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Peace Talks Dead, Oil on Watch, and the Bulls Still Want New Highs
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I have a feeling that Iran no longer wants a peace deal with the US, as it has partnered with Oman after they formed a joint working group to negotiate how to handle shipping navigation, maritime services, and transit costs through the strategic Strait of Hormuz following the brief US-Iran “Islamabad Understanding” truce.
Because they share coastlines along the strait, they wanted to present a united front on managing the waterway. Following the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, tensions have reached a boiling point after IRGC General Mohsen Rezaei threatened to “cut off Trump’s hand” if the U.S. attacks, declaring peace talks officially dead.
The rhetoric coincides with a critical warning from Israeli intelligence exposing an active Iranian plot to assassinate Trump, prompting the Secret Service to upgrade his travel security in response to the direct threats and ongoing military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz.
There are also reports that the US has been telling Israel to stay out of the most recent flare-up, which seems to be at a higher US intensity. Is the US going it alone?
I don’t know, but the last time Israel attacked Iran was June 8, 2026, when it struck Iranian petrochemical facilities in southwest Iran. I don’t know, but this doesn’t seem to be heading toward a peace settlement to me, and now Trump says the US is going to charge a 20% toll for ships entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
The ES had a 7531.00-to-7613.75 Globex trading range and opened Turnaround Tuesday’s regular session at 7579.50, up 16.25 points, or +0.21%, on the day.
After the open, the ES traded down, then rallied to 7588.25 at 9:45, sold off 19.75 points down to the low of the day at 7568.50 at 10:15, then rallied 35.25 points up to 7603.75 at 10:30. It then sold off 33.75 points down to a 7570.00 double bottom at 12:15, rallied 28.25 points up to 7598.25 at 2:15, sold off 11.25 points down to 7587.00 at 3:30, rallied up to 7596.25 at 3:49, and traded 7595.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed NYSE $800 million to buy, S&P $650 million to sell, and Nasdaq $1.43 billion to sell. It then traded 7591.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES drifted in a 3-to-4-point range and settled at 7591.25, up 28.75 points, or +0.37%; the NQ settled at 29,709.25, up 314.50 points, or +1.07%; the YM settled at 52,791, up 27 points, or +0.05%; and the RTY settled at 2,979.90, up 9.50 points, or +0.32%, on the day.
In the end, there is something called extreme sports—well, you can add extreme futures trading to that list. Bond futures (ZBU26) rallied but made a high at 111.20 and settled at 110.12, only up 6/32nds, or +0.17%, well off their high. Crude oil (CLQ26) made a low at 77.84 but settled at 79.23, up 1.20, or +1.54%, well off its daily high at 81.27.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm but failed to close above 7600. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, only 1.065 million contracts traded, the lowest in 21 sessions.
“As Good as It Gets”: JPMorgan Profits Surge as Dimon Rides Wall Street Wave
I don’t know how I did this, but I wrote about the bank earnings for yesterday’s OP but failed to include it. When I put it into AI to do the spell check, I must not have posted it back into the OP.
Basically, I wrote that I thought the 2Q bank earnings would report big numbers and that they would help push the ES to new highs. The banks came out with record earnings—five of the largest US banks, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) (+9.00%), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo ($WFC) (-2.71%), collectively earned more than $49 billion, a 39% jump from a year ago.
Rich Miller - Handelstats :
Today’s levels and numbers: Here
S&P 500 (ES)
****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings
We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos
Note: Trading Room RECAP archives link: PTG-RECAP
🎯 Cycle Day 2 Expectations
🔄 The balance process begins
🎯 Range development starts to take shape
⚖️ Buyers and sellers square off for control
💥 Reversal potential quietly increases
In other words…
*****Cycle Day 1 established the key low @ 7531.50
*****Cycle Day 2 installs the shock absorbers.
This is where the market says:
“Alright… everybody calm down… let’s figure this thing out.”
And for PTG traders?
That’s your cue to shift gears:
✔️ Less emotion
✔️ More structure
✔️ Cleaner, more deliberate opportunities
No need to force trades.
