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Sell the Rips, Watch the Notes, and Don’t Count Out the PPT
Danny Riley
May 20, 2026
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The US seized an Iranian-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, and it seems like Tehran and Washington remain pretty far apart. To be honest, I still think Trump has backed himself into a corner and that we could see the war start up again. Pakistan sent 8,000 "advisors" to Saudi Arabia under its mutual defense pact, and Iran has been hitting Dubai again.
I had a long talk with Parker Schwartz (the PitBull’s son) at lunch yesterday. He is a very smart man who is much more studied and conservative than his dad. I asked him if he thought the bonds were going to crash further, and he said yes. Then I asked him about the dollar, and he said it's going to go down, it's just a matter of when. I kind of knew the answers, but was hoping Parker would offer a silver lining, but that didn't happen. I have to admit, I am concerned.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
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The ES traded in a 7440.75 to 7380.00 Globex trading range and opened Tuesday's 9:30 ET regular session at 7386.75, down 39.50 points or -0.53%.
After the open, the ES traded 7380.00, rallied to 7396.00, and sold off 26.00 points down to 7370.00 at 9:45. Shortly after the drop, I posted this:
IMPRO: Dboy: [9:52:06 AM]: "Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this shit could take off to the upside."
The ES rallied 32.00 points up to 7402.00 at 9:56, sold off 54.25 points down to 7347.75 at 10:20, rallied up to 7374.00 at 10:40, and sold off down to a new low at 7354.25 at 10:45. It then rallied up to 7387.75, sold off down to another higher low at 7355.75, chopped in a sideways-to-up, back-and-fill price action, and rallied 59.50 points up to 7415.25 at 1:15.
From there, it sold off 16.00 points down to 7399.25 at 1:50, rallied up to a lower high at 7411.75 at 2:10, and sold off down to 7380.00 at 2:55. It rallied 20.50 points to 7400.50, sold back off down to 7377.50 at 3:26, rallied back up to 7389.50 at 3:30, and then sold back off down to 7375.00.
The ES traded 7377.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.1 billion to sell, sold off down to 7365.00, rallied up, and traded 7377.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After the 4:00 cash close, the ES traded 7379.50, dropped 10 points down to 7369.50, and settled at 7372.50, down 53.75 points or -0.72%. The NQ settled at 28,899.25, down 196.75 points or -0.68%; the YM settled at 49,430.00, down 338 points or -0.68%; and the RTY settled at 2572.00, down -1.10%.
Over the Last 3 Sessions:
The ES has lost 147 points or -1.96%.
The NQ has lost 763.50 points or -2.57%.
The YM has been down 2 of the last 3 sessions for a total loss of 695 points or -1.39%.
The RTY has lost 116.20 points or -4.05%.
The 10-Yr note (ZNM26) has been down 6 of the last 7 sessions, losing 1-13/32nds, or -1.40625 points, or -1.27%.
The 30-yr T-Bond (ZBM26) has been down 6 of the last 7 sessions, losing 3-12/32nds, or -3.375 points, or -2.98%.
In the end, it was the third day of losses in which every rally failed. In terms of the ES's overall tone, the index markets caught a "bid" when the bonds rallied off the lows and oil dropped. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was steady at 1.3 million contracts traded.
On Tap Today
9:15 am: Fed Gov. Michael Barr speech
2:00 pm: Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting
After the bell: NVDA earnings
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
🔄 Transition: Cycle Day 3 → Cycle Day 1
Reset…Reload…Re-engage.
CD3 Cycle is a distant bragging-rights memory now as it fades into the rearview mirror.
Inventory clears.
Weak hands get rinsed.
Late shorts exhale like they just dodged traffic.
Late longs quietly Google “career alternatives.”
And just like that —
🎬 Cue the bell.
Brand. New. Cycle Day 1.
This is not continuation energy. This is foundation-pouring, blueprint-drawing, steel-beam-installing energy.
Cycle Day 1 doesn’t chase.
Cycle Day 1 builds.
It’s mechanical. It’s calculated. It tests Average Decline Levels with surgical intent. It forces emotional traders to show their cards early — and usually fold by noon.
This is where professionals:
✔️ Let price come to them
✔️ Let structure define bias
✔️ Let risk dictate size
✔️ Let patience do the heavy lifting
No headline chasing.
No social-media-induced FOMO.
No “this feels like” trades.
Just levels.
Structure.
Execution.
Volatility may expand. But so does our edge — because we operate from preparation, not prediction.
PTG doesn’t panic. PTG positions.
Welcome to Cycle Day 1.
Hard hats on.
Blueprints out.
Let’s build.
The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan
1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force
Think current — not prediction.
When the price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue — we align.
Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.
When structure flips?
Same process. Opposite direction.
No emotion.
No hero trades.
Just flow.
Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave — you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work. 🌊
The market rewards traders who ride momentum, not those who try to predict the tide.
2️⃣ Trade Location, Not Emotion
Where you trade matters more than when you trade.
The PTG approach is built on high-probability locations, not impulsive entries.
We focus on:
Support / Resistance Structure
Stacker Zones
Premium vs. Discount
ATR Pullbacks
Liquidity Targets
When price reaches these locations, we engage with purpose — not impulse.
Amateurs chase the price.
Professionals wait for the price to come to them.
Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. 🎯
Patience builds consistency.
Consistency builds confidence.
Confidence builds longevity.
The Bottom Line
Pillar #1: Trade with the dominant force
Pillar #2: Trade from advantageous location
Master these two principles and everything else becomes execution.
Simple. Structured. Repeatable.
