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Sell Programs Exhausted, Bulls Reloaded
Danny Riley
November 11, 2025
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Our View
In the trading dictionary I depend on, one word stands out the most: oversold. According to Goldman Sachs, total positioning has shifted meaningfully. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen one of the largest short build-ups in recent years.
One of the things I’ve always followed is what I call “too long” or “too short” price action. I knew after the SPU (big S&P contract) sold off for 3 to 4 days, they were usually a buy. I also knew anything down 8 to 10 sessions was a screaming buy. But the rule I truly mastered came during my time doing UBS's S&P futures index program trading business.
The key to being a successful bank program trader wasn’t how good the trader thought he was, because it all came down to me. If I was slow and the cash moved down fast, it was my fault. When the programs made $150k in 20 minutes, he “did it”—but in reality, it wasn’t him at all. It was me picking up the program trader, while I had a $20 billion hedge fund in one ear telling me to sell 600 or 800 contracts, and me repeating the order back to the hedge fund trader, and the UBS trader hearing all of it
Most of the time when the sell programs hit, the futures would drop quickly and trade at a discount of 1.00 to 1.50 points under fair value. But levels would move up and down, and he could hear me say, “I sold 250, working 500 to sell.” Like many patterns I followed, this one had a very high accuracy rate. And no one ever pointed it out or talked about it but me.
The first and second sell programs would go smoothly. But as the cash fell, all the other desks started jumping on the phones. It was simple, there were more bids around the pit now for sell programs. After the third sell program, and with me still hitting my own program bid, the cash would fall apart.
If I still had part of the sell order, I might get the fourth program off. But the fifth sell program was almost impossible to execute. By that time, every desk in the S&Ps doing program trading was putting in bids in the pit. The locals were nice and short. If there were 1.2k SPUs bid for, I’d tell the PitBull to buy them now—and up they would go. I'm not kidding: it worked 85% of the time. Within 15 minutes, the futures were back to where I did the first sell program.
Now… what’s that got to do with this? ES or SPY cash—it doesn’t matter. This type of price action still exists every day. When the ES sell programs become exhausted, the futures rally. And when selling eclipses—as Goldman said—and the news shifts, so do the programs.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
Guest Post: Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
SPY (30 min)
Price action with the SPY can be interpreted as a balance day. A strong bounce after Friday’s selloff. Friday had multiple distributions the LVA (664.50 area) seemed to hold today’s action. That level will act as a key to being either bullish or bearish going forward. If prices cannot trade above expect prices to possible test the lows from Friday.
XRT (30 min)
Omitting the gold and gold miners the only sector, surprisingly, that seemed to relatively outperform was the Retail Sector (XRT) It basically closed at the level prior to Friday’s selloff. Prices being accepted above the 84.70 area should start bullish swing move.
Tom Incorvia began his career in financial services in 1987 and has amassed over three decades of experience navigating the complexities of the markets. His career spans both the buy-side and sell-side of the trading desks, having served as Vice President of Equity Trading and later as General Partner of a hedge fund. This dual perspective has provided him with a unique and well-rounded understanding of market behavior.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here.
Market Recap
The ES made a low on Globex at 6772.00, then rallied up to 6823.50 and opened Monday’s regular session at 6817.75, up +0.92%. After the open, the ES traded 6813.50 at 9:36, rallied up to 6835.50 at 9:45, pulled back to 6823.75, and rallied again to 6835.25, marking the RTH high. It then sold off to a new low at 6782.75 before rallying back up to 6821.75 at 12:05.
From there, it traded down to 6808.25 at 12:15, then rallied sharply to 6849.00 at 1:50. After a small pullback, a big buy program hit, pushing the ES through its previous high of 6853.75 and up to 6864.75 at 3:17.
After the high, the ES sold off to 6854.00 at 3:32, rallied to 6865.00, and traded 6864.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed a small imbalance building to $1.4 billion to buy around 3:55. It then traded up to 6866.00, sold off a few points, and traded 6857.00 on the 4:00 cash close, settling at 6857.25, up 103.75 points or +1.54% over yesterday’s close.
The NQ settled at 25,720.75, up 548.75 points or +2.21%. Bitcoin settled at 106,560, up 1.91%, silver settled at $50.40, up 4.7%, and the yield on the 10-yr note settled at 4.127%.
In the end, it's a big game of hocus pocus—one day it looks horrible, and the next day it looks great. In terms of the ESs’ and NQs’ overall tone, the index markets reacted positively to government reopening news. In terms of the ESs’ overall trade, volume was high at 1.5 million contracts but lower than Friday’s 2.04 million.