No need to chase moves.
Just stay patient… stay disciplined… and let the market come to you.
⚖️ Cycle Day 2 Objective: Balance… Consolidate…
Stay Patient.
Stay Disciplined.
Stay PTG.
🎯 Scenarios in Play
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stabilize & Reclaim
Acceptance Above: 7590 ±5
Upside Objectives
7605
7610
7615
This signals responsive buying evolving into initiative control.
⚠️ But remember:
This is recovery mode — not dominance yet.
🔴 Bear Case — Continued Rotation / Controlled Reset
Acceptance Below: 7590 ±5
Downside Objectives
7570
7565
7560
This is not panic selling —
This is orderly distribution… the kind that grinds traders down.
📊 Key Reference Levels
PVA High Edge: 7597
PVA Low Edge: 7579
Prior POC: 7590
Cycle Day 1 Low: 7531.50
👉 Important:
These levels cluster tightly — forming a decision zone, not noise.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
— PTG
The MOC opened at a $639.7 million sell imbalance, as $4.5 billion in buy orders faced $5.1 billion in sell orders. The dollar lean was -53.3%, while the symbol lean was +52.5%, with 363 stocks buying against 328 selling. That split indicated a rotational opening rather than a broad wholesale liquidation: fewer large-cap names were responsible for heavier sell dollars, while a modest majority of symbols remained buy-leaning.
Selling intensified quickly. The imbalance moved to -$846.0 million at 15:52, briefly improved to -$163.0 million at 15:53, then expanded to -$1.8 billion at 15:54 and -$2.6 billion at 15:55. After recovering to -$412.0 million at 15:56, pressure returned, reaching -$2.8 billion at 15:58 before collapsing to only -$170.0 million at 15:59. The repeated swings showed aggressive late rotations rather than a steady directional auction.
Technology carried the largest net selling at -$1.6 billion with a -70.7% dollar lean, a notable wholesale-level sell signal. Major stocks offered included NVDA at $488.9 million, LRCX at $350.2 million, INTC at $254.5 million, SNDK at $219.4 million, META at $211.4 million, and PM at $163.2 million. AMAT, KLAC, IBM, TXN, and QCOM also appeared prominently on the sell side.
Buy demand was concentrated in consumer discretionary, health care, and industrials. Consumer discretionary posted a notable +75.0% dollar lean and $359.3 million net buy, while health care showed +69.9% and $367.5 million. Buyers targeted AAPL, MSFT, MU, RTX, ABBV, TSLA, MRVL, GOOGL, AMZN, and JNJ.
Utilities registered a notable +66.7% symbol lean. Energy showed -66.7%, while basic materials reached -100.0%, indicating wholesale symbol selling. Overall, the close was rotational but heavily distorted by large technology sell orders.
Daily Market Recap - Tuesday, July 14
NYSE Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 95 / 32
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 108 / 160
NYSE TRIN: 1.00
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.92
Weekly Breadth Data - Week ending Thursday, July 2
NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 254 / 114
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 477 / 390
NYSE TRIN: 0.86
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.79
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Tuesday’s session featured a powerful CPI-driven rally followed by difficult, two-sided price action. The strongest opportunities came from respecting established levels, using PTG’s confirmation tools, and recognizing when the market shifted from momentum into a choppy, trap-heavy environment.
Pre-Market Outlook
The market began a new Cycle Day 1, with the objective of establishing a secure low for the next potential rally.
The broader market remained in a downswing.
David identified 7575 and 7610 as the key levels bulls needed to clear and convert to change the market dynamic.
Overnight price had already fulfilled both Daily Trade Strategy target zones:
Upside: 7570–7580
Downside: 7535–7525
CPI Reaction
CPI came in cooler than expected, producing an immediate bullish response.
Price jumped approximately 70 points following the release.
David quickly reminded traders to remain mindful of the 7610 level, which had produced multiple rejections during the previous session.
The PTG Cycle Day Trend performed especially well around the announcement:
It identified the buy before the CPI release.
It also identified the sell near the post-release reaction.
