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Powell Held the Line, Warsh Kicks Over the Fed’s Card Table
Danny Riley
June 22, 2026
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End of the Dot-Plot
I do not think it matters if you like Jerome Powell or hate him. My opinion is that he did his job. In Trump's first term, he pushed Powell to lower interest rates over 100 times, and in Trump's second term, the pressure intensified significantly.
Between early 2025 and mid-2026, prior to Kevin Warsh taking over the Fed helm, Trump ramped up a nearly daily or weekly barrage on social media and in press briefings. He publicly ordered Powell to cut rates dozens of times, frequently utilizing targeted nicknames like "Mr. Too Late" and insisting rates should be slashed to "1% or less."
I don't care who the president is, but I also think whoever it is should not have his foot in the door.
Remember when traders were talking about 6 rate cuts when everyone was reading into fed funds? I was very explicit that they should not go too fast, and in September 2024, the Fed did the jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Then the Fed cut 25 basis points on November 7, lowering the range down to 4.50% to 4.75%.
Then I warned not to cut in December while inflation was rising, but they lowered again by 25 basis points and then called for 3 rate cuts in 2025 and 1 rate cut in 2026. We all know there were no rate cuts in 2025 despite Trump's nonstop Powell heckling, and we all know there are not going to be any rate cuts in 2026.
The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds target rate completely paused at 3.50% to 3.75% for the entire first half of the year, but it wasn't too long ago that there was talk of lowering interest rates by the end of 2026, and now there is talk of raising interest rates by the end of the year.
Let's face it, folks, the war with Iran set off large jumps in inflation in the US and all over the world, and just because crude oil is under $80.00 doesn't mean all is well—it's not.
The US has only 4 weeks left of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and you think gas prices are high in the US? In France, it's over $8.75, and in London, it's $8.00, and some say it's as high as $10.00 a gallon, and their supply has only a few weeks left.
We all know Trump thought he was going to replace Powell with one of his "guys." While Kevin Warsh has a starkly different philosophy, background, and operational style at the Federal Reserve compared to his predecessor, after his first FOMC meeting, there are some stark differences.
Warsh is actively dismantling the practice of "forward guidance"—the era of the Fed dropping breadcrumbs, hints, and explicit signals to the market about its next move. Warsh is engineering a massive cultural and operational shift at the Federal Reserve, ditching the academic, heavily managed "Fed speak" of the Powell era for the direct mindset of a Wall Street practitioner.
By aggressively dismantling forward guidance—slashing the post-meeting statement to a blunt 130 words and refusing to submit a personal "dot" to the policy projections—Warsh is forcing the market to digest economic data on its own without a central bank safety net.
Deeply skeptical of the Fed's rigid, static economic models, he views recent sticky inflation as a policy failure and appears entirely willing to hold rates higher for longer, leaving traders to manage their own risk while he focuses strictly on restoring price stability. While I don't know how this will end up, I agree with the change.
So the US and Iran signed the deal, but Iran is now saying that unless Israel ends the war with Lebanon, they will close the Strait of Hormuz. As of Sunday at 2:00 PM, Iran says it is pausing talks after Trump warned Iran it could strike them for its support of Hezbollah.
The way I see it is: 1) there never really seems to be a concrete deal, 2) why is Trump giving $300 billion to Iran? 3) What about the ballistic missiles and uranium? and 4) what about unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz?
If you asked me if I am surprised things broke down, I would say 100% no. And the other part: the US looks like a total clown show on the global stage.
Our lean: my guess is crude oil comes in higher and we could see some stock market selling, but I don't think it will last. Including today, there are 7 sessions left in the month, and historically, they tend to be very bullish.
However, the 25th and 26th are neutral to bearish because the massive annual Russell Index Reconstitution takes effect on the final Friday of the month, which is June 26.
The last 3 sessions in June moving into the first week of July are historically one of the strongest multi-day institutional buying windows of the entire calendar year. I don't think the ES and NQ are done going up, and 7750 in the ES is on tap.
You can sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks, or just be patient and buy the pullbacks.
Friday’s short session
After a very weak close and late pop Wednesday, the ES jumped up to 7579.75 on Globex and opened Thursday's regular session at 7577.25, up 85 points or +1.12%.
