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Quiet Before the Cut
Danny Riley
September 16, 2025
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Our View
Today’s Recap:
The ES opened high on Globex and opened Monday’s regular session at 6666.75. It rallied up to 6681.25, then sold off down to 6672.50 at 11:21. It rallied up to a lower high and double top at 6679.25, sold off down to 6665.25 at 1:18, rallied up to another higher low at 6677.00 at 2:00, sold off down to 6663.25, and then traded up to 6674.75 at 3:48. It traded 6674.50 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $631 million for sale, then traded up to 6679.75 and settled at 6679.25 on the 5:00 futures close.
In the end, it played out exactly like I said it would in the Lean—a two-way street.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, there was this crazy on-again, off-again ES vs. NQ rotation. The NQ was the leader but would rally while the ES wouldn’t move, and then there were times when the ES was bid but the NQ didn’t move.
In terms of the ES’s overall trade, outright trading volume was low due to the rollover. When you take out Globex and the ESZ/ESU spreads, total outright day session volume was higher—1.7 million contracts traded, with 1 million of that coming from the spreads. If you take out the Globex volume, total day session volume drops to the low 600s—that’s not very much, all things considered.
On Tap
8:30 AM – Retail Sales, Import Price Index
9:15 AM – Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
10:00 AM – Business Inventories and Homebuilders Confidence Index
Earnings – For 2Q S&P 500, 99% of companies have reported. Today, 7 companies are reporting, all with market caps under $300 million.
Treasury Auction – $85 billion T-bill auction
Our View
There has been a lot of talk that the U.S./China tariff talks were not going to go well, but it seems like things are moving in a positive direction.
Traders have been gearing up for the last few weeks for tomorrow’s Fed rate decision, which is now 100% expected to be a 1/4 bps rate cut. The PitBull is saying there’s a good chance they cut 0.50 bps, but that’s where things went wrong last year—so I feel strongly that’s not going to happen.
I know I called for a quieter day yesterday, but we should be quieter today.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
MiM and Daily Recap
ES-U
ES-Z
ES-Z
ES Futures Recap - Monday
The ES futures market saw another active session on Monday as the September (U) contract continued to give way to the December (Z) contract, with most of the trading volume shifting into the latter. During contract roll periods, reported volumes can be misleading because closing positions in the U and opening the same in Z adds two transactions to the tape. For this reason, traders need to interpret volume cautiously this week.
The Globex session in the Z contract opened at 6645.00 and pressed up to 6669.00 by 18:45 ET, before retracing to 6642.50 at 20:05 ET. A rebound took prices steadily higher until the European open, which saw prices drop about 15 points. By 5:20 ET, the contract had found its pace and solidly pushed into the open at 6666.75. Higher prices were still coming post-open as the bulls ran the tape up to 6681.25 at 11:00 ET, setting the high of the day. That move represented a 33.50-point advance (+0.50%) from the prior swing low.
After tagging the morning high, the contract pulled back to 6672.50 at 11:20, then staged another push to 6679.25 at 12:15. A deeper retracement followed, with ES falling to 6665.25 at 13:20 and then, after a 11 point bounce, fell to a lower low of 6663.25 at 14:40. Buyers attempted a late-session rally, carrying prices to 6680.50 by 15:55, but selling pressure resurfaced into the close. The regular session finished at 6679.75, adding 13.00 handles from the open and 35.50 (0.53%) points from the previous day's close.
In terms of sequence, the Z contract showed a clear upward bias overnight into the morning, hitting successive higher highs, before momentum waned in the afternoon. The regular session carved out a series of lower highs and lower lows into mid-afternoon before stabilizing. Despite the intraday swings, ES maintained a firm close, aided by its earlier gains.
Total combined contract volume reached just over 698,000 contracts in the Z contract and 433,000 in the U contract, though again the rollover process inflates these figures somewhat.
Market tone leaned constructive overall, with early strength carrying through into a positive close, albeit well off the session highs. The intraday swings reflected two-way trade as profit-taking and roll mechanics contributed to choppier conditions. Still, the market held onto its net gains, suggesting underlying demand remains intact.
On the imbalances, the Market-on-Close data showed a notable -62% dollar imbalance skewed to the sell side, equivalent to about -$570M at 15:50 ET. The symbol percentage ended at -56.5%, also heavily tilted to sellers, though not breaching the -66% threshold for extreme conditions. Sector flows revealed concentrated selling in Technology (-$165M), Financials (-$186M), and Consumer Cyclicals (-$128M), with particularly large negative imbalances in names like AVGO (-$22B paired notional), HD, and LLY. On the buy side, Oracle (+$12.19M) and GEV Utilities (+$9.63M) stood out.