Members noted that the CPI move was captured effectively through the combination of:
Cycle Trend signals
Bull and bear stackers
Bid/ask volume ratio
CCI execution events
Early Trading Conditions
Early VWAP near 7565 held and produced a strong buying response.
David maintained an early long lean if price shifted into the appropriate execution mode.
Price remained inside the three-day central pivot zone, indicating overall neutrality.
The Gamma Guys volatility trigger near 7581 became another important reference level.
A downward-sloping 34 EMA also acted as overhead resistance.
Positive Trades and Observations
The strongest trade signals came from the Cycle Trend system surrounding the CPI release.
One member reported a successful short near 7578 after price broke below a marked horizontal support level.
Traders who respected VWAP, resistance, moving averages, and execution-chart confirmation were able to identify quality opportunities.
The room demonstrated strong awareness of when price was trading near meaningful decision points rather than chasing movement in the middle of the range.
Market Character
After the initial CPI volatility, price became increasingly choppy and rotational.
David described the session as a “trader’s market” rather than an institutional trend market.
The day featured:
Frequent snaps and traps
Long upper and lower wicks
Significant movement without smooth follow-through
Repeated reversals near key levels
Although the market moved considerably, the rhythm made sustained trades difficult to manage.
Lessons Learned
Large price movement does not always create easy trading conditions.
Neutral central-pivot conditions should encourage patience and reduced expectations.
Multiple confirmations are especially important during news-driven and trap-heavy sessions.
Traders should avoid entering in the middle of a range where risk-to-reward is poor.
Smaller targets and quicker risk management may be more appropriate on choppy days.
The room discussed a common trading mistake: cutting winning trades too quickly while allowing losing trades too much room.
Traders were reminded that some tools, such as the DOM, may create unnecessary distraction when clearer execution tools are available.
The 89 EMA was reinforced as an important trading-rule reference.
Overall Takeaway
The session rewarded traders who reacted to structure rather than emotion.
The CPI release created excellent early opportunity, and the PTG tools identified the move effectively.
Once conditions became neutral and “wicky,” selectivity became more important than activity.
The central lesson was to recognize the market environment, trust confluence, protect capital, and avoid forcing trades when follow-through is unreliable.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Market Tone
Stocks are extending gains ahead of a heavy earnings calendar and fresh inflation data.
Tech and AI-linked names remain the strongest area of the market, helping the Nasdaq lead.
Volatility remains contained, suggesting traders are still comfortable adding risk.
Key Macro Catalysts
PPI and Empire State Manufacturing: 8:30 a.m. ET
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testimony: 10:00 a.m. ET
New York Fed President John Williams: 10:00 a.m. ET
Crude oil inventories: 10:30 a.m. ET
Fed Beige Book: 2:00 p.m. ET
A softer PPI reading could strengthen expectations for Q3 rate cuts and support equity valuations. A hotter print may pressure rate-sensitive sectors and tighten financial conditions.
Global and Sector Themes
Oil is holding near a one-month high as tensions with Iran remain elevated.
Higher crude prices could support energy stocks but create inflation concerns for the broader market.
China’s weaker growth may weigh on cyclicals, industrials, materials, and companies with significant China exposure.
AI investment remains a major market driver, with Meta reportedly committing more than $50 billion to a new initiative.
A proposed $53 billion-plus acquisition of PayPal is helping support M&A and fintech sentiment.
Earnings Watch
Before the open:
ASML
BNY
BlackRock
Cintas
Elevance Health
Johnson & Johnson
Morgan Stanley
PNC
Progressive
After the close:
J.B. Hunt
Kinder Morgan
United Airlines
Thursday morning:
Abbott Laboratories
GE Aerospace
Prologis
State Street
Taiwan Semiconductor
ES Technical Levels
Resistance: 7690–7695
Next upside area: All-time high and the 7700s
Support: 7538–7542
50-day moving average: 7525.25
Lower support: 7180–7185
Higher resistance: 8110–8115
ES remains in a short-term uptrend channel. No whale bias was identified because overnight large-trader volume was too light to be significant.