After the open, the ES traded 7581.50, then sold off 46.00 points down to 7535.50. It rallied 19.25 points up to 7554.75 at 9:50, sold off down to a higher low by 1 tick at 7535.75 at 9:55, and then rallied 35.00 points up to 7570.75 at 10:30. From there, the ES sold off down to a higher low at 7541.00 at 11:30, rallied 38.00 points up to 7579.00 at 1:00, and then sold off 30.00 points down to 7549.00 at 3:00. It rallied up to 7572.00 at 3:30, pulled back to 7564.24 at 3:45, traded 7568.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $14 billion for sale, and, surprisingly enough, traded 7564.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
There were a lot more rips and dips, but I'm trying to figure out what is the easiest time frame to use when I write the recap so it doesn't take too much time. A well-known trader who was on the CME floor and ended up on the London LIFFE exchange once told me all people care about is the view and the lean, but I like writing the recap because it keeps me accountable and helps me cement the day's structure.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7583.00 at 4:15, sold off down to 7570.75, and settled at 7570.75, up 78 points or +1.04%; the NQ settled at 30,717.75, up 721 points or +2.4%; the YM settled at 52,008, up 64 points or +0.12%; and the RTY settled at 3,000.00, up 57.20 points or +1.94%, just 24.40 points off its all-time record high it set on June 15, 2026.
In the end, there was a lot of two-way price action, and it was all about buying the dips or pullbacks. In terms of the ES and indices, there was a lot of rotation going on, with the NQ and RTY benefiting the most from the rotations/rebalancing.
In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was steady at 1.76 million. Thursday into Friday's holiday Globex session traded in a 7568.50 to 7520.00 trading range, with 174k contracts traded.
The Week Ahead
Monday: No events scheduled
Tuesday: 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: 10:00 New Home Sales
Thursday: 8:30 Durable Goods, 3rd Estimate GDP, Jobless Claims, Personal Income, PCE; 11:00 Kansas City Fed Survey
Friday: 8:30 Advanced Economic Indicators, Wholesale Inventories, Retail Sales; 10:00 U of Michigan Final Consumer Survey
Trey Oglesby - Swing Room
Watch Trey’s Market Recap and Forward view from last night. Well attended last night and is in the Swing room every Sunday at 5:30 pm preparing for the live Globex open:
Charts from the Trey’s Talk: Download Charts
There was no MIM from Friday.
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Thursday, June 18, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 73% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 120 / 95
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 218 / 217
• NYSE TRIN: 1.76
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.58
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Thursday, June 18, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 52% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 273 / 127
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 609 / 395
• NYSE TRIN: 1.13
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.72
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
DTG Room Preview – Monday, June 22, 2026
Geopolitical Relief / Risk-On Tone
US equity futures are firmer as reports of progress toward a US–Iran diplomatic framework ease immediate geopolitical risk.
Despite Iran’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is shut, tankers continue moving and oil continues flowing.
Crude is trading lower as traders fade disruption risk, supporting risk appetite and easing inflation concerns.
Macro / Fed Backdrop
Faster PCE inflation, following a hot CPI print, keeps the Fed tilted restrictive.
Commentary around Kevin Warsh points to a more hawkish, inflation-focused policy stance.
Sticky inflation could cap ES upside unless tech leadership continues to carry the market.
Tech / AI Leadership
AI remains the key bullish theme.
Hyperscaler infrastructure demand and semiconductor strength continue to support technology stocks.
Tech leadership remains the main offset to inflation and geopolitical concerns.
Earnings / Economic Calendar
No major earnings today.
Tuesday morning: Carnival (CCL) reports.
Tuesday after the close: FedEx (FDX) is the main earnings event.
Economic calendar is light.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 9:00 a.m. ET on the international role of the US dollar.
Volatility / Flow
Volatility compressed sharply during Thursday’s pre-holiday trading.
ES 5-day average daily range fell to 107.25 points from 126.75 points.
Overnight large-trader volume leaned bullish, but was too light to create a meaningful whale bias.
ES Technical Levels
Resistance: 7601/06, 7640/35, 7920/25
Support: 7500/05, 7253/48
The rising 50-day MA at 7413.75 remains loose support below.
