- The Opening Print
- Posts
- Price Hikes, AI, and Private Credit Worries
Price Hikes, AI, and Private Credit Worries
Danny Riley
June 29, 2026
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
Kevin Warsh said in his first Fed meeting that “We’ve dropped forward guidance... I can’t give any forward guidance about what we’re going to do next. The good news is, we’ll be meeting in six weeks.”
He clearly set the stage for what was expected as one rate hike this year, but Bank of America economists recently said they expect the Fed to raise rates three times this year by 25 basis points each and hold steady in 2027, citing in part a hawkish shift in the central bank’s communication that signaled a more proactive approach to fighting inflation.
When you throw in the increased chip prices and AI credit problems... It’s a fact, the markets are spooked. It’s another 4-day work week, which will include the last 2 sessions in June and the massive June end-of-the-quarter rebalance; ADP, ISM, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaking on Wednesday; the jobs number on Thursday; and the ongoing fighting between the US and Iran.
If we have learned anything about the war, it’s that it is far from over, and even when an agreement is finalized, is it really final?
Here is the link to the CME’s 4th of July holiday calendar: CME Trading Hours
I think my mistake has been trying to go with the positive month-end stats too early due to the mammoth rebalance floating around. It’s clear to see my mistake in last week’s MOC selling, especially on Friday when the large institutions were offloading.
I have also tried and tried to explain the uptick in algorithmic, high-frequency, and AI programs, and I have never seen so much as we are seeing today. It’s gotten to a frantic level, and with everything going on this week and more people taking the week off, I expect to see more crazy moves.
Thin to Win Is Coming
Our lean: the ESU was down 2.60% last week and down 3.80% on the month, while the NQU was down 5.1% last week and down 6.21% for the month. As badly as the markets acted on Friday’s close, they both held their respective early lows.
With today and tomorrow being historically the strongest 2 sessions of June, I think the markets can rally. The same question remains: can they hold? I think so. Everyone is short, there are tons of buy stops above 7475, and if the futures can get above there and hold, I think 7540 is possible. If the ES does not cooperate and breaks 7250, that would open the door to 7200 and lower.
We will be using @HandelStats levels all week.
My saying that “these are not our fathers’ markets or charts” could not be truer. The ES had a 7454.25 to 7357.25 Globex trading range and opened Friday’s week 4 options expiration day at 7380.75, down 47.75 points or -0.63%.
After the open, the ES traded 7388.25, sold off 28.25 points down to 7360.00, made 4 higher lows, and then rallied 76.25 points up to 7436.25 at 10:20. It sold off down to 7409.25, rallied up to 7428.00 at 11:00, sold off down to 7409.50, and rallied 50.00 points up to the RTH high at 7459.50 at 11:40.
From that high, it sold off 38.75 points down to 7420.75 at 12:20, rallied 31.50 points up to a lower high at 7452.25, and sold off 47.00 points down to 7405.25 at 2:55. It then rallied up to 7422.75 at 3:15, sold off down to 7410.50, and then ripped up to 7431.75 at 3:47.
It was trading at 7423.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalances showed NYSE $845 million buy, S&P $10.9 billion to sell, and Nasdaq $9.5 billion to sell — never seen anything like that. It traded down to 7418.50, traded up to 7429.25 at 3:55, and then dropped 60.50 points down to 7368.75 in a 1-minute bar before trading 7380.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
Dboy (3:29:08 PM): Going to move big on the close today.
Dboy (3:30:17 PM): Something’s going to happen.
After the cash close, the ES traded back down to 7368.25, rallied 40.50 points up to 7408.75, traded down to 7392.00, rallied 29.00 points up to 7421.00 at 4:25, sold back off down to 7395.25, and settled at 7397.25, down 26 points or -0.35% on the day. The NQ settled at 29,283.00, down 441 points or -1.49%; the YM settled at 52,161.00, down 178 points or -0.34%; and the RTY settled at 3,024.40, down 6.30 points or -0.21%.
In the end, it’s amazing how many points the ES and NQ traded. As I have said before, the CME should just trade in full points in the ES and forget the .25s, .50s, and .75s. In terms of overall structure, both the ES and NQ staged big rallies, but late in the day, the NQ started to weaken before 3:00, and both instruments experienced massive moves from 3:55 all the way to 4:35. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was the lowest in the last 9 sessions at 1.379 million contracts, and if it were not for all the late trade, it would have been a lot lower.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index ($SOX) fell 7.9% to log its worst week in more than a year, driven by broad tech pressure where Broadcom ($AVGO) fell 11%, Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) declined 2.9%, and South Korea’s SK Hynix ($000660) shed 3.3%. Index heavyweight Nvidia ($NVDA) slumped 8.6%, marking its worst week since April 2025 and erasing $439 billion in market value, while Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) also slid 12%.
