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- Semi Sellers Keep Leaning on the Tape, But I’m Still Buying the ES Dips
Semi Sellers Keep Leaning on the Tape, But I’m Still Buying the ES Dips
Danny Riley
July 06, 2026
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There is a very distinct pattern that has been showing up: early-day rallies that fail as the semiconductors are aggressively sold. The SOX, or PHLX Semiconductor Index, has fallen 11.71%. Since the 7648.75 high on 6/15/26, there have been 6 failed attempts to trade above 7600. I still keep thinking the ES can go higher, and it does look like it’s in a big back-and-fill pattern.
Both the ES and NQ have been down 9 of the last 12 sessions. Over the same period, the ES is down 15.25 points or -0.20%, but the NQ has lost 757.75 points or -2.50%. Are the two futures starting to level off? It’s hard to say because the semiconductors are constantly being sold. I think the larger question is whether the selling is pricing in higher interest rates? It looks that way to me.
I don’t like fading Jeff (see Guest Posts below), but I still think the ES is going up. The problem is when the ES and NQ gap higher and the selling starts showing up in the Nasdaq. Look at the NQ price history. It looks like 2 or 3 sessions up and then 2 or 3 down, and the ES price history isn’t much better.
Our lean: I can’t rule out selling the early rallies, but I’m still buying the pullbacks.
Friday’s Short Session
The ES had a 7576.75 to 7520.25 Globex trading range and opened Thursday’s regular session at 7555.00, up 13.25 or +0.18%.
After the open, the ES traded up to 7568.00, sold off down to 7551.50, rallied up to 7593.75 at 9:50, traded down to 7581.25, rallied up to a lower high by 1 tick at 7593.50 at 10:10. It then sold off to 7522.50 at 11:05, rallied 25.00 points up to 7547.50 at 11:35, sold off 55.75 points down to 7491.75 at 3:05, rallied 19.00 points up to 7510.75 at 3:40, and traded 7512.00 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $14.2 billion to buy, the largest chunk of that coming from the NQ which opened with $11.6B to buy.
The ES rallied up to 7534.00 at 3:59 and traded 7526.25 on the 4:00 cash close, down 29 points or -0.38% on the day.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7534.75 and settled at 7528.25, down 15.75 points or -0.20%. The NQ settled at 29,556.00, down 538.25 points or -1.79%, the YM settled at 53,183, up 515 points or +0.98%, and the RTY settled at 3,014.20, down 20.90 points or -0.69%.
In the end, it was another big day of selling the semiconductor stocks and Nasdaq, and buying the Dow, as the U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, down from May and roughly half the 115,000 jobs that economists expected. This eased fears of rising interest rates after the weaker jobs report put the odds of a July increase at roughly 20%, down from about 30% before the report, according to CME Group.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it sold off from its early highs as the NQ fell but held above the 7500 level. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was surprisingly high at 1.76 million contracts traded.
During Friday’s abbreviated holiday session, the ES closed 28.75 points higher at 7557.00, the NQ closed up 347.75 points and settled at 29,901.75, the YM closed down 21 points and settled at 53,162, and the RTY settled at 3,023.50, up 9.30 points.
Jeff Hirsch - Stock Trader's Almanac
Stocks Fizzle After July 4th
The bulls that run before the holiday don't show up after it. Volume stays thin as the long weekend clears out, and the buying dries up. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have all averaged net losses on the first trading day after July 4th.
Recent years have shown some improvement, but it's still no time to press the long side. Over the 15 years since 2011, trading right after Independence Day has been mixed and lackluster. The day after the 4th, DJIA has declined 11 times in 15 years — down 73.3% of the time, averaging −0.03%. S&P 500 has slipped 9 times (higher just 40.0%), though its average holds fractionally positive at +0.06%.
NASDAQ carries the best of the group, up 53.3% of the time the day after and firming as the week goes on. Russell 2000 is the weakest of the four — down 60% of the time the day after and averaging losses on both of the first two sessions past the holiday (−0.27% and −0.42%). Only by the third day out does the tape steady across the board.
