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PITBULL: 3% JGBs, $90 CRUDE AND ES 7700 — SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE
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Where Is The Disconnect: PITBULL: PRINTING MONEY WORLD WIDE
I think topping the list of concerns is the US debt and the 10-year note yield hitting a high of 4.818% on Wednesday, the highest level since November 2023, along with yields in the U.K., Germany, and France also rising. Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond (JGB) yield hitting 3.00% on September 1, its highest level in 30 years and the first time it reached 3% since September 1996.
I remember all the Nikkei futures orders we took at the desk back then as the Nikkei futures tumbled.
NIKKEI 225: 1995 to 1997
When the Nikkei peaked at 22,666.80 on June 26, 1996, Japan's 10-year government bond yield was roughly 3.2%–3.3% around that period; the OECD/FRED monthly average for June 1996 was 3.252%. By December 29, 1997, when the Nikkei had fallen to 14,775.22, the 10-year JGB yield had dropped to roughly 1.9%–2.0%; the December 1997 monthly average was 1.939%.
So during the Nikkei's 34.82% collapse, Japan's 10-year yield fell by roughly 130 basis points, from about 3.25% to 1.94%. That's an interesting contrast with today: Japan's 10-year yield is now around 3%, essentially back to levels last seen around the 1996 Nikkei peak.
On April 7, 2025, when the Nikkei hit a low of 31,136.58, Japan’s 10-year JGB yield was about 1.11%. Yesterday, the 10-year JGB yield was about 3.01%, representing an increase of approximately 190 basis points, while the Nikkei has more than doubled from its April 2025 low to roughly 64,326.
For additional perspective, the 10-year JGB yield averaged about 1.653% in April 2007, compared with approximately 3.01% today. During this time, the Nikkei has more than doubled, gaining roughly 107% in 17 months. Where is the disconnect?
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The ES traded in a 7618.50 to 7658.75 Globex trading range with 223k contracts and traded 7650.25 on Wednesday’s open, up 6.25 points or 0.07%.
After the open, the ES traded 7652.00, and I posted:
IMPRO:Dboy:[9:33:48 AM]: Turn Around Wednesday?
It sold off 8.50 points down to 7643.50, rallied up to a lower high at 7654.50 at 9:45, and pulled back to a higher low at 7645.75.
IMPRO:Dboy:[9:40:34 AM]: NQ price action not negative
IMPRO:Dboy:[10:05:14 AM]: ES buy imbalances all the way up
IMPRO:Dboy:[10:05:47 AM]: the tell was when the NQ sold off and the ES stayed bid.
IMPRO:Dboy: rallied 44.50 points up to 7690.25 at 10:30.
IMPRO:Dboy:[10:46:53 AM]: high is in, pulled back a few points and made a lower high by 1 tick at 7690.00.
IMPRO:Dboy:[10:46:53 AM]: high is in, sold off 12.50 points down to 7677.50 at 11:00. IMPRO:Dboy:[11:21:08 AM]: going back up.
IMPRO:Dboy:[11:21:30 AM]: going to 7700 and traded 7691.25 at 11:30.
The ES sold off 18.00 points down to the VWAP at 7673.25 at 12:30, rallied up to 7681.25, and sold off down to 7670.00 at 1:35.
IMPRO:Dboy:[1:39:13 PM]: buy ES here use a 6 to 8 point stop
The ES rallied 18.75 points up to 7687.75 at 2:15, sold off 15.25 points down to 7672.50 at 3:00, traded back up to 7681.75 at 3:30, and traded 7680.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $500 million to buy and traded 7678.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 7682.75, sold off 15.25 points down to 7667.50, and settled at 7669.25, up 26.50 points or +0.35%. The NQ settled at 29,141.00, up 15.5 points or +0.05%; the YM settled at 53,136, up 308 points or +0.58%; and the RTY settled at 2958.00, up 33.30 points or +1.41% on the day.
In the end, the PitBull was right. He said the ES could rally, and it did, but there were some very big rotations; buy RTY and YM and sell NQ.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, after three down days in a row, the ES broke out of its losing streak with Dell posting blowout AI-server earnings, treasury yields pulled back from multi-year highs, crude oil prices pulled back initially, and jobs data. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.27 million contracts traded.
