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Roll Over and Lean On
Danny Riley
September 15, 2025
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MiM and Daily Recap
ESZ
ESU
The overnight Globex session in the December ES contract (Z) opened at 6649.50 and initially traded higher, marking a high of 6649.50 at 19:15 before fading into the night. Selling pressure pushed the contract to a low of 6641.50 at 22:15, representing an 8‑point pullback (-0.12%). A rebound carried prices back to 6649.50 at 01:45, but that recovery was short‑lived. Sellers pressed again, and by 04:15 the ES marked a new overnight low of 6631.25, down 18.25 points (-0.27%) from the earlier high.
From there, a steady bid entered the market. Buyers stepped in around the European morning, lifting the contract to 6648.50 just before the cash session open at 6645.00. After a weak opening bar, the market initially chopped higher, reaching 6654.25 by 10:55. However, a decent dip followed, sending ES down to 6641.75 by 11:45. Buyers reasserted themselves midday, carrying the index to 6662.75 at 14:50, setting the day’s high. That marked a 21‑point rise (+0.32%) off the midday low.
The afternoon turned more two‑sided. By 15:40, the ES dropped sharply to 6639.25, a 23.5‑point decline (-0.35%) from the high. A brief bounce into 15:50 at 6653.75 failed, and the market weakened into the close. The regular session ended at 6644.25, essentially flat, down 0.75 points (-0.01%) from the open and off 2.75 points (-0.04%) from Thursday's cash close.
Together, total volume for both contracts summed to just over 1.04 million contracts, with 947,617 in the U contract and 92,827 in the Z. Going forward, volume will begin shifting heavily into the December contract as rollover continues.
Market tone was mixed throughout the day. The early Globex weakness gave way to a solid rally, but the cash session proved choppy with lower highs into the afternoon. The inability to sustain momentum above 6660 left the market range‑bound, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
The Market‑on‑Close imbalance showed $1.3 billion to buy, with 63% of the dollar flow on the buy side. However, the symbol count leaned heavily negative at -56%, highlighting that fewer issues participated on the buy side, even as notional dollars skewed positive. Notably, semiconductors led the buy imbalances with AMD (+$78.7M) and NVDA (+$43.1M), while healthcare names like UNH (-$24.2M) and ABT (-$13.6M) weighed on the sell side. Sector‑wise, technology and healthcare attracted net buy interest, while consumer defensive and energy skewed negative.
Overall, sentiment leaned neutral‑to‑slightly bearish as buyers failed to press their advantage despite supportive imbalance data. With Fed week underway, traders appear reluctant to extend risk until Wednesday’s policy decision clarifies the path forward.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 15, 2025:
SP: 59.94
NQ: 250.39
Dow: 361.24
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, September 12, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 34% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 37% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 36% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 130 / 25
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 287 / 60
• NYSE TRIN: 0.78
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.42
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending September 12, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 360 / 71
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 755 / 214
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77
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Calendars
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This Week’s Important Economic Events
Today’s Earnings
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Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Friday, September 12, 2025
Friday’s trading session was a classic Cycle Day 2, with price action exploring both the upper and lower boundaries before ultimately settling near the key Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6592 — a true display of "Precision Squared", as PTGDavid aptly noted in the close.
Key Themes of the Day
Capital Preservation Friday: David emphasized a cautious approach, with the day focused more on defense than aggressive offense.
Price Structure: The session opened weak, with overnight lows at 6575, followed by a snap-back buy response. The bear scenario was outlined below 6592, with targets into 6575–6565.
Line in the Sand (LIS): 6592 was today’s LIS and proved to be an important magnetic level throughout the session.
No major breakout but strategic scalps and disciplined protocol-based setups were the order of the day.
Highlighted Trades & Technicals
Pullback Buy Zone (Manny)
First Setup: Buy zone at ES 6580 → Dip to ES 6572 showed absorption with reclaim attempts.
Stops: 6566
Targets: 6584–6592
Second Setup: Prime buy at ES 6542 → 1–3 min reclaim above 6546–48.
Stops: 6536
Targets: 6560 → 6572 → 6584
ETH Low Reclaim Setup
Manny's Level: ES 6576 (SPX 6584) as a spike flush/reclaim zone.
Reclaim Entry: 6576–6578
Targets: 6584 → 6588 → 6594 → 6600
Stops: 6569 or time-based
These setups rewarded traders who stayed patient, especially as the tape whipsawed post-University of Michigan sentiment data, which came in soft (55.4 vs. forecast 58.0).
Lessons & Insights
Rules vs. Protocol: Excellent discussion between PTGDavid and Manny.
Rules are binary (yes/no).
Protocols are behavioral patterns and adaptive frameworks — critical for evolving with the market.
Defense is Key: Quoting Paul Tudor Jones — “The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.”
Emotional Management: Manny shared how his S.L.P. (Stop Loss Protocol) and other frameworks were designed to counter emotional decision-making.
Trader Psychology & Resources
Great conversation around mental game coaches like Dr. Andrew Menaker and Rande Howell, with multiple traders recommending 1-on-1 work and referencing free resources on YouTube.
Rollover Reminder
PTGDavid confirmed that the group will roll to the December (Z) contract on Monday.
Community Notes
Charts were shared throughout the morning by David and Manny, showing live examples and technical structure.
There was also some light Friday banter, with traders supporting each other on setups and technical tool usage (Sierra Chart sounds, Synergy mouse/keyboard software, etc.).
Closing Notes
David signed off early for a noon meeting, reinforcing the idea of Capital Preservation FRYday.
The market respected the technical roadmap, and 6592 acted as a gravitational close level, capping a disciplined and textbook session.
Summary
A low-stress, structured trading day focused on discipline, technical precision, and capital preservation. No need to force trades on a Friday — those who stayed patient and followed protocols saw solid setups play out cleanly. Great end to the week!