MiM
Market-on-Close Recap – Monday, November 10, 2025
The market-on-close (MOC) imbalance opened with mixed signals across sectors but transitioned into a firm rotation rather than a broad directional move. Early readings showed total sell pressure of roughly $2.39 billion against $2.27 billion in buys, a net imbalance of about $115 million to sell, which quickly narrowed and flipped positive before tapering into the close. The 15:55 peak saw $3.52B in buys versus $1.71B sells — a strong intraday buy surge that eased into $479M by 16:01.
Sector data showed a clear bifurcation: Consumer Defensive (+87%), Healthcare (+58%), Energy (+62%), and Financials (+61%) attracted notable buy imbalances, while Technology (-68%), Real Estate (-76%), and Industrials (-51%) led the sell side. This combination pointed to a defensive and value-tilted MOC flow rather than a risk-on chase.
On the symbol level, NVDA (+$265M), AAPL (+$68.9M), and PLTR (+$113.7M) dominated Technology flows despite the sector’s aggregate sell lean, showing internal rotation between software and semiconductors. AMZN (+$35M) and HD (+$46M) represented consumer participation, while JPM (+$46M) and V (+$43M) stood out in Financials. The heaviest negative lean came from Technology (-68%), indicating wholesale distribution, while sectors near ±50% such as Communication Services (+51.6%) and Industrials (-51.6%), reflected more balanced rotation.
At 15:51, the S&P 500’s subset showed a modest +$68.7M net buy, with NYSE running +$103M to buy, offset by NASDAQ’s -$334M sell. The weighted leans — NYSE +51.7% versus NASDAQ -59.7% — encapsulated a clear large-cap tech unwind offset by traditional sector accumulation.
Overall, the MOC session reflected a rotation out of growth and into defensives, with heavy profit-taking in Technology offset by consumer and healthcare demand — a rotational rather than directional close.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for November 11, 2025:
SP: 22.68
NQ: 100.27
Dow: 89.75
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, November 10, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 146 / 66
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 187 / 133
NYSE TRIN: 1.24
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.17
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, November 7, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 36% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 223 / 242
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 345 / 608
NYSE TRIN: 0.82
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.49
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
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Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, November 10, 2025
Yesterday was a bullish session dominated by trend continuation and clean technical levels, with ES pushing into and fulfilling 3-Day Cycle Targets on Day 1.
Key Positive Trades
Overnight Long Setup triggered early from ES 6780–6785, hitting multiple targets up to 6830. Manny managed this for a solid move despite tightening stops.
RTH Resistance Sell – ES 6831–6835: Manny executed a well-timed micro short off the rejection, pulling +5. He noted it was risky but traded it with size discipline.
LB&F Setup (ES 6811–6815): This trade played out intraday as a mini liquidity grab, giving a solid +10 and +16/17 on the runner.
Support Buy – ES 6796–6800: Triggered after 11:30 AM with a sweep and reclaim. Manny caught +5, +10, +15, and +20 targets before calling it a day due to illness.
End of day: PTGDavid noted the 3-Day Cycle Targets on both ES (6856.42) and NQ (25691.70) were fulfilled by Day 1, showing strong bullish momentum.
Lessons & Commentary
"Golden Touch" Manny showed the value of planning setups ahead of time under calm conditions and then executing them even when not feeling 100%.
Micro contracts were used effectively for risk control and emotional management.
Over-management of stops was self-critiqued—Manny acknowledged leaving profit on the table by not sticking to original plans.
Discussion around inventory correction, VWAP tests, and ON volume structure added depth to execution logic.
Traders discussed psychological edges, including chasing, managing FOMO, and knowing when not to push due to external factors (health, mental clarity).
End of Day
Session closed at highs with little MOC action until a late minor buy imbalance.
David called it a "Running of the Bulls" day—clean, directional, and strong throughout.
Watch for potential overnight follow-through.
Strong day with structured setups, solid follow-through, and cycle levels met early.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, November 11, 2025
Macro & Headlines:
Govt Shutdown Bill Progress: Senate passed a stopgap funding bill with Trump’s approval; House vote expected today. The bill funds the government through Jan 30, secures Ag/Vets funding, restricts federal worker firings, and includes a promise for a healthcare vote.
Market Impacts: IPOs delayed pending House vote; SNAP assistance still in limbo.
Commodities: Gold/silver rising on Fed cut hopes. WTI crude below $60 with weakest contract spread since Feb, signaling easing tightness.
Tariffs: US-Switzerland nearing a deal to reduce tariffs from 39% to 15%.
SoftBank: Q2 profit doubled on OpenAI valuation gains; exited $5.83B NVDA stake.
Premarket Earnings: ALC, AU, NBIS. After-close: OKLO, SE.
Fed Watch: NFIB index at 6am ET; Gov. Barr speaks in Singapore.
Volatility: Elevated; ES 5-day ADR at 109.
ES Levels: Resistance at 7052/57, 7131/36; Support at 6670/75. Price mid-channel with 50DMA (6732.50) below as soft support.
Whale Flow: Leaning short into the US open on moderate large trader volume.
