023 — that the market was getting ahead of itself about lowering rates six times in 2024 and I stayed on it all year and the Fed finally came clean about the prospects of higher rates for longer. 

After the demise of my S&P desk during the 2008 Credit Crisis, the US Government's total debt stood at about $10 trillion at the end of FY 2008. Of that, approximately $5.8 trillion was debt held by the public in the form of Treasury securities. Today the public debt of the United States is around $34.8 trillion.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Treasury market has more than doubled over the past 10 years, from $12.5 trillion in 2014 to $27 trillion at the end of May. Going forward, federal debt could grow to $48 trillion by 2034. For comparison, the Fed spent $4 trillion in the credit crisis. Now the government is spending $1 trillion every 100 days. 

I had a favorite saying during the Credit Crisis: “Wall Street had a big party and we weren’t invited, but we got the bill to clean it up.”