Setting The Stage: Jobs 8:30AM ET

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Our View

Are ES and NQ holding steady, or about to crash? I don’t think they’re headed for a crash, but they could dip, especially with today's 155K non-farm payroll whisper estimate. I saw a headline saying, "Job data will be essential to the size of the rate cut in September." Given Powell’s recent focus on the labor market, many traders believe today's US payroll report will determine whether the Fed cuts by 25 or 50 basis points this month. I’ve given in to the idea of a few rate cuts before year-end, but a 50 bp cut? I just don’t see that happening, even with a disappointing jobs report.