The widespread price hikes highlighted the mounting pressures confronting end users of memory chips, epitomized by Apple ($AAPL) shares falling more than 6% on Thursday on the stock’s worst single day in over a year, while Microsoft ($MSFT) briefly touched a 52-week low before rebounding. Even SpaceX struggled as shares of Elon Musk’s rocket company gave up their stratospheric gains, briefly dipping below their $150 IPO price on Friday before clawing back to close the session up 0.2% at $153.23 a share.
This Week’s Major U.S. Economic Reports
Monday, June 29: There are no economic reports or Fed speakers scheduled.
Tuesday, June 30: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index crosses at 9:00 a.m., followed by the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 a.m., with both Consumer confidence and Job openings dropping at 10:00 a.m.
Wednesday, July 1: The day kicks off with ADP employment at 8:15 a.m., a speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at 9:30 a.m., the S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m., both ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00 a.m., and Auto sales to be announced.
Thursday, July 2: A busy morning features the U.S. employment report, U.S. unemployment rate, U.S. hourly wages, Hourly wages year over year, and Initial jobless claims all releasing at 8:30 a.m., followed by Factory orders at 10:00 a.m.
Friday, July 3: No economic reports or Fed speakers are scheduled due to the July 4th holiday.
HandelStats number for the day:
The 3:50 MOC opened with $8.789B for sale, with $15.919B to buy against $24.709B to sell across 690 symbols. From there, the sell pressure held through most of the window, staying between roughly $2.3B and $9.1B for sale until a late transition at 3:59, when the imbalance flipped to $1.645B to buy, then expanded into the 4:00 close at $4.837B to buy.
The early read was clearly negative. At 3:51, the all-market dollar lean was -60.8%, while the symbol lean was -50.6%, showing broad selling but still somewhat rotational by symbol count. The biggest pressure was concentrated in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The S&P showed $11.383B for sale, with a dollar lean of -65.8% and symbol lean of -56.9%, close to wholesale sell territory. The Nasdaq was more aggressive, with $9.614B for sale, a -71.9% dollar lean, and -66.0% symbol lean, making it the clearest institutional sell program on the board. NYSE was the exception, showing a $938M buy imbalance and a positive +52.5% dollar lean.
Sector flow was split. Communication Services was the most notable wholesale sell, with a -94.0% dollar lean, led by selling in GOOGL and GOOG. Financials also showed heavy selling at -73.0%, while Information Technology leaned -68.9%, pressured by TXN, SNDK, AMAT, QCOM, MPWR, LRCX, AMD, and CSCO. Consumer Staples was also notable at -66.8%.
On the buy side, Basic Materials was a full +100% lean, though only one symbol. Real Estate showed strong wholesale buying at +88.9%, while Health Care leaned +71.6% and Energy came in at +68.2%. Major buy-side symbols included AMZN, SNOW, ABBV, MSFT, TSLA, AAPL, GILD, and CIEN.
Overall, this was a sell-biased MOC that transitioned hard into the close, with Nasdaq and tech-heavy names carrying the wholesale selling while Real Estate, Health Care, Energy, and select mega-cap buyers helped soften the final print.
Replay: Trey Talk
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, June 26, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 156 / 90
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 334 / 242
• NYSE TRIN: 0.84
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.71
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 26, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 47% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 337 / 243
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 745 / 648
• NYSE TRIN: 0.98
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.66
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
DTG Room Preview – Monday, June 29, 2026
Macro / Geopolitics
US futures are firmer after the White House paused further strikes on Iran.
The pause has eased immediate geopolitical tail risk and supported risk appetite.
Softer oil is helping reduce inflation concerns, though Hormuz traffic disruptions and vessel-attack reports keep headline risk in play.
Tech / AI
AI-trade doubts continue to create a choppy backdrop for tech.
CoreWeave’s reported $99B backlog tied to Nvidia and Microsoft reinforces the longer-term AI infrastructure bull case.
Semis, hyperscalers, and AI infrastructure names remain key sentiment drivers.
Calendar / Volatility
No major earnings or economic reports are scheduled today.
Holiday-week trading may keep volume lighter and volatility more muted.
US markets are closed Friday, July 3, with the June Jobs Report moved up to Thursday, July 2.
ES Technicals
ES remains sideways within its short-term downtrend channel.
The key upside zone is 7445/42, which aligns closely with the 50-day MA near 7452.
A sustained break above 7445/52 could clear the way toward 7600.
If resistance holds, downside focus shifts to 7311/06, with further support at 7215/10.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7445/42, 7609/04, 8015/20
Support: 7311/06, 7215/10