The Toolbox Matters — But the Hand Using It Matters More
The PTG Trader Toolbox isn’t just well-equipped — it’s built for every market condition you’ll encounter.
Yes… even that strange, rarely-used wrench you didn’t know you’d eventually need.
But here’s the truth:
Your edge doesn’t come from using everything.
Your edge comes from mastering the right tools — the ones that align with your plan, your personality, and your execution style.
Inside the PTG Member’s Area, the resources run deep.
Dozens of educational videos.
Real trade breakdowns.
Live market walkthroughs.
Each one designed to compress your learning curve, eliminate guesswork, and help you build confidence through clarity — not noise.
And when the chart starts moving fast…
When volatility rises…
When emotions try to sneak into your decision-making…
PTGDavid is in the room.
Calm.
Focused.
Professional.
Guiding traders through structure.
Grounding decisions in probabilities.
Keeping the community aligned with what actually matters — price, structure, and discipline.
Because in the end…
Tools don’t make traders successful.
Mastery does.
🎯 Cycle Day 1 Focus
Scenarios for today’s trade
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 7375 ±5
Upside objectives:
• 7385
• 7395
• 7405
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 7375 ±5
Downside objectives:
• 7365
• 7355
• 7345
📊 Key Reference Levels
• PVA High Edge: 7390
• PVA Low Edge: 7360
• Prior POC: 7378
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
The 3:50 p.m. MOC window opened with a sell imbalance of $1.196B for sale, with $2.112B to buy against $3.309B to sell. The tone stayed firmly negative through the run, reaching peak pressure at 3:55 with a $3.310B sell imbalance. From there, sell pressure eased but never flipped, closing the sequence at 4:01 with $756M still for sale. The dollar lean remained sell-biased throughout, mostly between -61% and -72%, indicating a broad institutional sell program rather than a mild rotation.
The most notable market signal was the NASDAQ lean. At 3:51, NASDAQ showed a -71.8% dollar lean and -62.5% symbol lean, putting it closest to wholesale selling conditions. The S&P 500 also leaned heavily for sale at -61.0% dollars and -56.1% symbols, while All Markets showed -61.0% dollars and -51.5% symbols. NYSE was less severe on dollars at -54.8%, but its symbol count was nearly neutral at +50.3%, making that part of the tape more rotational.
Sector flow showed the pressure concentrated in growth and rate-sensitive groups. Information Technology carried the largest sector sell imbalance at -$408.50M, with a -66.7% dollar lean, making it a notable wholesale-style sell sector. Health Care was also aggressively sold at -$283.02M and -70.6%, while Real Estate showed the strongest negative sector lean at -76.1%. Financials were heavy as well, down -$214.31M with a -65.5% lean, just shy of the -66% threshold.
On the buy side, Materials stood out with +$65.36M and a +66.8% dollar lean, while Basic Materials was a clean +100% buy, though on only one symbol. Major buy imbalances included MU, AMZN, GOOGL, QCOM, TMO, NVDA, and BRK.B. The sell side was led by TSLA, VZ, INTC, KLAC, MA, VLO, NEE, COF, DASH, and PM. Overall, this was a sell-biased close led by technology, health care, real estate, and NASDAQ-linked pressure.
Fair Values for May 20, 2026:
SP: 18.70
NQ: 85.61
Dow: 70.86
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Tuesday, May 19, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 33% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 40% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 37% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 29% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 69 / 122
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 95 / 267
• NYSE TRIN: 0.81
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.75
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the week ending Friday, May 15, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 26% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 30% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 285 / 214
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 745 / 521
• NYSE TRIN: 0.47
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.45
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, May 19, 2026
Tuesday’s PTG session emphasized patience, structure, and confirmation as the market shifted from early weakness into a constructive bullish recovery.
Opening Context
Overnight DTS targets at 7440 and 7385 were both tagged.
Rising Treasury yields added pressure early in the session.
Early Session
PTGDavid defined the trading “Sandbox” as 7375–7405.
The room focused on balance, support confluence, and avoiding chase trades.
Key Turning Point
Bulls needed to reclaim the prior low before control could shift.
Once price reclaimed the prior low and moved above VWAP, David said bulls were “in full control.”
The next target became the Cycle Day 1 Low at 7409.25.
Positive Trades and Framework Wins
The 92.65% Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled.
ATR, D-Level, Cycle Day 2 Violation Level, and the low zone all aligned.
This confluence helped identify a strong support/reversal area.
Afternoon Levels
David identified 7414 as a major historical POC.
He expected it to act as initial resistance.
Main Lessons
Wait for structural confirmation before shifting bias.
Confluence creates higher-confidence trade locations.
VWAP acceptance helped confirm the bullish shift.
Discipline and patience were rewarded.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Macro Focus
Markets are centered on NVDA earnings, FOMC minutes, and US/Iran risk.
April FOMC Minutes due 2:00pm ET; crude inventories at 10:30am ET.
Earnings
NVDA reports after the close, with focus on AI demand, data center revenue, margins, and chip competition.
Other key names: ADI, LOW, TGT, TJX premarket; INTU after the close.
Geopolitical
US/Iran tensions remain a key headline risk as Trump threatened renewed strikes.
China and Russia deepened cooperation, while China called for ceasefire and negotiations.
AI / Tech
Google unveiled a major AI Search upgrade at I/O, adding Gemini-powered conversational and visual search features.
ES Levels
ES remains in a short-term uptrend channel but is testing support at 7332–7337.
Resistance: 7497/7502, 7745/7750
Support: 7332/7337, 7220/7225