The pattern holds: the pop comes before the 4th, the fizzle comes after.
The MOC opened with a major buy imbalance, showing $14.232B net to buy across all markets. That was not a small or mixed open; it was a large, buy-side program from the start. The dollar lean was +93.9%, which is a clear wholesale buy signal, while the symbol lean was +65.0%, just under the 66% wholesale threshold. That means the dollars were heavily concentrated to the buy side, but the symbol count was slightly more rotational than the dollar read.
The strongest concentration was in the Nasdaq, which opened with $11.583B to buy, a +99.8% dollar lean and +93.1% symbol lean. That is as close to a full wholesale buy imbalance as you will see. The S&P 500 also showed a powerful buy program at $13.606B, with a +94.6% dollar lean and +70.4% symbol lean, confirming broad institutional buying in the index names. The NYSE was buy-sided too, but less extreme, with $2.649B to buy, a +78.8% dollar lean and +60.1% symbol lean.
The imbalance peaked right away and then steadily faded. From $14.232B at 15:51, the total dropped to $13.767B at 15:52, $12.566B at 15:53, $11.480B at 15:54, and then broke sharply lower to $3.744B at 15:56. By the 16:00 close, the MOC had been cut down to $1.774B to buy, still positive, but far below the opening print.
The buy side was led by mega-cap technology and Nasdaq growth: NVDA, MU, SNDK, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, and META. The sell side was much smaller and included LLY, ALSN, CRH, HIG, DLR, PFE, ALL, PB, WMB, XOM, and CMG.
Sector-wise, Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, and Consumer Staples all showed strong buy leans, many above the 66% wholesale threshold. Energy was more rotational with a +58.2% dollar lean, while Health Care was buy-sided in dollars but less convincing by symbols. Overall, this was a tech-led wholesale buy MOC that faded hard into the close but never flipped sell.
Replay: Trey Talk
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Thursday, July 3, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 47% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 52% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 175 / 22
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 321 / 103
• NYSE TRIN: 1.00
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.96
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Thursday, July 3, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 338 / 144
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 712 / 357
• NYSE TRIN: 1.40
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.99
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
DTG Room Preview – Monday, July 6, 2026
Futures Tone
US index futures are pointing higher as traders return from the holiday-extended weekend.
Markets are trying to build on last week’s record-setting gains.
Leadership remains outside of semiconductors, with healthcare, financials, and industrials showing strength.
Tech & Semiconductor Watch
Bank of America warned that speculation has reached extreme levels, increasing the risk of a sharp snapback.
AI-linked semiconductor names remain under pressure after recent profit-taking.
Weakness in names like MU, AMAT, and AMD highlights fragility in the momentum trade.
Traders should watch high-beta tech for reversal signals.
Oil & Macro Impact
Oil prices are easing as Strait of Hormuz flows normalize and OPEC+ signals additional supply.
Softer crude may reduce inflation pressure and support consumer and transportation sectors.
Lower energy volatility could also influence inflation-linked macro positioning.
AI Infrastructure Theme
SK Hynix is preparing a major US listing tied to AI demand, which could test investor appetite for large AI-related equity issuance.
Big Tech’s growing need for electricity remains a structural concern as data-center demand rises.
Grid constraints or regulatory headlines could pressure mega-cap tech and spark cross-sector rotation.
Today’s Calendar
S&P Global Services PMI: 9:45am ET
ISM Services PMI: 10:00am ET
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at an ECB conference: 11:00am ET
No major corporate earnings of interest today.
Key Market Triggers
A strong ISM Services print could support tech and financials.
The 10-year yield reaction remains the key cross-asset signal.
A break above 4.52% in the 10-year yield could trigger intraday volatility.
VIX behavior should also be watched for directional confirmation.
ES Technical Picture
ES remains in a sideways coil below 7600.
Resistance sits near the intermediate-term downtrend channel top at 7596/91.
A breakout could open the door to a retest of 7700.
Failure below resistance leaves room for a move toward the 50-day MA near 7480 and potentially 7399/94.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7596/91, 8060/65
Support: 7399/94, 7248/43, 7200/95
