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Is the CL High In?
There is no doubt about it, the rollover combined with the headlines made it a long, choppy, thin trading day.
I found it interesting that our local crude oil expert, Reverie, said it is entirely possible we have seen the CL high for the year. I asked him why, and he said he could attribute it to a few things, particularly refinery maintenance season, which means they buy less crude to process while they are down.
But the more important thing is that we have just been flooded with bullish news and crude couldn't rally above the Thursday high, and we are in the low-demand part of the year where prices are less sensitive to supply shocks.
I have too much respect for Reverie to fade him—he's a full-time oil trader that has made a living from trading, and I have seen too many great calls to fade him—but how do they cool things down in the Middle East to make that stick?
Our View
Want to see something frightening? Of course you do! It's the 10-year note futures (ZNZ26) vs. the 10-year note yield (TNX) 1-year comparison chart.
They say the yield rose to the highest level since 2023, but the real story is that it rose to the highest level since 2007.
The last time this happened was on Oct. 23, 2023, when the 10-year yield also reached 5% in the morning, before selling off to 4.8% by the end of the session, which was a sign traders were waiting for the milestone to be hit before rushing in to buy bonds. The move comes at a critical time, just before the Fed rate decision on Wednesday and after the Labor Department said last Friday that the inflation report held steady at 3.4% in August which increased the odds from 70% to 85% that the central bank will increase its target range on overnight rates by 1/4 bps. As I have always said, I am not an economist, but would it really be a surprise if the Fed raised interest rates this week? I'm not sure about that, as I think the Fed knows it has to do something, but do they want to do it before the midterm elections?
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ESU
ESZ
1 Month ESZ, NQZ, YMZ and QRZ Chart and Net Changes
The ES traded in a 7701.25 to 7661.25 Globex trading range and traded 7680.00, down 47.25 points or -0.61%, on Monday's regular session open.
After the open, the ES traded down to 7667.75, made a few higher lows, rallied 27.00 points up to 7694.75, sold off 33.50 points down to 7661.25 at 9:45, rallied 43.25 points up to 7704.50 at 10:00, and sold off 42.00 points down to 7662.50 at 10:45.
Then the Trump headlines hit, with one saying Zelenskyy agreed to stop hitting Russian oil infrastructure and another with Trump saying, "don't kill the golden goose," and that America's AI and data center boom is happening because of the U.S. commanding global lead.
The ES sold off down to 7663.00 at 11:15, rallied up through a series of higher lows, and pushed 57.75 points up to a high of 7720.75 at 12:30.
From there, it made a series of lower highs and sold off down to 7700.25 at 3:45, traded 7701.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed flat before flipping to $2.2 billion to sell, sold off down to 7690.25, and traded 7692.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded 7689.50, traded 7691.50, and settled at 7692.75, down 34.50 points or -0.45%. The NQ settled at 29,449.50, down 234.75 points or -0.79%; the YM settled at 52,861, down 141 points or -0.27%; and the RTY settled at 2916.20, down 9.80 points or -0.33% on the day.
In the end, it was exactly like I said in the OP: beware the headlines. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, most of the damage was done on Globex. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume 1.925 million ESU and 1.996 million ESZ traded, with a big percentage of the volume coming from the roll.
MOC Recap: Late Sell Program Hits Wholesale Levels Before Reversing Into the Close
The MOC opened with a relatively modest $214 million sell imbalance, with $3.32 billion to buy against $3.54 billion to sell. The dollar lean was -51.6%, while the symbol lean was actually +51.4%, showing that the early imbalance was highly rotational rather than a broad-based sell program. NYSE leaned more negatively at -55.9%, while Nasdaq stood out with a $269 million buy imbalance and a +54.8% dollar lean.
Selling accelerated quickly. The imbalance increased to $973 million at 15:53 and $1.24 billion at 15:54 before briefly improving to $239 million at 15:55. Then the real sell program arrived. At 15:56 the MOC surged to $2.29 billion to sell with a -69.2% dollar lean, followed by $2.25 billion and -69.3% at 15:57. Those readings below -66% qualify as wholesale-style selling rather than normal rotation. Importantly, the symbol lean remained near the 50% area, suggesting the pressure was concentrated in larger-dollar names rather than indiscriminate selling across the entire market.
Sector flow reflected that split. Energy was the clearest wholesale seller at -75.3%, led by a $133.7 million CVX sell imbalance. Health Care was also firmly offered at -69.4%. On the other side, Consumer Discretionary reached +66.9%, qualifying as wholesale buying, helped by a $176.3 million AMZN buy imbalance. Technology remained strongly rotational despite a $269.8 million net buy: NVDA led buyers at $327.8 million, followed by AVGO at $149.6 million, AAPL at $95.2 million and ORCL at $83.4 million, while QCOM sold $128.4 million and AMAT sold $127.8 million.
The late sell wave ultimately faded. The imbalance improved from $2.29 billion at 15:56 to $940 million at 15:59 and just $266 million to sell at 16:00. The close was therefore defined by a concentrated wholesale sell program that peaked late, but was substantially absorbed before the final print.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Friday, September 11, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 55 / 265
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 72 / 402
NYSE TRIN: 0.90
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.83
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, September 11, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 40% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 23% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 27% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 25% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 107 / 443
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 219 / 608
NYSE TRIN: 0.45
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.38
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
No Earnings Today.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Market backdrop
U.S. equities closed lower Monday as rising oil prices, surging Treasury yields, and renewed concerns around AI valuations weighed on risk sentiment.
The S&P 500 fell 0.48%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.56%, with semiconductor stocks leading the decline.
Brent crude pushed above $109 intraday, adding to inflation concerns.
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% before settling near 4.96%, keeping pressure on risk assets ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.
Fed and macro focus
Markets are pricing in a 25 bp Fed hike, with attention centered on the statement, Powell’s commentary, and the updated dot plot.
Higher yields, a firmer U.S. dollar, and continued strength in crude remain key macro headwinds.
Rising energy costs and signs of weaker consumer balance sheets could add pressure to discretionary spending and corporate margins.
Tech and sector rotation
AI-linked and semiconductor names were notably weak, with Nvidia down sharply.
Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft outperformed, highlighting continued rotation within large-cap tech.
Financials were also under pressure, with major banks declining as higher funding costs and credit-risk concerns weighed on sentiment.
Oracle fell after announcing layoffs tied to its AI infrastructure expansion, adding to concerns around AI-related spending and balance-sheet pressure.
ES outlook
Volatility picked up modestly, with the ES 5-day average daily range increasing to 71 points.
Whale bias is slightly bearish into the U.S. session open on light overnight large-trader volume.
ES remains within a short-term downtrend channel and has moved back toward the middle of that range.
The 50-day moving average near 7704 remains an important pivot and may act as either resistance or support.
Key ES levels
Resistance: 7785/80, then 7950/55
Support: 7625/20, then 7401/06
Today’s catalysts
ADP Employment Change: 8:15 a.m. ET
Empire State Manufacturing Index: 8:30 a.m. ET
No major earnings of interest today.
Lennar reports Wednesday after the close.
Fed risk, geopolitical headlines, and broader macro developments remain the primary volatility catalysts.
