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Quad Witching Sparks $9.5B MOC Buy Surge as ES Hits Fresh Records
Danny Riley
September 22, 2025
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Recap
I’m not going to go into all the highs and lows—we all know that the ES and NQ jumped to their 26th and 27th new all-time highs on Thursday, heading into the ‘troubled’ September Quad Witching and the ‘switch’ or rebalance. As I said in the chat, there would be big volume printing and pops and drops, and so far, so good, the ES just made a new low at 6687.25 at 11:30.
IMPRO: Dboy (Fri: 11:50:55 AM): the other side of this is the NQ has been firm all day, and the ES was trading around the 6697 level
Most of the patterns we follow during the September Quad Witching involve selling gap-up opens or early rallies, and that worked too. But after the low, the ES regained its footing. You could see the buying fly back into the NQ.
When I posted that in the chat, I was concerned about a rally because the NQ never really sold off and the ES quickly moved quickly off the lows. At 11:15, the ES traded up to 6711.25, and from there we saw a series of small pops and higher lows that pushed the ES up to 6721.25 at 3:00. After some sideways price action, the ES climbed to 6726.75 at 3:27, pulled back to 6720.00 at 3:45, and then rallied again.
The ES traded 6723.75 as the 3:50 NYSE imbalance showed a record $9.5 billion to buy, spiked up to 6731.50 at 3:55, and closed the cash session at 6721.75, up 14.74 points or +0.22%, and settled at 6722.50, up 29 points or +0.43%.
The ES has now closed higher in 12 of the last 17 sessions, or 6 out of the last 10. The NQ settled up 0.98% on Thursday and added another 160.75 points or +0.65% to its two-day total. It has now closed up 14 out of the last 18 sessions. All three major indexes posted weekly gains of more than 1%, and the Russell 2000 of smaller stocks closed down 0.8% Friday after hitting its first closing record in nearly four years a day earlier. #Wow
In the end, the whole psychology of the day's trade flipped because between the September Quad and the ‘switch/rebalance,’ there was nearly $10 billion to buy. In terms of ES and NQ’s overall price action, it followed the same pattern we've seen over the past three weeks: open higher, sell off, then rally again.
In terms of the ESZ’s overall trade, total volume was steady at 1.53 million contracts traded.
"Fed Hell Week" On Tap – Post-FOMC
There are only 10 economic releases and 17 Fed speakers this week. Yes, you read that right—17 Fed speakers, including Powell on Tuesday.
Today:
9:45: NY Fed President John Williams
10:00: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
12:00: Fed Governor Stephen Miran
12:00: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
12:00: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
Tuesday:
9:00: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman
9:45: S&P Flash PMI
10:00: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
12:35: Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Wednesday:
10:00: New Home Sales
4:10: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
Thursday:
8:20: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
8:30: Jobless Claims, GDP, US Trade Balance, Durable Goods
9:00: Existing Home Sales, NY Fed’s John Williams (opening remarks)
10:00: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
1:00: Fed Gov. Michael Barr
1:40: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
3:30: SF Fed President Mary Daly
Friday:
8:30: Personal Income & Spending, PCE Index
9:00: Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin
9:00: Consumer Sentiment (Final)
1:00: Michelle Bowman again
Our View
I would have to ask Marlin for the exacts, but I think the MIM has bought close to $30 billion over the last three weeks. No matter what you or I think, and no matter what our charts tell us, you can't fight the Fed and the cash flows. It's been massively bullish and all part of the trend.
After the rate cut, the homebuilder stocks rallied and pushed the Russell up to a 4-year high. Mortgage rates are at their lowest levels since October 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the national average 30-year fixed rate is now 6.26%, down nine basis points in one week. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate is down to 5.41%. That means if the Fed lowers rates two more times by the end of the year, both the 30-year and 15-year mortgages could be under 5%.
I know there’s a housing glut, but not here in Delray Beach, or in other hot areas across the U.S. I also think at 5%, people will take advantage of the lower rates. The political situation will likely continue to bring in new buyers. Between 2023 and 2024, 467,347 people moved here, and 2025’s pace is not far off.
MiM and Daily Recap
The overnight Globex session opened at 6700.00 and initially pushed higher, reaching 6705.75 at 20:00 before pulling back to 6693.50 at 20:30. After recovering back to 6703.00 at 23:15, selling pressure took over, dragging the contract down to the overnight low of 6679.50 at 03:00. From there, ES staged a steady rebound, climbing all the way to 6712.50 by 09:15, marking the high of the Globex trade. Globex closed at 6707.25, a 7.25-point gain from its open and up 15.00 points, or 0.22%, from the prior cash settlement.
