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S&P Overload
Danny Riley
June 17, 2025
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I especially like buying the gap-downs, and while I did buy Sunday night’s open, I bought the ES to cover a short. Around 8:55 AM ET, a Wall Street Journal story said the Iranians want to negotiate a deal. The ES was trading around 6067.25 and rallied up to 6109.00 by 10:20AM ET. Iran then responded with this headline:
#IRAN IRANIAN ADVISOR TO IRGC COMMANDER SAYS "WE ARE READY FOR A LONG WAR AND HAVEN'T YET MADE STRATEGIC USE OF MISSILE CAPABILITIES"
I’m going to say it like it is: the ES and NQ didn’t give a shit about Iran’s response and just kept going up, rallying a total of 106 points from Sunday night’s Globex open—totally overlooking the high intensity of the Israel/Iran conflict.
It’s almost like the headline news algos totally control the markets. It took a while to digest the news, and the ES sold off down to the 6980 level around 3:20, then rallied a little as the 3:50 imbalances came out $1.6 billion to buy, trading up to the 6096 area.
In the end, in terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm until late in the day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low. When you take out the ESM/ESU spread, total outright volume was 885k.
WTI crude futures fell 1.7% to $71.77 a barrel. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher despite a $13 billion auction of 20-year bonds that attracted solid demand from investors. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 4.452%, gold prices retreated 1% after settling Friday at a new record high, and the dollar index closed flat on the day.
During Operation Desert Storm, from August 1990 to January 1991, the S&P 500 sold off 18%, but recovered swiftly after the war started, gaining 20% between January 16 and June 8, 1991, as the conflict was short-lived and oil prices stabilized. By the end of the war, the S&P 500 had regained its losses and continued to rise, with a 26% increase within a year from its lowest point.
In early 2023, during Gulf War II, the S&P fell only 5.5% and settled up 28.68% on the year.
There are 12 economic reports over the next 3 sessions, including Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. As you can see, the effects of the Gulf Wars I and II were that the S&P initially sold off and then reversed the losses, making some large gains. I’m not sure why the markets aren’t reacting to the Israeli/Iranian war, but Pakistan has stated it would retaliate with nuclear weapons against Israel if it used them on Iran. Trump has left the G7 early and requested that the National Security Council be prepared in the Situation Room upon his return from the summit. It's also only 22 days until July 9, when reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect after a 90-day pause.e out
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The ES market commenced the day following an overnight Globex session that saw the futures open at 6001.00. Early trading activity led to an overnight high of 6077.25 at 8:20 AM ET, marking a significant upward move from the Globex open. The Globex session concluded at 6067.50, representing a gain of 66.50 points, or 1.11%, from its open.
As the cash or regular session opened at 9:30 AM ET at 6067.25, price action immediately began to ascend. The market pushed higher, reaching an intraday high of 6109.00 at 10:30 AM ET, an advance of 41.75 points from the regular session open. This strong morning performance then faced resistance, leading to a notable decline that found support at an intraday low of 6087.25 by 1:10 PM ET, shedding 21.75 points from the 10:30 AM high.
Following this dip, the ES futures regained momentum, driving to a subsequent higher low of 6101.00 at 1:30 PM ET, an increase of 13.75 points from the 1:10 PM low. This upward trajectory was again interrupted, as prices pulled back to another intraday low of 6080.50 by 3:20 PM ET, indicating renewed selling pressure into the mid-afternoon. The regular session closed at 6092.00, marking a 24.75 point or 0.41% gain from its open. The Cleanup session, from 4:00 PM ET, saw a brief rise to 6096.50 at 4:00 PM ET, before the market ultimately settled at 6091.00 for the full session close. This final print represented an overall increase of 90.00 points, or 1.50%, from the Globex open. Compared to the prior day's cash close, the ES futures ended the regular session up 59.50 points from the previous cash close.
The overall market sentiment for the day leaned decisively bullish, characterized by strong advances from both the overnight and regular session opens. Despite periodic pullbacks, buyers consistently stepped in, preventing deeper corrections and propelling prices higher throughout the trading day. The full session volume was light.
A key factor influencing the afternoon session was the Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data. Approaching the 3:59 PM mark, the dollar percentage showed a significant bias, with 74.9% favoring buy orders, amounting to a total buy imbalance of $2,083 million. The symbol imbalance also reflected a buying bias at 62.9%. While this did not reach the ±66% threshold for an extreme imbalance, it indicated a strong predisposition towards buying interest.
Technical Edge
MrTopStep Levels:
Fair Values for June 17, 2025:
SP: 57.06
NQ: 238.84
Dow: 348.34
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, June 16, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 69% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 82% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 81% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 88 / 57
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 175 / 117
NYSE TRIN: 0.81
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.39
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 13, 2025
NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 67% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 37% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 168 / 70
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 385 / 195
NYSE TRIN: 0.69
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.29
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, June 16, 2025
Yesterday was a solid trading day with an emphasis on identifying structure early, capitalizing on bullish momentum, and maintaining discipline through the afternoon. The team shifted to the September contract and focused on Cycle Day 1 developments.
Morning Highlights:
The session began with strong bullish momentum after overnight action reclaimed the 5960 level and surged past the 6020 initial target.
PTGDavid emphasized an initial buy lean, looking for strength unless a clear bear structure emerged.
The team effectively targeted zones such as 6055–6060 for potential buy responses, with multiple successful hits on Open Range Targets (TGT 1 and TGT 2) for both ES and NQ.
A PKB (Pullback Breakout) pattern highlighted by blibby71 developed as anticipated and was later confirmed by PTGDavid, reinforcing the importance of having a rule-based approach and recognizing structure shifts.
Key Lessons and Insights:
Early trade execution during the morning session proved critical, as the afternoon slowed significantly (“Afternoon Snoozer” per PTGDavid).
The importance of mental capital preservation was stressed — avoiding low-probability trades in the afternoon and instead taking the time for personal well-being.
The day provided educational reinforcement on how to identify trend structure changes and the value of deliberate practice, as noted during community interactions.
Closing Notes:
Price settled near the mid-VWAP, described as the "Romulan Neutral Zone" — indicating balance post-morning move.
Contract rollover is ongoing, with the September contract now in focus.
Community engagement remained lighthearted yet informative, with geopolitical news being discussed without disrupting trading focus.
Positive Trade Recap:
Bullish continuation in the morning gave multiple long setups.
ES and NQ both hit their Open Range targets, confirming strong directional structure.
PKB pattern recognition added confidence and clarity to mid-day decisions.
Overall, a disciplined and productive Monday with strong market read-throughs, especially in the first half.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Geopolitical Update: President Trump and UK PM Starmer finalized a US/UK trade deal, focusing on aerospace and auto tariffs. Trump seeks similar agreements with Canada and the EU during the G7 summit. However, he left the summit early due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, calling for an evacuation of Tehran amid ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
Fiscal Policy & Legislation: Senate Republicans introduced a tax bill preserving Trump-era tax cuts, adding new breaks like tax-free tips. It offsets costs by cutting clean energy and Medicaid support. The bill also raises the debt ceiling by $5T and boosts chip manufacturing incentives, while omitting contentious House proposals like SALT cap changes and new foundation taxes.
Market Data & Earnings: Focus today is on Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production, and Housing Index data. Jabil (JBL) reports premarket earnings.
Market Technicals: Volatility remains elevated with the ES 5-day average range at 84.25. Trendline support at 6011/14s held overnight; 200-day MA sits at 5958.50. Resistance seen at 6307/12s. No strong whale bias noted as overnight volume was bullish but light.
