Is There a Shift Taking Place?

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Our View

As expected, volume dropped and despite the gap up and drop, it was a very choppy day. I had a conversation with HandelStats on Sunday afternoon and I told him I thought we could rally, but I had no idea the ES would rally so much. I figured it was going to be a quieter, low-volume chop and it was. Handel has been on fire lately, and his levels are below in the Lean. 

Today is day one of the Fed’s two-day meeting. 

According to the CME’s Fed Funds outlook, there is a 99% probability that rates are left unchanged. When Powell speaks on Wednesday, it will be about how much and when they will lower interests. 

I don’t pretend to be an economist, but for the first time since late last year, prices at the pump are now higher on a year-over-year basis and are on a trend that looks fairly solid. Have you looked at  chart of crude oil — /CL — lately? 

It's not good for consumers heading into the spring and it's a problem for the White House and Fed officials who are hoping to say inflation is over. I have news for you, it's not over, in fact, it's far from over. Just look at what $150.00 gets you at your local grocery store. Food prices are increasing, not going down in price. Like Jannet Yellen recently said, rates are never going back to Covid-19 levels.