The regular session began at 6707.00 and pulled back to 6696.25 at 09:35. A brief recovery to 6711.25 at 09:50 set up the morning’s lower high, which gave way to a drop to 6687.25 by 11:30. Buyers reemerged mid-morning, pushing ES back up to 6712.25 at 12:45. After a shallow pullback to 6706.75 at 13:10, the rally continued into the afternoon, with a new high of 6731.50 recorded at 15:55. The session settled at 6721.75, up 14.75 points from the open and 29.50 points, or 0.44%, above the previous close.
The cleanup session saw limited movement, opening at 6721.75 and easing down to 6718.00 before finishing at 6719.75, down 2.00 points on the session. Taken together, the full session advanced 19.75 points, a 0.29% gain on the day. Total volume reached 1.218 million contracts, with 984k traded during the regular session.
Market tone leaned constructive throughout the day. The ES spent the overnight hours oscillating within a wide 33-point range before launching into a morning rally that ultimately extended into the afternoon. The higher afternoon peak at 6731.50 capped a session defined by buyers consistently stepping in after dips.
On the OPEX Market-on-Close imbalance data, notables appeared late in the day. The total imbalance printed $7.2 billion to buy at 15:51, with dollar flow leaning 61.4% to the buy side, although the symbol imbalance stood at -51.4%, showing more individual stocks leaning sell. Sector breakdown revealed strength in Technology, with $7.9 billion in net buy imbalances, led by APP, MSFT, and AAPL. On the other side, Financials showed notable sell pressure, with over $1.3 billion net to sell, alongside weakness in Consumer Cyclicals and Basic Materials.
The imbalance supported the late afternoon rally, helping the ES hold gains into the close. Despite some mixed readings across sectors, broad tech strength provided the underlying bid that kept the index positive. The final outcome was a solidly bullish day, with ES closing near its highs and marking a 0.44% gain from the prior day’s settlement. Looking ahead, the strong finish and supportive MOC flows suggest continued upside potential if buyers can defend support levels on early pullbacks.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 22, 2025:
SP: 57.81
NQ: 245.03
Dow: 340.7
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, September 19, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 36% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 157 / 49
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 391 / 74
• NYSE TRIN: 0.79
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.59
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending September 19, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 364 / 76
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 805 / 187
• NYSE TRIN: 0.81
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.88
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Calendars
Today’s Economic Calendar
This Week’s Important Economic Events
Today’s Earnings
Recent Earnings
Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Friday, September 19, 2025
Theme of the Day:
Capital preservation and patience dominated Friday’s session, with traders focusing on consistency, alignment with the dominant force, and selectivity in setups. The room leaned into the Friday mindset — cautious, focused, and deliberate.
Morning Kickoff & Lessons
David set the tone early with the message: “CAPITAL PRESERVATION FRYday” and emphasized PTG’s core directives — trade only “Triple A” setups, always have hard stops, and stay aligned with the Dominant Force.
A powerful mindset post by Yumi was widely discussed and appreciated, reinforcing the importance of statistical confidence, consistency, and trusting your system in live trading.
Traders shared resources and personal takeaways from Yumi's book, which was highly regarded as a strong tool for trader psychology and discipline.
Key Trading Concepts & Lessons Learned
Probabilistic Thinking and consistency were key recurring themes.
Discussion around the A10 signal and its early shift from bull to bear educated traders on interpreting market sentiment transitions.
David and others reminded the group: Live trading is not for testing — it’s for executing a tested plan.
Trade Highlights
Early Opportunities:
Manny shared two early setups — one short, one long, both profitable. After that, he remained flat for a large part of the session, showing discipline.Fib Cluster Behavior:
Manny and others noted multiple bounces off a key Fib cluster (SPX ~6710), which later broke and offered a clean long setup toward 6720–30.Roy's Excellent Execution:
Entered A4 long from 6707.25, targeting 6711 and beyond.
Managed trade excellently with tight risk (2.25 pts for 10+ pt potential).
Target 2 hit at 6715.75, then later 23.75 and finally flat at 20.25 after price shift.
Multiple shoutouts from the room — “Well done Roy!”
Bosier also called a clean short early around 03, managing risk well with multiple entries and exits. Flat at 02.5, showing tight management.
Technical Tools & References
Traders referenced:
Daily Range Calculator (reminder by David)
VWAP and CCI for directional bias
750 tick chart vs 1-min chart correlation
BLT (Barbara Lopez Trade) video from PTG University — discussed as valuable weekend homework
Strong discussion around Premium/Discount zones and reversal setups
Takeaways for Traders
Patience and Selectivity are crucial, especially on OPEX Fridays.
Consistency beats intensity — one good A10 or A4 setup a day can be enough.
Trade with context — always observe Fib clusters, volume areas, and VWAP alignment.
Stay in the zone — don’t think your way out of your edge.
Summary
A successful and disciplined close to the week. The room leaned into mindset, respected Friday's volatility, and focused on high-quality trades. Roy’s long was a standout, and the conversations around setups, psychology, and technicals offered plenty of valuable nuggets for all.