The afternoon sell imbalances capped the day’s rally and helped enforce the late pullback from highs. Nevertheless, ES managed to close in positive territory, extending last week’s gains. With the contract roll nearing completion, traders should watch for cleaner volume signals later in the week and remain attentive to the Fed’s upcoming decision, which is likely to set the tone for the next leg of trade.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 16, 2025:
SP:59.42
NQ: 247.63
Dow: 355.97
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, September 15, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 170 / 38
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 420 / 85
• NYSE TRIN: 0.80
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.65
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, September 12, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 360 / 71
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 755 / 214
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, September 15, 2025
Overview:
The trading session began with positive momentum from the overnight session, particularly in the ES and NQ, which both achieved their initial target zones early. The day presented a few solid trade opportunities—primarily in the morning—before devolving into what PTGDavid aptly described as a "meat grinder" heading into the lunch session. Afternoon trading remained choppy, consistent with expectations during OPEX, rollover, and FOMC week.
Positive Trades Highlighted
CL (Crude Oil) Open Range Long:
✅ Target 1 filled early
✅ Later recap showed two targets hit and a successful trailing stop
➤ A clean and disciplined execution with favorable risk/reward.NQ Opening Range Long:
✅ Target 1 filled at 10:07 AM
➤ Took advantage of early bullish momentum.ES Discount Longs (Morning Session):
✅ Executed well off initial pullbacks and value zones
✅ Premium trades later aligned with bearish shift, targeting VWAPManny’s Afternoon Long (PB at 1-1):
✅ Executed over an hour before 2:30, final target hit after a slow grind
➤ Demonstrated patience and confidence in the setup despite chop.
Lessons & Insights
Morning Session Dominance:
PTGDavid emphasized that best trade opportunities continue to be in the AM session, aligning with past sessions’ patterns.Choppy Environment Awareness:
Multiple traders noted the low-conviction, grinding action of the midday session. PTGDavid and Manny both advised caution, reinforcing that sideways chop is not a trading opportunity—it's a risk.Mental Framework & Trader Psychology:
Powerful community conversation around “Little Me” inner dialogue, mindset, and psychological edge in trading.
Traders like slatitude39 shared breakthroughs in detachment from outcomes, leading to clearer execution.
Manny and others reinforced the importance of repetition, mindset, deliberate practice, and zooming out to weekly/monthly performance.
Technical Insights:
Manny highlighted how well the 720/750 tick charts worked in backtesting over the weekend.
Use of 1-1 setups, A4/A10 ranges, premium/discount shifts, and CD3 range projections were key tools mentioned throughout the day.
Market Context Reminder
Quad Witching + Rollover + FOMC Week = High volatility, low conviction, and unpredictable flows.
Several traders, including Ram and Manny, confirmed these conditions often lead to choppy, indecisive action, especially in the afternoon.
Final Notes:
Discipline and risk management were key themes, with traders encouraged to stay out of the chop and focus on well-formed setups.
Flat MOC imbalance added to the hesitation late in the day, with many traders choosing to stay sidelined or manage open positions conservatively.
PTGDavid’s leadership was steady, highlighting setups, confirming trader reads, and reminding the room to stay focused on rules and criteria.
Key Takeaway:
Stick to the playbook, take the AM setups, manage risk in chop, and always listen to the market context. Let the setups come to you—and when they do, execute with confidence and detachment.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Markets & Fed: US stock futures hit new record highs overnight after Stephen Miran was confirmed to the Fed board in a tight Senate vote (48-47). He'll vote in tomorrow's rate decision. Fed Governor Lisa Cook was cleared to remain on the board while her lawsuit proceeds, allowing her to also participate in the decision.
Macro Events: Gold continues to surge (+40% YTD), hitting new records amid expectations for rate cuts. Goldman sees potential for $5,000/oz if even 1% of Treasuries shift to gold.
Policy Shift Talk: Trump is reviving efforts to switch from quarterly to bi-annual corporate earnings reporting. TD Cowen sees a 60% chance the SEC moves forward, but legal and Congressional hurdles remain high.
Data Watch: Key focus today is 8:30am ET Retail Sales. Also on deck: Import Prices (8:30am), Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production (9:15am), Business Inventories & NAHB (10:00am).
Volatility & Technicals: Volatility remains muted ahead of the Fed. However, a front-run move could stir activity. ES sits mid-uptrend with levels to watch: resistance ~6915/20s, support ~6515/20s. Whale flow bias is short into Retail Sales on notable overnight volume.
Other Headlines: US-China trade talks continue in Madrid ahead of a Trump-Xi meeting Friday, which may include TikTok discussions. No notable earnings today.
