Rally Is Long in the Tooth, but Bulls Have Control

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Up until 2:30, the ES had a 13.25 point trading range. That expanded to 23 points when the future sold off down to a new low at 5305.75 and rallied up to a new daily high at 5328.75 at 4:00. 

If you have been bullish, the slower trade has been working in your favor. For the bears though, it's been a slow death. The current slowdown is generally something we see going into June and July…but this started in April. 

The old adage of “selling in May and walking away” has not worked so far, while rising inflation and slower GDP growth has thrown a monkey wrench into the Federal Reserve's plans to start cutting interest rates. It wasn’t that long ago that the market was pricing in six rate cuts in 2024. I on the other hand was quick to say there was no way the Fed could cut rates because of the potential for sticky inflation and higher interest rates. 

When you bundle this together I still think there are significant headwinds for equities even as they make new all-time contract highs…but right now, none of this matters.