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- September’s Got Its Gloves Off — Oil Up, Bonds Down and the ES on the Ropes
September’s Got Its Gloves Off — Oil Up, Bonds Down and the ES on the Ropes
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The 9:00 Meeting
I was in and out of the Twin Towers for over 30 years and called on so many companies that I can't remember them all. A guy I knew took his secretary with him on her first trip to New York City. The Monday night before the big meeting, my friend stayed out late and called his secretary early the next morning, asking her to get to the Twin Towers early for their 9:00 a.m. meeting. The first jet hit at 8:46 a.m. She died in the attack as he stood outside and watched everything unfold. I will never forget that day.
Our View
As you know, I'm an optimist at heart, but as September rolls on, statistically, the seasonals go from bad to worse. There are some instances where there are a few days where the ES starts out weak and then rallies, and then there are some years where the ES was down almost every day of the month.
Gas prices hit a record high over the U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend, and tensions rose after Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and the U.S. hit three Iranian ships, and the 25-year anniversary of the September 11th Twin Towers terror attack looms this Friday.
With only 41 trading days, including Election Day itself, until the midterm elections, I do not see an end to the war. What I see is Iran going on the offensive and upping its attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East and trying to sink some of the Navy ships.
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Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
This week I wanted to highlight the Industrial Sector (XLI). Note, that the XLI chart was trading in a multi-month balance area.
XLI
HON
Honeywell built a balance area between roughly 221 and 245 from April into August, with the heaviest volume acceptance up near the 240 to 245 shelf. Price left that balance to the downside in late August and has not been able to reclaim it, trading down to the 205 to 210 area. The departure was accepted, which turns that entire balance into supply overhead.
GE
GE Aerospace built a balance area between roughly 340 and 381 from late June through August, with the volume concentration sitting in the 350 to 360 middle. Price broke the lower edge in late August and is now trading just underneath it around 337. The break is fresh and price is still pressed against the boundary, so the question is whether that 340 shelf holds as resistance or gets reclaimed.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here
The ES traded in a 7764.25 to 7731.25 Globex trading range and traded 7742.25 on the regular session open, down 14 points or -0.18%.
After the open, the ES traded 7739.75, rallied to 7751.00, made 4 lower highs, and sold off 39.25 points down to 7711.75 at 11:30.
At 12:30, Trump tweeted that the market should be going up today based on the jobs numbers, and it's the fake news and stupid people keeping it down and said GDP should be 15-20% instead of 2-4%. The ES rallied 23.50 points up to 7735.25 at 12:45, sold off 22.50 points down to 7712.75 at 1:45, and rallied 13.25 points up to 7726.00 at 3:00.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7713.75 at 4:30 and settled at 7722.00, down 32.75 points or -0.42%; the NQ settled at 29,565.25, up 40.50 points or +0.14%; the YM settled at 53,440.00, down 305 points or -0.57%; and the RTY settled at 2976.60, up 6.60 points or +0.23% on the day.
In the end, it was a long, low-volume chop day. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was on the weaker side but not overly so. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low at 1.148 million contracts traded.
Sunday night into Monday’s abbreviated session, the ES traded in a 24.75-point high-to-low range with only 96,020 contracts traded.
The week ahead has only 8 economic releases, 2 on Monday, no releases on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and CPI and the U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey on Friday. The Q2 earnings season is essentially over. As of Friday’s close, 488 out of 503 stocks in the S&P had reported earnings.
The MOC opened at 3:50 p.m. with a strong $1.9 billion buy imbalance, consisting of $4.6 billion to buy against $2.7 billion to sell. The dollar lean registered +63.1%, while the symbol lean was +56.5%, showing that the early buying was meaningful but not yet a wholesale market-wide program.
The imbalance fell to $1.0 billion at 3:51 before fluctuating throughout the reveal. It rebounded to $1.8 billion at 3:55, dropped to $366.0 million at 3:58, and recovered to $1.1 billion at 3:59. At 4:00, it closed at $743.0 million to buy. The final dollar lean surged to +76.2%, a notably strong buy indication, while the +58.4% symbol lean remained rotational. Only 622 symbols participated at the close, down from 665 at 3:50.
The underlying market was sharply divided. Nasdaq produced a wholesale +80.8% dollar lean and +69.6% symbol lean, finishing with a $2.2 billion buy imbalance. The NYSE leaned -67.4% by dollars, generating $1.1 billion for sale. The S&P 500 showed $1.1 billion to buy, but its -50.5% symbol lean indicated that the buying was concentrated in larger-weighted stocks rather than broadly distributed.
Technology led with $1.1 billion to buy and a +74.5% lean. Consumer discretionary added $532.3 million with a +78.7% lean, while communication services contributed $171.6 million at +71.0%. Energy leaned -70.5%, health care -69.4%, and basic materials registered a wholesale -100.0% sell lean.
TSLA led the buy list at $496.7 million, followed by SNDK at $227.8 million, AAPL at $213.3 million, MSFT at $186.7 million, and NVDA at $183.3 million. The largest sells included XOM at $175.9 million, INTC at $157.8 million, V at $131.8 million, LLY at $111.1 million, and MU at $84.2 million. Overall, the close reflected concentrated Nasdaq and mega-cap buying against broad NYSE rotation and defensive-sector selling.
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Friday, September 4, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 52% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 47 / 90
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 92 / 147
NYSE TRIN: 1.34
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.94
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, September 4, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 47% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 152 / 308
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 313 / 545
NYSE TRIN: 0.76
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.74
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Market backdrop
US equity futures are under pressure as rising oil prices revive inflation concerns and add to an already fragile macro backdrop.
Brent is near $99 and WTI above $94 following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
Reduced tanker flows through Hormuz point to continued physical tightness and could keep crude prices elevated.
Higher oil, firmer bond yields, and a stronger yen are keeping traders cautious ahead of key US CPI and PPI data later this week.
Global macro
Global risks remain elevated as geopolitics, trade friction, and tighter monetary policy weigh on sentiment.
Japan’s strong wage growth supports expectations for further BOJ tightening and has helped strengthen the yen.
China reported a 25% year-over-year jump in August exports, signaling solid external demand while potentially adding to trade tensions.
US manufacturing remains vulnerable to higher energy costs, tariffs, and supply-chain disruptions.
US calendar
NFIB Small Business Index: 6:00am ET
Consumer Credit: 3:00pm ET
Casey’s General Stores (CASY) reports after the close.
ES setup
Friday’s action continued to respect the short-term downtrend channel, leaving 7665/70 as the key upside breakout zone.
A sustained move above 7665/70 would put the intermediate-term uptrend channel near 7861/66 in focus.
The 50-day moving average at 7628.25 remains loose support and could come into play today or tomorrow.
Bears have significant room to work to the downside from a trendline perspective.
Key ES levels
Trendline resistance: 7651/56, 7865/70
Trendline support: 7612/15, 7600/05, 7484/89, 7290/95, 7090/95
Positioning
No whale bias this morning.
Overnight large-trader volume was too light to be significant.