MiM
The MOC opened with a $513.4 million buy imbalance, but the underlying flow was already showing signs of rotation. Dollar lean was +54.6% while the symbol lean was -52.2%, with 327 stocks for sale versus 357 for buy. The imbalance strengthened to +$806.0 million at 15:53 and remained +$730.0 million at 15:55 as buy orders reached $3.5 billion against $2.7 billion to sell.
That changed abruptly at 15:56. The MOC flipped to a $41.0 million sell and accelerated steadily, reaching -$170.0 million at 15:57, -$465.0 million at 15:58, and ultimately -$565.0 million at 16:00. The closing dollar lean hit -69.5%, a particularly notable level indicating broad wholesale selling rather than simple rotation. The symbol lean finished at -66.3%, also bordering on wholesale sell-program territory.
Sector flow was sharply divided. Financials were bought at +$306.1 million with a +67.0% dollar lean, while Real Estate showed an even stronger +70.1% lean on +$70.9 million. Technology remained a significant +$210.0 million buy, although its +59.7% lean was more rotational. Consumer Staples added $125.6 million but showed a -71.1% symbol lean, highlighting conflicting stock-level participation.
Selling was concentrated in Communication Services at -$117.4 million with a -68.0% lean, Materials at -$75.1 million and -70.0%, Energy at -$81.8 million and -68.8%, and Utilities at -$73.1 million with a very strong -74.3% lean.
On the stock level, the largest buys included V at $179.8 million, LLY $134.7 million, SPCX $133.9 million, KO $104.9 million, SNDK $89.3 million and MSFT $87.4 million. Leading sells included ORCL at $113.6 million, META $85.5 million, MDT $61.9 million, CRM $58.7 million, MA $52.1 million and GOOG $46.8 million.
The key takeaway was the transition: an initially positive but rotational MOC turned into an increasingly broad sell program during the final four minutes.
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, September 3, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 76% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 73% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 59 / 117
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 98 / 240
NYSE TRIN: 0.84
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, August 28, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 158 / 150
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 420 / 371
NYSE TRIN: 0.87
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
BTS are daily generated levels created using a combination of proprietary calculations and AI to define an upper range target and a lower range target, split by a bull/bear line. You receive daily charts along with clear descriptions of each level to help guide your trading.
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Today’s Economic Calendar
DTG Room Preview – For Thursday, September 3, 2026
Premarket Overview
Stock futures are higher as traders look past renewed Middle East tensions and focus on stabilizing yields and improving tech sentiment.
Risk appetite remains constructive, though oil, global rates, and geopolitical headlines remain key intraday volatility risks.
Gold is holding recent gains, while diesel prices have climbed to a four-year post-COVID high, keeping inflation concerns in focus.
The Bank of Japan raised rates, adding to uncertainty around the global rate path and keeping Treasuries and the dollar on watch.
Tech and Earnings
Snowflake (SNOW) surged after beating earnings expectations and raising guidance, supporting software and cloud names.
Broadcom (AVGO) fell as results failed to meet elevated investor expectations, highlighting continued selectivity within AI and semiconductor stocks.
Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) avoided an ad-business breakup, though court-ordered operational changes keep regulatory pressure on mega-cap tech.
Premarket earnings include CIEN.
After-the-close earnings include CPRT and LULU.
Economic Calendar
8:30am ET: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and Trade Balance.
8:30am ET: Fed Governor Waller speaks.
9:45am ET: S&P Global Services PMI.
10:00am ET: ISM Services PMI.
3:00pm ET: Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks.
ES Outlook
ES bounced sharply from trendline support Wednesday, creating a new short-term swing low and providing a bullish technical signal.
ES also held above its 50-day moving average near 7615.25, which remains an important support area.
A new short-term downtrend channel puts 7665/60 as the first key trendline resistance.
A break below 7615/12 would weaken the setup and could reopen downside toward the 7500 area over the next several sessions.
Whale bias is leaning bearish into the 8:30am ET economic releases, although overnight large-trader volume remains light.
September volatility is increasing, with geopolitical headlines, Fed commentary, Treasury comments, and President Trump social-media posts remaining potential volatility catalysts.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7665/60, 7858/63
Support: 7615/12, 7480/85, 7295/90, 7100/95
